Hanoi, March 6, 2026 — From March 3 to 6, the Institute of Strategy and Policy for Agriculture and Environment, in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme, the UN Environment Programme's World Conservation Monitoring Centre, and partners, organized a series of workshops aimed at promoting the integration of nature's values into economic policymaking and development planning.

The workshop series included: (i) a technical session on March 3 on the application of GTAP-InVEST for integrated development and spatial planning; and (ii) a high-level policy dialogue on March 6 focusing on pathways and mechanisms to incorporate analytical results into national decision-making processes. The events were chaired by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, with participation from representatives of various relevant ministries and sectors. The events were organized under the Nature Transition Support Programme (NTSP), a global initiative that supports countries in integrating the value of nature into economic policymaking. During the policy dialogue on March 6, UNDP also introduced several key findings from the upcoming Blue Book 2.0 - expected to be released in mid-April 2026. The report provides additional visual and analytical perspectives on marine spatial planning, ocean governance, and trade-offs, focusing on two major marine economic sectors: renewable energy - particularly offshore wind potential - and fisheries (marine aquaculture). The analysis examines their relationships with seaports and maritime shipping routes across key growth regions, including Northern Vietnam (the Hải Phòng - Quảng Ninh area in the Red River Delta), Central Vietnam (the coastal area of former Ninh Thuận - Khánh Hòa), and Southern Vietnam (the coastal area of former Bạc Liêu - Cà Mau) within the broader growth landscape. In addition to providing modern tools for marine spatial planning, the publication is expected to offer a new vision for integrated marine governance and management in Vietnam, thereby effectively supporting decision-making, identifying emerging opportunities, and shaping a sustainable blue economy for the future.

Across East Asia, including Vietnam, rapid growth over many years has often followed a familiar pattern: high investment rates, expansion of industrial zones, development of infrastructure-transport corridors, and real estate-led urbanization. This model has delivered significant gains in output and employment, but it has also implicitly regarded land and ecosystems as an "unlimited resource." Trends in land use in Vietnam suggest that this assumption is quickly losing its validity. In the coming period, growth capacity will increasingly depend on natural systems, which provide the foundation for sustaining production, infrastructure, and resilience to risk.

As Vietnam aims to become a high-income country by 2045, a growth model that relies heavily on natural resources is beginning to reveal long-term risks. Vietnam currently faces an ecological deficit of around 220 percent, meaning its demand for natural resources exceeds the regenerative capacity of its domestic ecosystems. At the same time, Vietnam is experiencing rapid economic growth, with GDP rising from USD 79 billion in 1990 to over USD 1.6 trillion in 2024, accompanied by considerable pressure on the environment and natural resources.

Through the workshop series, participating agencies and partners introduced new analytical tools, including the GTAP-InVEST model under NTSP, which helps quantify the impacts of land-use change and ecosystem-service degradation on productivity and the economy's "hidden" costs under the business-as-usual and green transition scenarios. At the same time, Blue Book 2.0 provides additional scenario analyses of marine spatial planning and governance, highlighting the marine economy's role as an important driver of Viet Nam's future growth. The analysis suggests that if development continues along the current trajectory with the rapid reduction of available land for infrastructure, industrial development, and residential use, nature degradation could reduce Vietnam's potential GDP growth by up to 26 percent by 2030. As land becomes increasingly scarce, growth driven by infrastructure expansion and spatial expansion will face diminishing returns, higher conflict-related costs, and rising climate and disaster risks that threaten the long-term value of investments. For an economy constrained by land limitations, such as Vietnam, maintaining a "grey" investment model for too long could lead to the accumulation of ecological debt and systemic risks, which may eventually become a significant constraint on future growth.

Conversely, if Vietnam invests early and effectively in protecting and restoring nature, the economy could achieve higher, more sustainable long-term growth.

The Nature Transition Support Programme is funded by the United Kingdom's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs through the Global Centre on Biodiversity for Climate. It is currently being implemented in Ecuador, Colombia, Ghana, and Viet Nam.

Media Inquiries:
Institute of Strategy and Policy for Agriculture and Environment
Dr. Nguyễn Gia Thọ
Email: Nguyengiatho88@gmail.com
Mobile: 0978123789

UNDP
Phan Huong Giang   
UNDP Media and Communications Analyst, Climate Change, Energy and Environment 
Email: phan.huong.giang@undp.org 
Mobile: 0948466688

INFORMATION ABOUT THE ORGANIZERS AND PARTNERS
Institute of Strategy and Policy for Agriculture and Environment (ISPAE):
ISPAE is a leading scientific research institute under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE). The Institute focuses on developing policies to support agricultural development, environmental protection, climate change response, and the promotion of sustainable development in Vietnam.

UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC):
UNEP-WCMC is the global technical delivery partner of the Nature Transition Support Programme (NTSP), supporting governments in establishing a robust scientific foundation to help balance economic growth, human well-being, and the richness of nature.

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP):
UNDP serves as the national coordinating agency for the project, ensuring that international climate commitments are translated into resilient national actions. UNDP also led the 2022 Blue Book initiative (Blue Economy Scenarios for Viet Nam) and is currently updating and finalizing the upcoming Blue Book 2.0 on Vietnam’s blue economy. The preparation of Blue Book 2.0 is especially meaningful as Vietnam moves into a period of significant restructuring of its marine economic sectors to support sustainable growth, enhance climate resilience, and align more closely with international standards of ocean governance.