LocationsEarly Warning System in the Kyrgyz Republic: Real-Time Risk Monitoring
June 27, 2025
Daurbek Sakyev, Director of the Department of Monitoring and Forecasting at the Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations
Nestled in the heart of Central Asia, amidst its majestic mountains and glittering glaciers, the Kyrgyz Republic faces a subtle yet perilous threat: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). As glaciers melt at an unprecedented rate, these lakes pose a significant risk to vulnerable mountain communities.
Daurbek Sakyev, Director of the Department of Monitoring and Forecasting at the Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES), is acutely aware of the danger: "We have over 2,000 high-altitude lakes, and 368 of them are recognised as potentially hazardous. And with each passing year, as the glaciers recede, new ones form. Each presents a potential catastrophe.”
To effectively address this risk, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic, with the support of the Government of Japan and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), is implementing innovative solutions. A key element has been the integration of an AI-powered IT module into the Unified System of Comprehensive Monitoring and Forecasting of Emergency Situations (USCMFES), enhancing the accuracy of predictions and the efficiency of decision-making when faced with the threat of GLOFs and mudflows.
In Kyrgyzstan there are over 2,000 high-altitude lakes, and 368 of them are recognised as potentially hazardous
"The system enables the automated analysis of vast datasets, including satellite imagery and meteorological station data, and facilitates retrospective analysis of lake conditions," explains Daurbek Sakyev. "It independently identifies changes in a lake’s state, assesses increases in its surface area, and issues an alert to specialists if the situation becomes a cause for concern.”
A significant advantage of the system is its capacity to rapidly disseminate threat warnings through a variety of communication channels: the '112 Kyrgyzstan' mobile app, SMS messaging, radio, and television. This empowers local authorities and MES services to take timely protective measures, including the evacuation of populations from at-risk areas.
The system's effectiveness has already been demonstrated in practice. In July 2024, its operation enabled the timely identification of a potential outburst flood at Lake Zyndan West in the Issyk-Kul region. Analysis of satellite data revealed a rapid increase in water levels, triggering the prompt evacuation of residents from the village of Tuura-Suu.
The integrated AI-powered IT module
"Thanks to the timely evacuation, we were able to avert loss of life and minimise material damage. Previously, such operations would have required weeks of preparation and significant resources; the system now accomplishes this automatically and with considerable precision,"Mr. Sakyev emphasises.
Daurbek Sakyev, Director of the Department of Monitoring and Forecasting at the Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations
Previously, assessing the condition of glacial lakes required MES personnel to organise costly and arduous expeditions into the mountains or to deploy helicopters. The new automated system not only significantly accelerates the monitoring process but also reduces costs substantially. As part of the project, a state-of-the-art automatic hydrometeorological station was also installed in Cholpon-Ata and Chon-Sary-Oi, providing round-the-clock monitoring of precipitation and temperature. This has greatly strengthened the capabilities of the early warning system, particularly in areas with a high risk of mudflows and flooding.
"The development and implementation of this innovative system has been made possible by the close collaboration and dedicated work of the teams at the MES and UNDP," notes Mr. Sakyev. "We were able to realise this ambitious project in a short timeframe, despite the lack of similar systems in the region. This represents a genuine breakthrough, not only for Kyrgyzstan but for the whole of Central Asia.”
The system's adaptability for monitoring other natural hazards, such as landslides and floods, makes it a versatile tool for building resilience. Future plans include scaling up the project to other regions of Kyrgyzstan, including the Osh, Naryn, and Jalal-Abad provinces. Furthermore, other countries in the region, including Nepal and India, have expressed an interest in the system.
The partnership between UNDP and the Government of Japan has strengthened national capacities to monitor glacial lakes and reduce the risk of outburst floods through real-time data, community engagement and proactive mitigation measures. As a result, 1,663 metres of mudflow diversion channels were reinforced, 150 households received direct protection, and 10 community groups were trained and fully equipped. The initiative included the installation of 2 automated weather stations and the development of a national AI-based monitoring system, forming the basis of the newly established Unified System of Comprehensive Monitoring and Forecasting of Emergency Situations.
This demonstrates that investment in innovative technologies and international cooperation are key factors in ensuring security and sustainable development in the face of a changing climate.
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