LocationsWhen climate becomes personal: the story of Gulzhan
November 21, 2025
“I come from western Kazakhstan, where sand meets wind, drought challenges farmers, and drinking water is a scarce resource. In these lands, you learn early that climate change is not an abstract concept; it’s your tomorrow,” says Gulzhan Yermekova, a climate risk assessment expert.
For nearly a decade, Gulzhan has worked on sustainable development, climate change, and adaptation. With a background in applied mathematics and economics, she has combined technical expertise with a deep commitment to the country’s future. Her journey from university lecture halls to becoming a leading expert in climate adaptation began with personal observations of environmental change.
Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, has vast land resources suitable for agriculture. Yet more than 75 percent of agricultural soils are degraded, threatening food security and undermining the resilience of the agrarian sector. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing water scarcity are expected to reduce productivity in crop farming, livestock, fisheries, and forestry. The most vulnerable, rural communities and smallholder farmers, face food insecurity and economic instability.
Despite its agricultural potential, Kazakhstan uses only a fraction of its capacity. While climate factors play a role, inefficiencies in land management and limited access to scientific and technical resources are more significant barriers.
“For a long time, national and local authorities lacked a unified tool to assess vulnerability and plan adaptation measures systematically. That’s why we decided to develop a national climate risk assessment methodology to help public and private institutions make data-driven decisions,”Gulzhan explains.
As part of a UNDP and Green Climate Fund-supported project on integrating climate adaptation into strategic planning, Gulzhan led the development of Kazakhstan’s national climate risk assessment methodology. The tool enables the mapping of climate risks and vulnerabilities, the identification of the most exposed regions, sectors, and population groups, and the prioritization of adaptation measures. It provides a standardized approach to data collection and analysis, allowing for comparisons across regions and sectors and supporting evidence-based planning.
“In designing the methodology, I drew on key international frameworks: the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ISO standards 31000 and 14091, approaches from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and GIZ, and indicators from UNICEF and the International Organization for Migration, to ensure inclusivity and sectoral relevance,”Gulzhan notes.
The pilot phase focused on four climate-sensitive sectors: water resources, agriculture, forestry, and emergency response. Gulzhan believes the methodology can be adapted for other sectors, such as energy, health, and transport, and applied in infrastructure, water management, and agricultural planning.
Climate risk assessment includes several interlinked components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability, in turn, is defined by sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
“Take drought risk in agriculture, for example: the drought itself is the hazard; areas with intensive farming and water scarcity are exposed; and farms without irrigation systems or drought-resistant crops are highly sensitive and therefore vulnerable. If a region has modern irrigation, monitoring systems, and government support, its adaptive capacity is higher, and overall climate risk is lower,” Gulzhan explains.
To ensure the methodology is used effectively, it was essential to train decision-makers. From August to October 2025, UNDP in Kazakhstan, in partnership with the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, conducted a nationwide series of climate adaptation workshops. Participants included civil servants, specialists, NGO representatives, academics, experts from Kazhydromet, and climate professionals.
“These workshops were not only a platform for learning but also for peer exchange,” Gulzhan says. “Participants learned how to translate climate indicators: temperature, precipitation, extreme events, into risk assessments and apply the results in real-world decision-making.”
During group sessions, Gulzhan and sectoral experts guided participants through the practical application of the methodology. Interactive exercises helped participants build skills in identifying risks and analysing climate vulnerability.
Participants from Uralsk and Turkestan shared how they plan to apply the knowledge in their daily work:
“In West Kazakhstan, climate change manifests as rising average temperatures, more hot days, droughts, desertification, and increased fire risks. This year, we saw floods due to early snowmelt. The training gave us practical tools, and now we’ll use them to prepare for flood season,” says Yerzhan Uteshev, Chief Specialist at the Emergency Prevention Department in West Kazakhstan Region.
“I’ve attended many trainings, but this one stood out. We gained practical tools and had the chance to exchange experiences with experts from different fields. I took away a lot of useful insights for my work,” says Shakhzoda Tursynkhodzhaeva, Senior Researcher at the Sustainable Development Research Centre of the Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University.
Climate adaptation is becoming part of strategic planning. Sector representatives across Kazakhstan now have tools to prioritize actions and the knowledge to develop their own vulnerability maps.
“For me, this is more than a project. It’s a way to apply technical knowledge, most importantly, to protect those living in high-risk areas and to support decision-makers with practical solutions. It’s our team’s contribution to a sustainable future for Kazakhstan,” Gulzhan concludes.
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