Enhancing Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

Enhancing Multi-Hazard Early Warning System to increase resilience of Uzbekistan communities to climate change-induced hazards

Project Summary:

Climate change has been leading to more frequent and more intense hydrometeorological disasters resulting in greater exposure and impact e.g., the economic effect of flooding in Uzbekistan due to climate change can be estimated at US$ 236 million. Uzbekistan sets climate change adaptation as a priority in its first Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement highlighting the need to establish a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS).   Accordingly, this project will respond to the critical need for modernization of the country’s early warning system into an impact-based MHEWS (initially focused on floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches and hydrological drought in the more populous and economically important eastern mountainous regions of Ferghana Valley), an essential element of the country’s climate risk management framework. In the face of increasing climate risks, this system will serve to enhance the climate resilience of the people of Uzbekistan (indirect beneficiaries), including the most vulnerable and poor rural communities living in mountainous areas currently at risk from climate-induced hazards.

Expected results:

  1. Enhance the efficiency and coverage of a multi-hazard early warning system for climate change-induced hazards in Uzbekistan given the projected climate change impacts;
  2. Introduce the impact-based MHEWS based on the socio-economic risk modelling; 
  3. Explore and facilitate elements of forecast-based financing as an innovative paradigm-shifting approach to the use of climate data in decision-making;
  4. Transform the current EWS in Uzbekistan from “a reactive” to “a proactive” one based on preventive warnings ahead of events based on the improved efficiency in collecting and generating/forecasting weather and climate information;
  5. Development of methods and systems for translation of weather/climate information/forecasts into actionable warnings that are disseminated to users who understand their content and how best to react; 
  6. Enhance the capability of detecting, monitoring, analysis and forecasting avalanches, flooding, droughts, landslides, and mudflows in Uzbekistan;
  7. Develop impact-based risk knowledge products to enable warning dissemination and forecast-based actions in targeted areas.