The world of development has entered a new era of complexity, driven by shifts in geopolitics, the rise of AI, growing inequalities, and the planetary crisis of climate change and ecological disruption. The latter is particularly consequential, with atmospheric carbon having reaches levels not seen in over three million years, and ecosystems likely facing onset of the sixth mass extinction in the Earth’s history. Given the far-reaching consequences for future development pathways, the upcoming 2026 edition of the Human Development Report (HDR) will focus on planetary and human futures, proposing new metrics on the human-nature relationship, and exploring aspirational approaches to reconnect people and planet. 

Far from an academic exercise, the planetary crisis is no longer a dystopian tale of the future, already reversing countries’ won development gains. This is no more apparent than in the context of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). As highlighted in a new Background Paper for the HDR on  SIDS and the Future of Development – Reparatory Solutions for People and Planet, Caribbean SIDS in particular are on the frontlines of the planetary crisis, with critical lessons for rethinking future development pathways. A case in point is Hurricane Melissa. 

Making landfall on 28 October 2025 in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa was the worst such event in the country’s recorded history, setting new global records, and bringing loss and damage to infrastructure, property, livelihoods and ecosystems - equal to 57% of the country’s GDP. For a country that produced negligible carbon emissions, but faces the brunt of climate impacts, this has emerged as a globally relevant and historic case of the injustice and far reaching impacts of the planetary crisis. In the days after landfall, my team and I at the UNDP Multi-Country Office in Jamaica visited the epicenter of impact, near the towns of Black River and New Hope. 

Among many impacted community members, we met Keith, a resident who experienced firsthand ways in which the planetary crisis is reshaping human development. Keith arose that day and upon looking up saw a tunnel of light descending straight down from the sky, through which he saw the shining sun above, and what he described as a beautiful yellow and orange glow radiating all around. At first, he thought the storm had passed, but he was wrong. Keith was in the eye of the hurricane. Not long after he was pummelled to the ground by the record setting winds. Quickly grabbing a stray piece of sheet metal, he ran to a nearby structure, kneeled in a corner and held tight to the thin sheet for hours. Upon opening his eyes, what Keith saw was unimaginable devastation. The lush watersheds and forest landscapes that fuelled local livelihoods were decimated, as were his local shop and household. 

Keith was born in New Hope, as were his parents and others before them. Resilience to injustice and crisis is deep rooted in this part of the world. Just down the road, the town of Black River was home to the infamous Zong massacre of 1781, where after passing torrential storms the captain of the ship Zong threw overboard 133 slaves before arriving at Black River port, part of a ploy to receive a disaster insurance payout from the loss. The epicenter of Hurricane Melissa’s landfall expresses sharply the connections between past, present and future and the socially and ecological extractive foundations of modernity. Hurricane Melissa arose with a vengeance from the depths of this abyss, but she was supercharged by modernity’s climate crisis. 

The ferocity of this event reminds us that planetary and human futures have roots in the past, and that it may replicate itself again in the future, unless collective actions are taken to secure a more just and resilient future. While scaled up actions on inclusive development, climate adaptation and ecosystem restoration are needed across SIDS, an equally urgency task is to recast conventional development paradigms, with a view to new aspirational solutions that can reconnect humans and nature. 

To this end, a Thought Leaders Dialogue was co-convened in June 2026 by UNDP and The University of the West Indies (UWI); a consultation to bring forth the lived experiences of Caribbean SIDS into the HDR process. The dialogue mobilized academic thought leaders from various disciplines across UWI and leadership from UNDP’s Human Development Report Office, to share insights on ways to break through the epistemic boundaries of conventional development approaches. As noted during the dialogue, the severity of Hurricane Melissa reshaped communities and landscapes, but it also catalysed government and communities to rethink development. The outcomes of the discussions can be clustered into three key areas of future action, aligned with UNDPs 2030 global Nature Pledge. 

A key means of transformation is through a Value Shift. The existential nature of Hurricane Melissa resonated deeply across society, a moment which is catalysing a shift in values as decision-makers and communities increasingly recognizing nature as a foundation for human security and resilience. Moving forward, scope exists to build on this process to rethinking key features of classic development systems. One example is the central concept of agency, with calls to shift from conventional human-centred approaches, to embrace new distributed concepts of agency within ecosystems at the centre. Many also see the rise of a new spirit of enviornment citizenship and ecological rights emerging. This builds on the 2026 Bengal case, the first ever decision by the Supreme Court of Jamaica under Article 33 of the Constitutional on the right to a health environment, the first such provision in the Caribbean. This seen as a landmark expression of a greater recognition of nature as a basis of fundamental freedoms at the base of development, and enhanced citizen access to participation and justice in development policy setting and decision-making. 

Experts also see scope for a Finance Shift, to scale up ecosystem restoration and find synergies with much needed loss and damage finance, and increasing calls and legal process underway for reparatory justice and compensation for historic injustices. Increasingly the nexus between social and ecological restoration and reparations is important for building real resilience at the community level. Meanwhile, debt swaps are also a key area for future exploration, with recent expansion of large-scale debt for nature swaps in Caribbean SIDS like Belize and The Bahamas, with $364 million and $124 million relocated to community and ecosystem resilience goals, and replication potentials across other SIDS.  

Lastly, potentials are seen through a Policy Shift. Stronger calls have emerged for a shift from extractive-based development to nature-based pathways, along with systems to achieve social and environmental justice at the community level. Generally the orientation of development paradigms and policies should shift to be more future ready in an era of complexity, seeing development not as the product of a linear pathway to a set of targets, but as the emergent property of a complex socio-ecological system. Key to this are policy approaches that address the historic legacies and responsibilities for social and ecological loss and damage via new reparatory approaches to development. 

A deep nexus is emerging between historic roots of socio-ecological vulnerability and the existential nature of today’s planetary crisis, from which an aspirational set of solutions are emerging. This could well result in coming years in a transition from the abyss of socio-ecological tragedies and injustices, towards a new era of nature based values, financing and policies, and an aspired future where people and planet are at peace.