LocationsWho matters most? Mapping Early Warning Systems in the Western Balkans
July 17, 2025
Torrential rain triggered devastating flash floods and landslides, cutting off roads, bridges, and railways - particularly impacting Jablanica and nearby Donja Jablanica, where 19 lives were tragically lost.
We are living in exceptionally unstable times - an era marked by overlapping and accelerating crises, where disasters are becoming more frequent, severe and unpredictable.
The Western Balkans, a recognized hotspot for climate and natural hazards in Europe, are no exception to this growing trend of instability and disaster risk. Over the past 20 years, 118 natural hazards, e.g. hydrological, meteorological and geophysical events, have impacted over 4 million people and caused more than US$6.6 billion in damages. Extreme weather is rapidly becoming the new normal, with the region ranking as highly vulnerable across most key dimensions of climate resilience. Projected climate change is expected to intensify the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, further straining resilience efforts and deepening vulnerabilities in affected communities.
Meanwhile, risks are growing faster than they are being reduced, driven by poverty, climate change, rapid urbanization and environmental degradation, contributing to a sense of precarity, and we must navigate with fewer safety nets. As Zygmunt Bauman observed in his "liquid modernity" concept of, traditional stability has given way to constant uncertainty, demanding more adaptive, transformative approaches, including forward-looking disaster risk governance. Therefore, a more coordinated, systemic, multipartner and inclusive approach to disaster risk reduction is critically needed.
Early warning systems, once viewed as a purely technical endeavour, are now a cornerstone of disaster risk governance. Building on these changes, the Early Warnings for All initiative offers a timely opportunity to strengthen risk governance in the Western Balkans by delivering inclusive, actionable alerts that connect central systems with local needs and regional cooperation.
Reconstruction of the Gropat–Štodra embankment on the Bojana/Buna River, shared between Montengero and Albania and the outlet of the Drin River Basin.
The early warning systems architecture in the Western Balkans
Following the successful pivotal mapping of early warning system stakeholders across Central Asia, UNDP and UNDRR replicated this crucial exercise in the Western Balkans to comprehensively analyze the early warning system landscape and its key actors, such as domestic institutions, municipalities, research and development entities, academia, the private sector, at-risk communities, Red Cross societies, NGOs, international organisations and international financial institutions. This foundational understanding is vital for identifying current gaps and opportunities, ensuring the region can build the integrated, cross-border and people-centred early warning capacities essential for navigating the complex poly-crisis environment.
The challenges in the Western Balkans are similar to those we saw in Central Asia.
Early warning systems are fragmented, and multi-hazard approaches are not prioritized in policy decisions. Insufficient observation networks, limited automation and digitalisation, and chronic underinvestment continue to undermine the region’s capacity to anticipate, prepare for and respond to complex, interconnected risks. Disaster risk management agencies are primarily responsible for issuing alerts, limiting integration across the early warning system value chain. There aren't clear, consistent rules for how official alerts get out during emergencies, and social media messaging is not standardized, leading to confusion and potential misinformation. Lack of cell broadcasting, weak last-mile communication and failure to incorporate gender and disability perspectives severely undermines the effectiveness, reach and equity of early warning systems. The private sector and media are still not on board in supporting effective warning dissemination, and there is limited engagement from all partners, especially the communities most at risk.
Despite these difficulties, many commendable achievements have been observed across the region, encompassing both domestic initiatives and transboundary collaborations:
- National Forest Fire Information Systems and Eco-DRR solutions have been introduced across the Western Balkans, with support from the Japanese International Cooperation Agency, enhancing fire prevention, early warning and regional cooperation through integrated web-GIS platforms;
- In the Drin River Basin, a UNDP-led project supports Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia in strengthening basin-wide flood risk governance, early warning systems and enhancing community resilience to climate-induced flooding;
- The Southeast European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System strengthens forecasting and warning systems for meteorological and hydrological hazards across 18 countries by harmonising transboundary forecasts, enabling impact-based forecasting and enhancing national systems through shared tools and data.
- European Union support has and continues to strengthen regional cooperation, improve civil protection systems and enhance early warning efforts aligned with the EU’s Disaster Resilience Goals and Civil Protection Mechanism.
Charting the next steps
Prioritizing multi-hazard disaster risk reduction approaches, particularly through, scaled-up early warning systems and anticipatory actions, is more critical than ever, especially in times of shrinking funds and increasing risks. This requires not only improving policies and technology, but also actively incorporating the voices of local communities, vulnerable groups, NGOs, academia and the private sector in how risks are understood, anticipated and managed.
Tapping into early warning system expertise across the region can foster cross-sector collaboration, enabling timely, tailored disaster risk solutions that build trust and empower communities. Their coordinated efforts enhance system resilience and support a shift toward treating early warning systems as proactive tools for integrated prevention and preparedness.
We also need enhanced data, faster forecasts and smarter tools, like AI, to enable timely and effective early action. But even the most advanced technology is ineffective if warnings fail to reach people in ways they can understand and trust; hence, clear communication, tailored alerts and meaningful engagement with media and the private sector are vital. Ultimately, this is about saving lives, protecting livelihoods and ensuring every community has a fair chance to prepare before and to respond during disasters.
By 2030, the post-Sendai era demands a paradigm shift towards a broader, systemic vision of resilience and risk-informed development, critically underpinned by robust early warning systems. Disaster risk reduction must cease to be voluntary; instead, it must become fundamental to all countries' socio-economic progress.
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