LocationsClimate, land and security risks go hand-in-hand in Central Asia
April 15, 2025
The Kara-Kuldzha river at Alatai National Park in Kyrgyzstan. Central Asia is facing risks of desert and mountain ecosystem degradation and water scarcity.
Central Asia is a region of diverse and breathtaking landscapes, from high mountains to fertile valleys. Its abundant natural resources offer great potential for agriculture, economic growth and sustainable development. The region could serve as a vital trade corridor and a hub for sustainable energy, creating opportunities for lasting stability and peace.
Today, the region is grappling with increasing climate vulnerability, fragility and severe droughts, making it one of the most water-stressed areas globally. Temperatures are rising faster than the global average, glaciers are melting at accelerated rates and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. These challenges are leading to land degradation and resource scarcity, exacerbating socio-economic fragilities and posing risks to social cohesion and security.
Central Asia already witnessed one of the world's largest ecological disasters in recent history — the Aral Sea crisis. The drying up of one of the largest freshwater bodies globally has triggered rural-urban migration and displacement. The Aral Sea crisis stands as a stark reminder of the urgent need to transition towards shared goals through cross-border and transboundary cooperation on natural resources. Water scarcity and drought continue to threaten this cooperation, potentially destabilizing social cohesion and increasing geopolitical risks over access to shared resources.
For centuries, the people of Central Asia have depended on their shared resources to support life and livelihoods. These resources are now under severe risk. The rapid melting of glaciers, which supply water to millions, further jeopardizes water security while impacting both agriculture and hydropower energy. Unsustainable management of natural resources has led to rapid land degradation and loss of vital ecosystems. This accelerated degradation, along with increasing water scarcity, could undermine community resilience and regional stability, particularly in areas like the Ferghana Valley and the high mountains.
Tackling these issues requires integrated and collaborative approaches that address the complex and multi-dimensional challenges of the region. Central Asian countries must work together to enhance regional cooperation, fostering trust and dialogue over shared resources like water and land. Amid these challenges, UNDP is supporting the region through integrated, conflict-sensitive policies and programmes.
The Peace Forest Initiative in Central Asia is a collaborative initiative led by United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and UNDP, in partnership with other partners and regional actors which promotes regional collaboration on ecosystem restoration. The first stage of dialogues are crucial for setting the stage to catalyze the concrete restoration work on the ground, which will not only protect the ecosystems but also ensure their long-term stability and support social cohesion around and within them.
Last year’s regional consultation identified three priority areas—those especially vulnerable to severe land degradation and hotspots for social tension and cross-border conflicts—for collaboration and resource mobilization: 1) the Ferghana Valley, 2) the high mountains, and 3) biodiversity conservation.
In the Ferghana Valley, sustainable pasture management and erosion control measures can address land degradation in overgrazed and flood-prone areas. The initiative will promote reforestation programmes, anti-mudflow and anti-erosion forest plantations, and the restoration of critical riparian woodlands that stabilize riverbanks and support biodiversity. Water-saving irrigation technologies and reinforcement of transboundary riverbeds will improve water retention and boost agricultural productivity
High-altitude mountain areas are prone to deforestation, overgrazing and soil erosion, particularly in upstream watersheds in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan that supply 30-40 percent of the region’s freshwater. The initiative is prioritizing transboundary landscapes where shared resources impact inter-community social cohesion and cross-border areas at risk of land and water disputes. Additionally, the initiative addresses land degradation and resource scarcity in regions affected by the shrinking of the Aral Sea.
To improve biodiversity and drought resilience in mountain and desert transboundary areas, targeted actions such as reforestation, protected area development and early-warning systems will be deployed.
Strengthening community cooperation in managing shared natural resources will promote equitable access to those resources and foster social cohesion and environmental stability, reducing resource-driven tensions.
But building this resilience and stability across Central Asia takes more than just dialogue and singular actions. Our initiative must also strengthen regional cooperation among Central Asian countries to build trust over shared natural resources, including water and land; deploy integrated solutions that address both climate resilience and socio-economic challenges, ensuring that climate actions contribute to social cohesion and stability; and leverage partnerships with international organizations, governments and communities to address the challenges and turn them into opportunities for growth and stability.
Together, the people of Central Asia can overcome the region’s fragility and build a sustainable and resilient future.
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