Dear Mr. Tran Quoc Phuong, Vice Minister, Ministry of Planning and Investment

Mr. Dang Xuan Quang, Vice President, NCIF, President, National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast, Ministry of Planning and Investment

Representatives from ministries, research institutions and the private sector;

Colleagues from UN agencies and International Development Partner Agencies

Representatives from media organizations

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Good morning!

It is an honor to welcome you to the second Viet Nam Economic Pulse (VEP) on the topic of sustaining the recovery from Covid-19 and prospects for growth in 2023.

A year ago, UNDP and the Ministry of Planning and Investment launched the first VEP to create a new channel to engage government officials, academic institutions, the business community and civil society in debates concerning economic affairs and socio-economic development policy. As the economy grows and becomes more complex, it helps to widen the discussion beyond government and development partners, to bring in the diverse perspectives of business leaders and scholars on key development issues. VEP was envisioned as an informal forum, at which participants with varied backgrounds, interest and expertise could exchange views and insights in open, relaxed discussions. Our aim was to focus less on protocol and more on the substance of the issues to help bring some clarity to the complex economic challenges facing businesses, communities and the country as a whole.

Today Forum is the second in the series and focuses on factors contributing to the economic recovery from Covid-19 and policies to sustain the recovery in 2023. Since the time of our last forum, economic conditions have improved dramatically. Thanks to an effective and universal Covid-19 vaccination program, and a flexible policy response, the domestic economy has rebounded strongly from the last quarter of 2021. Retail spending is growing by 15% year on year, indicating that households are in a better position and that domestic consumption can once again propel economic growth. Exports are growing and the return of international tourism has helped restart the important hospitality and transport sectors.

The risks to sustaining the recovery are mostly external. War in the Ukraine, economic slowdown in China, rising international interest rates and a strengthening dollar and the growing risk of recession in Europe could affect demand for Viet Nam’s exports and increase the risks of macroeconomic instability. Policy makers will need to remain vigilant, adjusting fiscal and monetary policy in a timely manner as global conditions evolve.  

There are also domestic risks, especially in the banking and bond markets, which are sensitive to rapidly changing conditions in the property sector. The negative impact of climate change will increasingly weigh on agricultural production and on the health and well-being of communities affected by sea level rise, flooding, drought and high-intensive storms.

I look forward to today’s presentations and open and constructive discussions that to help clarify some of the strategic choices facing the country as it strives to achieve the goals of “rich people, strong country and fair and democratic society”, along with realizing the SDGs and leaving no one behind.       

In closing, I would like to thank MPI Vice Minister Tran Quoc Phuong, NCIF Senior Management, the speakers and panels today for your cooperation and support, and wish you all participants rich and fruitful discussions, good health and great success.

Thank you.