This work addresses the pressing ecological issue of dust migration in the Southern Aral Sea region – an area experiencing high frequency and intensity of dust storms from extensive desert surfaces (Aralkum, Kyzylkum, Karakum, Ustyurt). In the absence of an emergency warning system to alert the population about hazardous dust concentrations, two mathematical models have been developed: a Long-Term Impact Model (LTI) for calculating concentration fields and a Model of Year-to-year Dynamics of atmospheric Dust load (MYDD) for forecasting.

The models are based on Earth remote sensing methods and statistical analysis of meteorological and ecological factors. A separate focus area is the quantitative assessment of ecosystem services provided by vegetation cover in protecting against salt transport from the dried Aral Seabed. For the first time, specific data on salt transport reduction based on forest plantation area are presented.

The results are valuable for developing measures to combat dust storms and improve air quality in the region.