LocationsAnticipating and planning for risk
How the European Union-UNDP partnership is advancing risk-informed development
May 7, 2026
By combining risk awareness with local capacity and economic opportunities, communities can adapt, recover and build resilience over time.
Photo: UNDP Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean
Disasters are becoming more frequent, intense and interconnected–often driven by climate change, environmental degradation and growing pressures on land and resources. For countries and regions already facing fragility or economic constraints, a single event can reverse years of development gains.
Disaster risk reduction and resilience are central to sustainable development, peace and economic stability. The partnership between the European Union (EU) and UNDP is translating this priority into action, enabling countries and communities to better understand risk, act early and reduce future vulnerability.
At the core of this work is stronger risk governance–aligning policies, institutions and finance in ways that improve preparedness, response and long-term resilience.
Anticipating and planning for risk
As countries move from reactive to anticipatory action, risks must be identified and addressed before they escalate into disasters. Early warning systems combine data, forecasting and communication to alert governments and communities before hazards strike, providing sufficient time to take preventive or evasive action.
Through EU-supported programmes, UNDP is strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems to address risks from extreme weather and other natural hazards.
In 2024, Cuba faced two hurricanes and two earthquakes within a span of 20 days. Responding to the need for better preparedness, initiatives are underway to reinforce the country’s early warning systems, bringing advanced technical monitoring to government agencies, while community-level preparedness plans ensure this information leads to action.
Community preparedness, combined with technology, is enhancing disaster resilience in Cuba.
Photo: UNDP Cuba
“Risk-informed development” allows governments to embed disaster and climate risks in planning–such as where to build roads, how to design infrastructure or allocate budgets. Across 16 countries, governments are now integrating this kind of risk information into national planning and investment processes with EU-UNDP support, ensuring that development gains are protected from future shocks.
Like Belize, where data-driven tools and community training are improving how damage and losses are assessed, generating timely and reliable information that can guide future planning and investment decisions.
Belize has been including climate risks into national planning, with special attention given to gender equality and youth involvement.
Photo: UNDP/SGP Belize
Recovering with stronger planning
When disasters happen, recovery becomes an opportunity to reduce future risks.
A joint methodology developed by the EU, the United Nations, and the World Bank, Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs) provide a structured, data-driven approach for governments to assess damage, identify recovery needs and plan reconstruction. Since 2000, over 100 PDNAs across diverse geographies and hazards have provided a foundation for long-term resilience.
Take the case of Burundi, where severe flooding in 2023-2024 affected more than 240,000 people and displaced over 48,000. A PDNA supported by the EU and UNDP conducted in early 2025 estimated total losses and damages at more than US$210 million, with significant impacts on infrastructure.
These findings have directly informed investments in the rehabilitation and modernization of the Port of Bujumbura, a key economic hub for national and regional trade. With $79 million mobilized, reconstruction is now taking place with future risks in mind. This includes improved drainage and stronger design standards to withstand future shocks. Such efforts are aligned with the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, which promotes sustainable and resilient infrastructure investments through risk-informed evidence.
Empowering communities
Advancing resilience at the community level is equally critical. By combining risk awareness with local capacity and economic opportunities, communities can adapt, recover and build resilience over time.
In Somalia, recurrent drought and climate shocks threaten livelihoods and food security for nearly 6.5 million people. To ensure food security, locally driven approaches are helping translate early warnings into timely action, such as protecting livestock and adjusting planting seasons to reduce losses and safeguard livelihoods.
Through a Disaster Volunteer Network, established with support from the EU and UNDP, a cadre of 226 community volunteers have been trained across 16 drought- and flood-affected districts to support preparedness, communication and recovery efforts.
Women are at the forefront of this network. As trusted members of their communities, they are able to reach vulnerable households more effectively, and ensure that the information provided is understood and acted upon.
Training of community youth volunteers in Somalia.
Photo: Somali Youth Volunteers Association SOYVA
A similar community-driven approach is being applied in Central Asia, where people living near uranium legacy sites–remnants of past mining and processing activities–face long-term environmental and health risks from contaminated land and water. An initiative by the EU, UNDP and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is raising awareness of these risks, while supporting communities to strengthen local planning and identify safer, sustainable livelihood options.
Building regional and transboundary cooperation
Disaster risks do not stop at national borders, making cross-border cooperation essential to build resilience.
In the Caribbean, the European Union-Caribbean-Resilient Programme (EU-CA-RES) brings together multiple partners to strengthen preparedness and recovery systems. Within this effort, UNDP is working to align recovery systems, policies and capacities by building shared approaches and capacities, so that governments can share data and learn from each other. Partnerships with regional institutions such as the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency and the Caribbean Development Bank helps translate national experiences into regional knowledge, enabling countries to address shared risks collectively.
Community-driven approaches are mitigating the inter-generational risks of uranium contamination in Central Asia.
Photo: UNDP Eurasia
Transboundary cooperation in Central Asia’s Ferghana Valley–spanning Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan–is similarly advancing shared climate and disaster risk management. Through an EU-supported programme implemented with UNDP, efforts focus on improving cross-border early warning systems, risk monitoring and data-sharing mechanisms and water management. Given the transboundary nature of key river systems and water resources in the region, these initiatives reduce disaster impacts as well as resource-related tensions.
With EU-UNDP support, climate risk early warning systems are being developed in Kyrgyzstan's Ferghana Valley.
Photo: UNDP Kyrgyzstan
In the Western Balkans, EU-supported initiatives are improving coordination between hydrometeorological services, civil protection agencies and local authorities. Efforts such as basin-wide flood risk management in shared river systems–including the Drin River Basin spanning Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia–are helping align data, modelling and early warning systems.
A future built on risk-informed development
In an era of increasing uncertainty and interconnected risks, the EU-UNDP partnership continues to strengthen how countries anticipate, prepare for and recover from disasters–building resilient systems, empowered communities and coordinated responses to advance sustainable development.
Reconstruction of the Gropat–Štodra embankment on the Bojana/Buna River, which is shared by Montengero and Albania and is the outlet of the Drin River Basin.
Photo: UNDP Montenegro
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