Global impact

This policy brief examines the global development impact of the military escalation in the Middle East. It looks at the number of people pushed into poverty, the fiscal cost of mitigating the impact and how countries can best design their policy response under varying degrees of vulnerability to the shock. 

Press Release: Global impact EN | FR | ES

Impact on Arab States

A short‑lived military escalation in the Middle East could generate profound and widespread socio‑economic impacts across the Arab States region. The analyses presented in this brief provide scenario-based estimates of potential socio-economic and human development impacts of military escalation in the Middle East, since 28 February 2026, on the Arab States region. 

Press Release: Impact on Arab States EN | FR | ES

Impact on Iran

The military escalation in the Middle East poses significant risks to the economy and human development trajectory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This brief provides a preliminary analysis of the conflict’s economic and human development impacts.

Press Release: Impact on Iran EN

Impact on Africa

The Middle East escalation is impacting Africa faster than previous global shocks, driving up prices, weakening currencies, and straining economies. In response, UNDP, AfDB, AUC, and UNECA provide recommendations for immediate measures to stabilize food, fuel and fertilizer supply, reforms strengthening energy security and regional trade, and long-term solutions for financial resilience.

Press Release: Impact on Africa EN

Impact on Asia and the Pacific

The military escalation in the Middle East poses significant risks to economic stability and human development across Asia and the Pacific through its effects on energy markets, trade, and global financial conditions. This report provides a preliminary assessment of these transmission channels and their implications for human development outcomes in the region.

Press Release: Impact on Asia and the Pacific EN