In Kazakhstan, the Economy scenario initially provides the strongest boost, driving the highest GDP gains through the mid-2040s. However, after 2046, the Governance scenario takes the lead, proving to be the most impactful driver of long-term economic growth. The Human Capital scenario results in real GDP gains above the Current Path primarily in the long run, as investments in health and education translate into a more productive workforce. In contrast, the Environment scenario yields relatively modest economic growth when pursued in isolation. However, the Integrated Reform scenario delivers both immediate and long-term benefits, making it the most effective approach for ensuring Kazakhstan's sustainable economic development.

A key focus of this analysis is its alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The study examines how different scenarios affect key SDG indicators, offering valuable insights into the effectiveness of policy interventions in driving sustainable development. This provides the government with crucial information on the progress of achieving SDGs that hold national priority.

As the Government of Kazakhstan continues to refine its long-term strategies, initial findings from this research have already highlighted crucial trends across multiple development parameters. Forecasts are essential, as they would enable a more accurate and informed assessment of the country's progress by 2030 and decades ahead. It proves that investments into the quality governance reforms can sustain growth trajectory for the next 5-year period. 

For instance, demographic projections indicate that the elderly population (aged 65 and older) will nearly double from 2023 to 2050, reaching 3.2 million people, or 13 percent of the total population. This demographic shift necessitates that we plan for significantly greater investments in elder care in the coming decades. However, the demographic growth will put pressure on urban planning and infrastructure boost, which are also important drivers of steady economic growth. 

Currently, under existing scenarios, the poverty rate in Kazakhstan is expected to gradually decline over the next decade, but not swiftly enough to eradicate poverty by 2030. Kazakhstan has eliminated “extreme” poverty, or the prevalence of people living on less than $2.15/day in 2017 PPP. However roughly 12 percent of the population – 2.3 million people – still live below the UMIC poverty threshold of $6.85/day. Projections indicate that the poverty rate will drop below 3 percent only by 2044, with an estimated 2 percent of the population — around half a million people — still living below the poverty line by mid-century. The pockets of poverty will most likely be urban, rather than rural.  

Life expectancy is anticipated to improve, reaching nearly 76 years by 2050. However, this figure will remain below the OECD average of 83 years, highlighting the urgent need for further investments in healthcare, particularly concerning non-communicable diseases and rural health services. Expansion of digital means for better healthcare outreach can help to improve the population well-being. 

Gender disparities in life expectancy are notable, with women in Kazakhstan living 8.5 years longer than men, ranking as the tenth-largest gender gap globally. Under current scenarios, this gap is projected to widen to 8.7 years, a disparity likely attributable to higher male mortality rates from injuries, occupational hazards, and lifestyle-related diseases.

This study serves as a strategic tool for the Government of Kazakhstan and UNDP, equipping policymakers with evidence-based insights to support long-term decision-making, particularly by offering alternative projections on development trends and enhancing the efficiency of strategic forecasting. By analyzing potential future trajectories, Kazakhstan can proactively design policies that maximize development opportunities while mitigating risks, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient future. These long-term projections enable the government to anticipate challenges and implement timely mitigation measures, strengthening national preparedness for evolving socio-economic and environmental dynamics.

At the same time, the study developed forward-looking scenarios that helped to define priority areas for the new UNDP country programme document 2026-2030. These scenarios were crucial in assessing UNDP’s added value of  UNDP in supporting the implementation and achievement of the National Development Plan targets. By identifying the most effective policy packages and interventions, the study aimed to increase the impact of government interventions under the new National Development Plan and strengthen domestic revenue mobilization. Analysing development pathways and identifying key catalysts for growth was also valuable in the context of shrinking donor resources. This approach helps to optimise the use of available resources and ensure effective financing of development initiatives that benefit the country on a larger scale.