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One of the central tenets of foresight is that the future is not fixed; it is shaped by a range of forces, many of which are uncertain or unpredictable.
Through foresight techniques, we try to structurally imagine the possible, anticipate the unpredictable, and reduce the element of surprise.
The process of identifying development challenges is a critical step in the foresight journey. It builds on insights from identifying drivers of change and imagining possible futures, enabling teams to articulate the key challenges that will shape the development landscape over time. This step, while intellectually demanding, is one of the most important phases of the process because it provides the foundation for actionable strategies, policies, and programming. It requires teams to think beyond current issues, leveraging a forward-looking perspective to anticipate and prepare for challenges that might emerge in the years to come.
Traditional planning processes often focus on current challenges or use forecasting based on historical data to predict future needs. While valuable, these methods are inherently limited—they tend to assume that the future will unfold as an extension of the past. This can lead to a narrow understanding of the challenges ahead, leaving teams unprepared for disruptions or emerging trends.
By engaging in this process, teams develop a future-resilient mindset, which is crucial for navigating uncertainty and ensuring that development strategies remain relevant and impactful in a changing world.
Why should you think about multiple futures when identifying future development challenges?
