Locations
The 2x2 Matrix Technique is a structured and efficient way to develop scenarios by prioritizing key drivers of change and exploring their interaction across different conditions. Below is a detailed, step-by-step guide to help teams create scenarios using this technique.
Step 1: Start with Prioritizing the Drivers of Change
Review the list of drivers of change identified in the previous sections. These drivers represent forces shaping the future development landscape. As a team, you will need to prioritize two drivers of change to focus on.
Ask the following questions to narrow down the list:
- Which drivers have the most significant potential impact on the development context?
- Which drivers are characterized by high uncertainty?
- Which drivers are interdependent or have cascading effects on other forces?
Prioritize two key drivers that are both high impact and high uncertainty and independent of each other (i.e., they don't overlap in scope or effects).
Impact refers to a driver's potential significance in shaping the future development landscape. A high-impact driver is one that could create substantial changes across sectors, systems, or populations, whether through risks, opportunities, or cascading effects.
- Consider Breadth and Depth:
- Breadth: How many people, sectors, or regions will this driver affect?
- Depth: How profound or transformative will the changes caused by this driver be?
- Evaluate Systemic Effects: Does this driver influence other drivers or systems? High-impact drivers often have cascading effects.
For example: Climate change affects migration, agriculture, health, and urban development, making it a high-impact driver.
Certainty refers to the level of agreement about whether and how a driver will manifest in the future. It's not about predicting likelihood with precision (no one has a crystal ball), but rather about assessing the degree of consensus or ambiguity surrounding the driver.
- Gauge Team Agreement: If most team members agree that the driver will evolve in a specific, predictable way, then it's likely that the driver is highly certain. If however, significant disagreement exists about how or whether the driver will evolve- it will be a highly uncertain driver.
- Examine Data and Trends: Drivers with strong, observable trends or robust evidence are typically more certain, while drivers influenced by unpredictable dynamics (e.g., political shifts) are less certain.
Tips for Assessing Impact and Certainty of Drivers
Use a Scoring System: Rate each driver on a scale of 1 to 5 for impact and certainty, using team discussions to reach a consensus.
- Facilitate Team Discussions: Use structured conversations to surface assumptions, disagreements, and different perspectives. Ask team members to explain why they perceive a driver as high or low impact/certainty.
- Avoid Overconfidence: Be cautious of biases, such as assuming high certainty simply because a driver aligns with current trends.
- Consider Interdependence: Look at how drivers influence one another. Drivers with many interdependencies are often high-impact but may also introduce more uncertainty.
Step 2: Define the Two Axes of the Matrix
Place the two selected drivers on the X and Y axes of a blank matrix. For each driver, define the two ends of the spectrum (i.e., opposite conditions or extremes). Ensure the extremes are clear and specific, avoiding vague or overly broad terms.
For example, for Pace of AI Adoption, one end could be "Rapid, equitable adoption" and the other "Slow, uneven adoption."
Step 3: Populate the Matrix with Four Scenarios
The matrix's four quadrants represent the interplay of the two drivers' extremes. Each quadrant becomes a distinct scenario.
For example, if the two drivers being considered were 'Pace of Technological Adoption (Fast vs. Slow)' on the X axis and the 'Level of Social Cohesion (High vs. Low)' on the Y axis the example scenarios would be:
• Quadrant 1 (High Cohesion, Fast Tech Adoption): A thriving, inclusive digital society.
• Quadrant 2 (Low Cohesion, Fast Tech Adoption): A fragmented world of tech elites and marginalized communities.
• Quadrant 3 (High Cohesion, Slow Tech Adoption): A unified but technologically stagnant society.
• Quadrant 4 (Low Cohesion, Slow Tech Adoption): A divided, innovation-starved world.
Step 4: Build the Narrative
Once the 2x2 matrix is populated with four distinct quadrants, it's time to bring each scenario to life through a compelling and detailed narrative. This step aims to describe a plausible future world for each quadrant by exploring the interplay between the two key drivers of change and incorporating other drivers that may influence the scenario indirectly. These narratives help contextualize development challenges and opportunities, making them more actionable and relevant for planning.
To start, focus on one quadrant of the matrix at a time.
Begin by describing the world in this specific future based on the intersection of the two extremes of the selected drivers. For instance, if your drivers are Pace of Technological Adoption (fast vs. slow) and Level of Social Cohesion (high vs. low), you would explore how these two forces interact to shape a unique world in each quadrant.
In a scenario where technological adoption is rapid and social cohesion is high, the narrative might describe a thriving, inclusive digital society where technological advances are widely accessible and used to improve livelihoods. In contrast, a quadrant with slow technological adoption and low social cohesion might describe a fragmented world where innovation is stalled, and inequality is widespread.
As you develop the scenario, incorporate additional context from other drivers of change, especially the high-impact, high-certainty ones identified earlier in the foresight process.
Although these drivers were not prioritized for the matrix, they still play a role in shaping the future. For example, a high-tech world will still be influenced by climate-related migrations to urban areas, straining even the most advanced smart cities. Including such dynamics enriches the narrative, making it more multi-dimensional and reflective of systemic interdependencies.
To ensure the scenario is robust, reflect on its implications for different stakeholders. How might governments, businesses, and communities respond to this future? For example, in the low-tech, low-cohesion scenario, governments might struggle to maintain public trust, while communities could develop grassroots resilience strategies.
Once you have your scenario narrative, you can start exploring each of these scenarios to identify the development challenges that could plausibly emerge in the future.
Download an example workshop agenda for 2X2 scenarios
Click here to download a copy of the scenario narrative template
Click here to download an example of a filled in scenario narrative template
Click here to read more about the Archetype scenario technique