The Scenario Archetype Technique is a narrative-driven approach to scenario development, grounded in recurring patterns or “archetypes” that describe plausible future pathways. Unlike the 2x2 Matrix Method, which focuses on the interplay of two key uncertainties, the Archetype Technique provides a broader exploration of possible futures through four main archetypes. These archetypes—Baseline, Collapse, New Equilibrium, and Transformation—reflect distinct ways in which the future could unfold, offering a creative and systemic way to identify risks, opportunities, and development challenges. 

Understanding the Four Archetypes 

Click through below to learn more about each of these archetypes:

Baseline

The world continues to evolve along current trajectories, with steady improvements in technology, governance, and social systems. Challenges are addressed incrementally, and systems remain largely intact.

Rules of Thumb:
• Focus on incremental progress based on trends observed today.
• Assume no major disruptions or paradigm shifts occur.
• Reflect gradual improvements but also persistent challenges.

Example: Technological adoption spreads steadily, reducing inequalities, but systemic inequities remain unresolved.

Green descending zigzag arrow on a grid background.

Collapse

Systems break down due to crises, such as environmental, social, or economic disruptions. Progress stagnates, and societies struggle to maintain order and stability.

Rules of Thumb:
• Explore what happens when key systems (e.g., governance, infrastructure) fail.
• Consider the cascading effects of crises like climate change or resource shortages.
• Highlight vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms.

Example: Unmanaged climate migration overwhelms cities, leading to resource conflicts and social unrest.

New Equilibrium

Societies reorganize under new rules or constraints, often imposed by external forces (e.g., regulatory systems, cultural shifts). The focus is on sustainability, stability, and managing limited resources.

Rules of Thumb:
• Assume stricter rules and systems are put in place to address emerging challenges.
• Highlight trade-offs between progress and control.
• Consider how constraints impact freedom, innovation, and equity.

Example: Governments impose strict regulations on urban migration and resource use, fostering resilience but limiting personal freedoms.

Transformation

Radical changes occur, disrupting current systems and creating entirely new paradigms. Innovation and adaptation lead to breakthroughs in addressing complex challenges.

Rules of Thumb:
• Emphasize revolutionary changes and systemic shifts.
• Explore opportunities for renewal and the emergence of new norms.
• Highlight risks of inequality during transition phases.

Example: AI-driven governance and decentralized urban systems redefine cities as hubs of equity and innovation.


The four scenario archetypes—Baseline, Collapse, New Equilibrium, and Transformation—stem from decades of futures studies and scenario planning research.

These archetypes were popularized by systems theorists and futurists like Peter Schwartz and Jim Dator, who observed that certain patterns consistently emerge when exploring possible futures. They represent fundamental dynamics that societies and systems experience as they evolve, making them versatile tools for scenario building. 

 

Step 1: Build the Narrative

Refer to the drivers of change identified earlier in the foresight process. These drivers will help shape the narrative and dynamics of each archetype. Choose the ones that are the most relevant to the development context. Try to focus your attention on a handful of 6-8 drivers to ensure that the scenarios don’t get too complex for the team to create.

Tips for selecting key drivers:

 

Translate the drivers into the four archetypes. 

How would these drivers manifest if we were to apply the Rules of Thumb mentioned in the previous pages, in each of these archetypes?

For example, if your chosen drivers were ‘Rural-Urban Migration’, ‘Technological Adoption’, ‘Climate Resilience’ & ‘New Governance Models’, then the highlights of the scenarios could be:

Baseline: High Pace of Technological Adoption allows for steady expansion of renewable energy systems and efficient urban infrastructure. Effective Governance Models ensure resources are distributed equitably, while moderate Climate Resilience supports incremental progress.

Collapse: Unmanaged Urban Migration Patterns overwhelm cities, leading to resource shortages and infrastructure strain. Low Climate Resilience exacerbates crises, and governance systems fail to respond effectively.

New Equilibrium: Governance Models impose stricter regulations to control urban migration and manage limited resources. Moderate technological adoption supports sustainability goals, but constraints limit individual freedoms and innovation.

Transformation: Decentralized, Community-Led Governance Models empower local communities to implement innovative solutions for urban resilience. High Climate Resilience and Rapid Technological Adoption create sustainable, equitable urban systems. 

Scenario Development Template 

Craft a rich, plausible narrative for each archetype that describes how the future unfolds. 

Download the Scenario Template 

 

Download an example workshop agenda for the Archetype technique

 

Validate the scenarios

As a final step, validate the scenarios by revisiting the signals of change and drivers that informed the process. Check whether the narrative aligns with evidence from your horizon scanning and ensure that it is plausible and distinct from the others. Encourage feedback from team members or stakeholders to refine and strengthen the narrative.
 

By creating these rich, detailed scenarios, teams gain a deeper understanding of how future challenges and opportunities might unfold. These narratives form the foundation for identifying development challenges in the next step, ensuring that the CPD reflects both current priorities and emerging dynamics in the development landscape.

 

Next explore the scenarios to identify development challenges