For teams implementing the process:

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Identifying Development Challenges

One of the central tenets of foresight is that the future is not fixed; it is shaped by a range of forces, many of which are uncertain or unpredictable.

Through foresight techniques, we try to structurally imagine the possible, anticipate the unpredictable, and reduce the element of surprise.

The process of identifying development challenges is a critical step in the foresight journey. It builds on insights from identifying drivers of change and imagining possible futures, enabling teams to articulate the key challenges that will shape the development landscape over time. This step, while intellectually demanding, is one of the most important phases of the process because it provides the foundation for actionable strategies, policies, and programming. It requires teams to think beyond current issues, leveraging a forward-looking perspective to anticipate and prepare for challenges that might emerge in the years to come.

Traditional planning processes often focus on current challenges or use forecasting based on historical data to predict future needs. While valuable, these methods are inherently limited—they tend to assume that the future will unfold as an extension of the past. This can lead to a narrow understanding of the challenges ahead, leaving teams unprepared for disruptions or emerging trends.

By engaging in this process, teams develop a future-resilient mindset, which is crucial for navigating uncertainty and ensuring that development strategies remain relevant and impactful in a changing world.

Why should you think about multiple futures when identifying future development challenges?

Identifying Development Challenges

Once the prioritized drivers of change have been identified, the next step is to use them to uncover potential development challenges that may emerge in the future. Depending on the team’s resources, expertise, and comfort level with creative thinking, this can be approached in two ways.

Option 1: Analytical Approach— Driver Outcomes & Futures Wheel

This approach is suitable for teams with limited time, resources, or expertise in scenario building. It directly leverages the prioritized drivers to explore their potential implications and identify challenges.

Choose Option 1 if:

You have limited time, prefer a structured and direct approach, and need actionable outputs without delving into complex storytelling.

Pros of this option:

1. Time-Efficient: This approach requires fewer steps and can be completed in a shorter timeframe, making it ideal for teams withlimited resources or tight deadlines.
2. Accessible for All Team Members: It does not require story-telling or qualitative creativity, making it more comfortable for participants who are less experienced with foresight.

The trade-offs you will make in this approach:

1. Lack of Systems Perspective: This approach may miss the complex dynamic relationships between drivers, which often emerge in narrative-based methods.
2. Less Engaging for Stakeholders: The lack of storytelling or creative narratives may make it harder to engage stakeholders who prefer visual or imaginative outputs.

Option 2: Creative Approach— Scenario Development

This approach focuses on developing scenarios to explore how drivers of change might shape the future. It allows teams to create narratives that can inform strategic planning with depth and imagination.

Choose Option 2 if:

You value the ability to engage stakeholders through rich narratives and have the time & resources to examine the interplay of drivers and uncertainties fully. 

Pros of this option:

1. Systems Thinking Lens: By developing scenarios, this approach brings out the complex interdependencies between drivers, providing a holistic view of possible futures.
2. Rich Insights: Storytelling and scenario development often uncover hidden risks and opportunities that may not emerge through analytical methods. 

The trade-offs you will make in this approach:

1. Requires Creativity and Facilitation. Expertise: This approach may be challenging for teams unfamiliar with qualitative methods or lacking facilitation experience.
2. Potential Stakeholder Resistance: Highly technical stakeholders may find storytelling less credible or rigorous compared to more data-driven methods. 

Identifying Development Challenges: The two options at-a-glance

Option 1: Analytical Approach— Driver Outcomes & Futures Wheel

Option 2: Creative Approach— Scenario Development

Identifying Development Challenges: Option 1

If you’ve decided on Option 1, you will follow a three-step process that will lead to a ‘long list’ of development challenges that could potentially emerge in the future based on the signals of change you’ve collected in your horizon scanning and the drivers of change you’ve developed from them.

Identify & Prioritize Driver Outcomes

The first step is to explore the different ways a driver might manifest in the future and prioritize those that are most critical for further analysis. Drivers of change are dynamic forces, and their evolution can lead to a variety of ou comes depending on contextual factors, societal choices, and external disruptions. This step helps the team artic late these possible outcomes and focus on the ones with the most potential impact.

During this step, it is crucial to avoid self-censorship and think freely, even about outcomes that might seem likely or unconventional. This is a common pitfall in foresight exercises—teams may focus only on “realistic” scenarios or those that align with current trends, inadvertently reinforcing internal blind spots. Encourage the team to consider “wild card” possibilities or surprising outcomes, as these can reveal biases and help uncover hidden vulnerabilities or opportunities.

For example:

• A team focused on urban migration might overlook the possibility of reverse migration to rural areas due to unexpected breakthroughs in rural development technologies or policies.
• A driver like “emerging technologies in governance” could yield an unexpected outcome , such as AI-driven decentralization, which could completely reshape political systems. 

Thinking beyond what seems immediately likely ensures a broader exploration of possibilities and prepares the team for a wider range of futures. This openness can help mitigate bias and bring previously overlooked but important dynamics into the conversation.

Thinking Through Driver Outcomes

To explore driver outcomes, consider asking the following questions for every driver:

• What happens if this driver evolves exactly as we expect?
• What happens if this driver evolves in the opposite way than we expect?
• What other directions might this driver take?

 

 

This step may be the most challenging for many team members. However, avoiding self-censorship is critical to achieving the true value of this exercise.

In the next step, each of these outcomes will be evaluated to determine whether it truly represents a risk to development and whether any of them should be dismissed.

Prioritizing & Categorizing High-impact Driver Outcomes Select High-Impact Outcomes

In this step, outcomes of the prioritized drivers are assessed based on impact and certainty to determine their relevance for further exploration. Both high-impact, high-uncertainty outcomes and high-impact, high-certainty outcomes must be prioritized because they contribute to different dimensions of planning:

High-Impact, High-Uncertainty Outcomes: These outcomes are less predictable but could cause significant disruption or transformation. Exploring their implications helps identify potential challenges that may arise under different future conditions.

High-Impact, High-Certainty Outcomes: These outcomes are predictable and likely to occur. Understanding these helps frame specific and relatively certain development challenges that UNDP must prepare to address proactively.

How to Prioritize Driver Outcomes: Impact X Uncertainty

To prioritize effectively, teams must assess outcomes based on Impact and Certainty. Each parameter has its own nuances, and understanding these will help teams navigate this step with clarity and purpose.

Defining Impact

‘Impact’ refers to the significance or magnitude of an outcome’s effect on the development landscape. An outcome with high impact is one that could create widespread, long-lasting change—whether positive or negative.

To determine the impact of a driver outcome, teams should assess its potential to:

• Affect large populations or critical systems.
• Trigger cascading changes in other areas (e.g., political, economic, social, environmental, or technological systems).
• Challenge or reinforce existing development priorities.
• Introduce new opportunities or vulnerabilities that may not be part of current strategies.

Prompting Questions to Determine Impact:

• Who or what will be affected by this outcome? For example, If rural-to-urban migration accelerates, will it primarily impact urban infrastructure, public services, or marginalized communities?
• How widespread could the effects of this outcome be? Will it affect only urban centers, or will it ripple out to rural areas through reduced labor supply or changes in agricultural productivity?
• Will the outcome create systemic change? For example, Could rapid urbanization lead to long-term socioeconomic shifts, such as smaller families, a larger burden on income earners or women, etc.?

Prioritizing & Categorizing Driver Outcomes

Understanding Certainty

Certainty is not about predicting the likelihood of an outcome occurring—as you know already, no one has a crystal ball. Instead, certainty is about the degree of agreement among team members regarding the plausibility of the outcome. If there is significant disagreement, this indicates high uncertainty.

Prompting Questions for Certainty

• Is there consensus among the team about this outcome being plausible?
• What data or evidence supports this outcome? Are there trends or signals pointing to this outcome, or is it largely speculative?
• What factors contribute to uncertainty about this outcome?
• What assumptions underlie this outcome, and are they contested.

Outcomes with high certainty are those that:

• Align closely with current data or trends.
• Are seen as plausible and uncontroversial by most team members.
• Have been observed in similar contexts or are well-documented in research.

In contrast, outcomes with low certainty:

• Are characterized by disagreement or debate among team members.
• Reflect situations where data is ambiguous or trends are highly volatile.
• Are influenced by complex or poorly understood dynamics.

By carefully assessing impact and certainty, teams can prioritize outcomes to balance foresight and practicality, ensuring that critical challenges are neither overlooked nor underestimated. This framework helps ensure that planning efforts are comprehensive, proactive, and adaptive to future uncertainties.

Prioritizing & Categorizing Driver Outcomes

Once impact and certainty are assessed for each outcome, teams can place outcomes into the following categories to guide prioritization.

 

The two main categories of interest that we will take to the next step:

High—impact, High—Certainty Outcomes represent the outcomes that we expect in the future and that we need to plan for. The development challenges that arise out of these outcomes would be the ones we we would have likely identified with or without foresight exercises and we would have plenty of data to support them.

High-Uncertainty Outcomes These are the outcomes that would have emerged due to the analysis we have done in the previous steps. These outcomes may not have strong data to support it but they have a few signals of change that offer qualitative evidence regarding the possibility of occuring. The developmental challenges that emerge from these outcomes, when incorporated into the planning process, will enable teams to be better prepared for ‘surprises’.

Identify Implications

Introduction to the Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a foresight tool designed to map the cascading implications of a specific event, trend, or driver outcome. Developed by Jerome Glenn, it helps teams visualize the ripple effects that might emerge from a driver outcome, revealing both direct and indirect consequences.

By organizing these implications into concentric layers, the Futures Wheel provides a structured way to think about the broader impacts of change.

In this step, the Futures Wheel will be applied to the prioritized driver outcomes identified earlier.

Each prioritized outcome will serve as the central focus, and the team will collaboratively explore its implications. The goal is to generate a comprehensive understanding of how the outcome might shape the development context, ultimately helping the team identify potential development challenges.

The Futures Wheel is an essential step in foresight, helping teams systematically explore the
broader impacts of prioritized outcomes.

Mapping implications visually and collaboratively ensures that all dimensions of a driver outcome are considered, leading to richer insights and more robust development challenge identification. This structured process not only uncovers risks but also highlights opportunities, enabling teams to build proactive and future-ready strategies.

Identify Implications

Step 1

Place the Driver Outcome in the Center: Start by writing the prioritized driver outcome in the center of the Futures Wheel. For example, let’s say you’ve chosen to start with the high impact, high certainty outcome: “In ten years, the population in urban areas will double”. Place this in the centre of the Futures wheel.

Step 2

Ask participants to brainstorm the direct consequences of the driver outcome. These are the first order implications, which result immediately from the driver.

Prompting Questions:

• What happens directly as a result of this outcome?
• Who or what is affected immediately?

Step 3

From the first-order implications, brainstorm their second-order impacts, or what happens as a result of the first layer of change.

Prompting Questions:

What happens because of this first-order implication?

Step 4

If possible, extend the exercise to third order implications, which explore more systemic or long-term effects.

Prompting Question: What are the ripple effects of second-order implications?

Example of a Futures wheel

Below is a slightly edited version of a Futures Wheel created in a ‘Strategy Check-In’ session conducted by the UNDP Strategy and Futures Team for a high-impact, low-certainty possibility.

 

 

 

 

 

Identify Implications

Tips and Tricks for Using the Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a versatile tool enabling teams to systematically map the cascading implications of prioritized driver outcomes. Here are some important tips and tricks to maximize its effectiveness:

Assume Each Implication Happens and Build Forward

Begin by assuming the first implication is true, then ask: “What happens as a direct result of this?” This mindset ensures the exercise builds logically from one layer of implications to the next. For example, the Driver Outcome: Urban migration accelerates would lead to > 1st Order

Implication: Overcrowding in housing, which would lead to > 2nd Order Implication: Growth of informal settlements, which, in turn, would lead to > 3rd Order Implication: Increased inequality and health crises.

Think of both Positive and Negative Implications

Aim to identify at least one positive implication and one negative implication for every layer. This balance prevents participants from focusing solely on risks or benefits and ensures a nuanced view.

For example, a positive third-order implication could be that informal settlements might create vibrant, self-sufficient communities with innovative micro-economies. A negative Implication could be that these settlements might exacerbate social exclusion and strain public resources.

Be Specific and Concrete

Use precise language when articulating implications. Avoid vague terms like “affects”, “changes”, or “impacts.” Abstract or general implications will trigger even more abstract & general implications, resulting in a fuzzy, indistinct final product lacking clear insights. Instead, specify what changes, how, and for whom.

For example, a vague implication would be, "Overcrowding affects education”. Instead, a better, more specific implication would be “Overcrowding in informal settlements reduces school attendance rates due to long travel distances and lack of resources”.

Repetition and Contradictions are Okay

Repetition: If the same implication arises from multiple outcomes, this could indicate a systemic challenge that warrants extra attention. This is good and it means you might ne narrowing in on a development challenge. 

Contradictions: Conflicting implications can coexist, highlighting areas of uncertainty or potential tipping points.

For example, you might have one first-order implication as “Urban migration reduces rural labor
supply,” while another first-order implication could be “Rural innovation attracts reverse migration.”
Both implications could be useful to consider when looking at the development challenges and
opportunities of the future.

Cluster implications and Define Development challenges

After completing the Futures Wheel, document all implications. Using a participatory process, group similar or related implications into clusters or thematic groups. When clustering, it is usually a good idea to work with second—or third-order implications.

Identify patterns, overlaps, or recurring themes to uncover potential development challenges.

For the Rural-Urban Migration example, some clusters that could emerge are Urban Resilience: Challenges related to infrastructure, service delivery, and environmental sustainability or Social Equity: Risks of exclusion, marginalization, and inequality.

Draft Development Challenges

Use the clustered implications to articulate development challenges in clear, actionable terms. Translate the clusters into actionable development challenges. When framing a development challenge, it is important to provide clarity on:

• What the challenge is (concise name)
• Why it matters (connection to drivers and outcomes)
• How it affects the development context (implications)

A Working-Template to Frame and Name the Development Challenge

Development Challenge Framing Example

 

Key Takeaways

By using the Futures Wheel, teams can:

1. Systematically map the ripple effects of driver outcomes.
2. Uncover systemic risks and opportunities that may not be immediately apparent.
3. Generate actionable insights that can be synthesized into development challenges.

This structured approach ensures a thorough exploration of each driver outcome, creating a robust foundation for identifying challenges and informing strategic planning.

Example of a Development Challenge from the Futures wheel

In the process of ‘implication synthesis’, the team might see that food insecurity repeatedly emerges as a second- and third-order implication.

It’s interesting to note that irrespective of whether the driver outcome (an all out conflict, in this case) manifests in
the future, this exercise could highlight the poor state of agricultural productivity or the vulnerability of trade routes in the region.

Identifying Development Challenges Workshops

We suggest going through these steps with your team in two workshops, with a break between them to give participants time to reflect on the drivers and their possible outcomes. Below is a detailed outline of the possible workflows for each workshop.

Pre-Read for Participants

Prepare a brief, accessible document or presentation covering:

• What are drivers of change?
• How were these drivers identified?
• What is the purpose of the workshop?

Share the drivers in advance and encourage participants to consider: What outcomes might result if this driver develops in different ways?

Clarify the Objectives

1. Workshop 1: Focus on brainstorming the outcomes of prioritized drivers and classifying them as high-impact, high-certainty, or high-impact, low-certainty outcomes.
2. Workshop 2: Explore the implications of prioritized outcomes using the Futures Wheel.

Set Up Tools

Digital tools (if virtual): Miro, MURAL, or Jamboard for real-time collaboration. Physical setup (if in-person): Provide sticky notes, flip charts, and markers

Between Workshop 1 & Workshop 2 Preparation

• Synthesize Driver Outcomes. Review the workshop's output and combine any 'related' outcomes or remove overlaps, preparing the different outcomes for the next workshop.
• Synthesize Driver Prioritization Rationale. The discussion generated during the prioritization exercise is critical to capture as it will serve as an essential component of the CPD's content. The potential impact of the different driver outcomes could represent the rationale behind why UNDP chose to tackle one specific development challenge rather than another.
• Share the Synthesized Output. For the next workshop, it is important for participants to acclimatize themselves to the different outcomes discussed in Workshop 1, especially if certain outcomes were more contentious.

Set Up Tools for Workshop 2 Digital tools (if virtual): Miro, MURAL, or Jamboard for real-time collaboration
Physical setup (if in-person): Provide sticky notes, flip charts, and markers.

Example Workshop 1 Agenda

Please look at the example agenda we have provided below and modify it for your own purposes.

Welcome and Introductions (20 min)

Explain the objectives and outline the agenda.

Context Setting (20 min)

Present the drivers of change and explain how they were developed. Clarify what the participants will be doing. Also, encourage participants to avoid self-censoring and explore seemingly 'outlandish' driver outcomes.

Breakout Sessions: Brainstorm Driver Outcomes Part 1 (40 min)

In small groups, identify the possible outcomes for each driver. Each group could work on 2-4 drivers.

Break (10 min)

Breakout Sessions: Brainstorm Driver Outcomes Part 2 (40 min)

Rotate groups to review and add to the outcomes brainstormed by others.

Prioritize Outcomes (60-75 min)

In the plenary session, rank driver outcomes on Impact and Certainty.

Next Steps & Closing (15 min)

Explain next steps and prime participants to consider implications for different driver outcomes.

• Make sure to offer plenty of examples of what a 'driver outcome' looks like

• Have the facilitator play the role of the challenger and push participants to think about extreme outcomes based on the relevant signals of change

• Remember to offer clear guidance on assessing Impact and Certainty - you might have to offer a reminder at regular intervals in the exercise.

Example Workshop 2 Agenda

If possible, allow for at least 3–5 days between Workshop 1 and Workshop 2. This gives participants time to process the outcomes and reflect on potential implications.

Welcome and Recap (20 min)

Recap Workshop 1 and review the prioritized driver outcomes.

Introduction to the Futures Wheel (20 min)

Explain the Futures Wheel, how to use it.

Breakout Sessions: Futures Wheel Part 1 (60-75 min)

Divide participants into small groups and assign 5-6 driver outcomes to each group.

Break (10 min)

Breakout Sessions: Futures Wheel Part 2 (60 min)

Rotate groups to review and add to the implications brainstormed by others.

Clustering Implications into Development Challenges (60 min)

In the plenary session, cluster the second and third-order implications into themes that coalesce into specific development challenges.

Next Steps & Closing (15 min)

Clarify that the outcome of this workshop will be shared for additional input for finalization.

If you opted for Option 1, you can now move to the next chapter…

Outputs from this process offer a comprehensive view of the complexities and opportunities of the future. These challenges reflect risks and invitations to innovate, collaborate, and strategically position UNDP’s work in an uncertain world.

However, not all challenges can be addressed at once. The next step in this process is to prioritize these challenges, ensuring that the focus is aligned with UNDP’s mandate, comparative advantage, and the strategic needs of the country context.

With a long list of development challenges now identified, the focus shifts to determining which ones UNDP should prioritize.

In Chapter 4, we’ll explore tools, frameworks, and methodologies to systematically prioritize these challenges, ensuring that UNDP’s contributions are both impactful and future-ready.

Identifying Development Challenges: Option 2

In this approach, the team develops detailed scenarios to explore how drivers might interact and shape the future. This method is ideal for teams with more time, resources, or experience in foresight exercises. Two commonly used methods for scenario development are the 2x2 Matrix and the Scenario Archetypes approach.

What are scenarios and why are they important?

Scenarios are structured narratives about the future, designed to explore a range of possible outcomes by projecting key drivers of change and uncertainties into alternative futures. They are not forecasts or predictions; rather, they are tools to help teams learn from the future to take informed actions in the present.

Why Scenarios Matter

Scenarios challenge traditional ways of thinking and force teams to grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and interconnected systems. They are particularly valuable in identifying development challenges that might not be visible through current data or linear analysis. By encouraging creative exploration, scenarios expand strategic thinking and foster innovation.

According to Pierre Wack, one of the pioneers of scenario planning, forecasts are dangerous because they tend to fail when unexpected changes or major shifts occur. Scenarios mitigate this risk by presenting multiple plausible futures, helping teams prepare for a range of possibilities rather than relying on singular predictions.

Scenarios enable teams to explore development challenges in ways that analytical approaches might not:

Challenge Assumptions: Scenarios disrupt the "we've always done it this way" mindset, allowing teams to challenge their assumptions and broaden their perspective.

Explore Complex Interactions: Scenarios reveal how drivers interact with each other, often creating new challenges or amplifying existing ones.

Surface Unconventional Challenges: By exploring futures that deviate significantly from today's trajectory, scenarios bring to light unconventional development challenges that might otherwise be overlooked.

Connecting Scenarios to UNDP's Work

In the context of UNDP, scenarios are critical for anticipating future risks and opportunities and designing development programs that are resilient, innovative, and forward-looking. By using scenarios, teams can:

• Align their work with plausible future conditions, making strategies more anticipatory.
• Prepare for high-impact uncertainties by addressing challenges that might arise in multiple scenarios.
• Inspire new ways of working by embedding creativity and systems thinking into development planning.

Scenarios are more than just stories—they are tools for surfacing hidden challenges, imagining transformative possibilities, and building resilience to future uncertainties.

If you've chosen Option 2, you'll embark on a creative approach to identify development challenges by exploring scenarios. This method enables teams to consider how different drivers interact across plausible futures, surfacing challenges that may not be immediately apparent in today's context.

The process is structured into two steps, each designed to guide you from building scenarios to defining actionable development challenges.

Option 2: Developing Scenarios

While there are many methodologies for building scenarios, this guide focuses on two widely used and practical techniques: the 2x2 Matrix Method and the Archetype Technique. Each approach has its strengths and is suited for different team needs and contexts. Below, we'll provide an overview of each method, including when to use them.

The 2x2 Matrix Method

What It Is

The 2x2 Matrix Method is a structured scenario-building approach that explores future possibilities based on two critical uncertainties. By placing these uncertainties along two axes, the method creates four quadrants, each representing a distinct and plausible future.

When to Use the 2x2 Matrix

• When the team has limited time and needs a relatively quick way to generate scenarios.
• When two key uncertainties are particularly important in shaping the development landscape.
• When stakeholder input is needed, as the visual grid format is highly intuitive and easy to engage with.

The Archetype Technique

What It Is

The Archetype Technique is a narrative-driven approach that builds scenarios using predefined archetypes to explore a wide range of future possibilities. These archetypes are recurring patterns that describe how the future could unfold.

When to Use the Archetype Technique

• When the team has more time and wants to explore systemic challenges across a broader range of possibilities.
• When creativity and narrative depth are priorities, enabling a rich exploration of complex, dynamic systems.
• When the goal is to explore extreme or unconventional futures, beyond current trends.

By selecting the approach that best suits their objectives, teams can build scenarios that not only reflect plausible futures but also uncover innovative development challenges across these contexts. In the following sections, we'll provide step-by-step guidance for applying both methodologies effectively.

Developing Scenarios: the 2X2 Matrix method

The 2x2 Matrix Technique is a structured and efficient way to develop scenarios by prioritizing key drivers of change and exploring their interaction across different conditions. Below is a detailed, step-by-step guide to help teams create scenarios using this technique.

Step 1: Start with Prioritizing the Drivers of Change

Review the list of drivers of change identified in the previous sections. These drivers represent forces shaping the future development landscape. As a team, you will need to prioritize two drivers of change to focus on.

Ask the following questions to narrow down the list:

• Which drivers have the most significant potential impact on the development context?
• Which drivers are characterized by high uncertainty?
• Which drivers are interdependent or have cascading effects on other forces?

Prioritize two key drivers that are both high impact and high uncertainty and independent of each other (i.e., they don't overlap in scope or effects).

Defining Impact

Impact refers to a driver's potential significance in shaping the future development landscape. A high-impact driver is one that could create substantial changes across sectors, systems, or populations, whether through risks, opportunities, or cascading effects.

1. Consider Breadth and Depth:

• Breadth: How many people, sectors, or regions will this driver affect?
• Depth: How profound or transformative will the changes caused by this driver be?

2. Evaluate Systemic Effects: Does this driver influence other drivers or systems? High-impact drivers often have cascading effects.

For example: Climate change affects migration, agriculture, health, and urban development, making it a high-impact driver.

Defining Certainty

Certainty refers to the level of agreement about whether and how a driver will manifest in the future. It's not about predicting likelihood with precision (no one has a crystal ball), but rather about assessing the degree of consensus or ambiguity surrounding the driver.

1. Gauge Team Agreement: If most team members agree that the driver will evolve in a specific, predictable way, then it's likely that the driver is highly certain. If however, significant disagreement exists about how or whether the driver will evolve- it will be a highly uncertain driver.
2. Examine Data and Trends: Drivers with strong, observable trends or robust evidence are typically more certain, while drivers influenced by unpredictable dynamics (e.g., political shifts) are less certain.

Tips for Assessing Impact and Certainty of Drivers

1. Use a Scoring System: Rate each driver on a scale of 1 to 5 for impact and certainty, using team discussions to reach a consensus.
2. Facilitate Team Discussions: Use structured conversations to surface assumptions, disagreements, and different perspectives. Ask team members to explain why they perceive a driver as high or low impact/certainty.
3. Avoid Overconfidence: Be cautious of biases, such as assuming high certainty simply because a driver aligns with current trends.
4. Consider Interdependence: Look at how drivers influence one another. Drivers with many interdependencies are often high-impact but may also introduce more uncertainty.

Impact Assessment Scale

How would you rate the potential impact of this driver on the development context?

1 → 2 → 3 → 4 → 5

This driver is not impactful ←→ This driver is very impactful

Certainty Assessment Scale

How would you rate the certainty of this driver?

1 → 2 → 3 → 4 → 5

This driver is likely to evolve in a predictable way ←→ This driver is very unpredictable

Step 2: Define the Two Axes of the Matrix

Place the two selected drivers on the X and Y axes of a blank matrix. For each driver, define the two ends of the spectrum (i.e., opposite conditions or extremes). Ensure the extremes are clear and specific, avoiding vague or overly broad terms.

For example, for Pace of AI Adoption, one end could be "Rapid, equitable adoption" and the other "Slow, uneven adoption."

Step 3: Populate the Matrix with Four Scenarios

The matrix's four quadrants represent the interplay of the two drivers' extremes. Each quadrant becomes a distinct scenario.

For example, if the two drivers being considered were 'Pace of Technological Adoption (Fast vs. Slow)' on the X axis and the 'Level of Social Cohesion (High vs. Low)' on the Y axis the example scenarios would be:

• Quadrant 1 (High Cohesion, Fast Tech Adoption): A thriving, inclusive digital society.

• Quadrant 2 (Low Cohesion, Fast Tech Adoption): A fragmented world of tech elites and marginalized communities.

• Quadrant 3 (High Cohesion, Slow Tech Adoption): A unified but technologically stagnant society.

• Quadrant 4 (Low Cohesion, Slow Tech Adoption): A divided, innovation-starved world.

Step 4: Build the Narrative

Once the 2x2 matrix is populated with four distinct quadrants, it's time to bring each scenario to life through a compelling and detailed narrative. This step aims to describe a plausible future world for each quadrant by exploring the interplay between the two key drivers of change and incorporating other drivers that may influence the scenario indirectly. These narratives help contextualize development challenges and opportunities, making them more actionable and relevant for planning.

To start, focus on one quadrant of the matrix at a time.

Begin by describing the world in this specific future based on the intersection of the two extremes of the selected drivers. For instance, if your drivers are Pace of Technological Adoption (fast vs. slow) and Level of Social Cohesion (high vs. low), you would explore how these two forces interact to shape a unique world in each quadrant.

In a scenario where technological adoption is rapid and social cohesion is high, the narrative might describe a thriving, inclusive digital society where technological advances are widely accessible and used to improve livelihoods. In contrast, a quadrant with slow technological adoption and low social cohesion might describe a fragmented world where innovation is stalled, and inequality is widespread.

As you develop the scenario, incorporate additional context from other drivers of change, especially the high-impact, high-certainty ones identified earlier in the foresight process.

Although these drivers were not prioritized for the matrix, they still play a role in shaping the future. For example, a high-tech world will still be influenced by climate-related migrations to urban areas, straining even the most advanced smart cities. Including such dynamics enriches the narrative, making it more multi-dimensional and reflective of systemic interdependencies.

To ensure the scenario is robust, reflect on its implications for different stakeholders. How might governments, businesses, and communities respond to this future? For example, in the low-tech, low-cohesion scenario, governments might struggle to maintain public trust, while communities could develop grassroots resilience strategies.

Conclusion

The outputs from this process offer a comprehensive view of the complexities and opportunities of the future.

These challenges are not just reflections of risks but also invitations to innovate, collaborate, and strategically position UNDP’s work in an uncertain world. However, not all challenges can be addressed at once. The next step in this process is to prioritize these challenges, ensuring that the focus is aligned with UNDP’s mandate, comparative
advantage, and the strategic needs of the country context. Prioritization is critical to translating foresight insights into impactful action. With a long list of development challenges now identified, the focus shifts to determining which ones UNDP should prioritize.

This step involves evaluating the challenges based on strategic criteria, such as alignment with UNDP’s mandate, national development goals, and the potential impact on vulnerable populations. Through this process, the most critical and actionable challenges will emerge, guiding the program priorities and partnerships in the CPD.
In the next section, we’ll explore tools, frameworks, and methodologies to systematically prioritize these challenges, ensuring that UNDP’s contributions are both impactful and future-ready.