Locations
In this approach, the team develops detailed scenarios to explore how drivers might interact and shape the future. This method is ideal for teams with more time, resources, or experience in foresight exercises. Two commonly used methods for scenario development are the 2x2 Matrix and the Scenario Archetypes approach.
What are scenarios and why are they important?
Scenarios are structured narratives about the future, designed to explore a range of possible outcomes by projecting key drivers of change and uncertainties into alternative futures. They are not forecasts or predictions; rather, they are tools to help teams learn from the future to take informed actions in the present.
Why Scenarios Matter
Scenarios challenge traditional ways of thinking and force teams to grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and interconnected systems. They are particularly valuable in identifying development challenges that might not be visible through current data or linear analysis. By encouraging creative exploration, scenarios expand strategic thinking and foster innovation.
According to Pierre Wack, one of the pioneers of scenario planning, forecasts are dangerous because they tend to fail when unexpected changes or major shifts occur.
Scenarios mitigate this risk by presenting multiple plausible futures, helping teams prepare for a range of possibilities rather than relying on singular predictions.
Scenarios enable teams to explore development challenges in ways that analytical approaches might not:
Connecting Scenarios to UNDP's Work
In the context of UNDP, scenarios are critical for anticipating future risks and opportunities and designing development programs that are resilient, innovative, and forward-looking. By using scenarios, teams can:
- Align their work with plausible future conditions, making strategies more anticipatory.
- Prepare for high-impact uncertainties by addressing challenges that might arise in multiple scenarios.
- Inspire new ways of working by embedding creativity and systems thinking into development planning.
Scenarios are more than just stories—they are tools for surfacing hidden challenges, imagining transformative possibilities, and building resilience to future uncertainties.
The Creative Approach Overview
If you've chosen Option 2, you'll embark on a creative approach to identify development challenges by exploring scenarios. This method enables teams to consider how different drivers interact across plausible futures, surfacing challenges that may not be immediately apparent in today's context.
The process is structured into two steps, each designed to guide you from building scenarios to defining actionable development challenges.
Option 2: Developing Scenarios
While there are many methodologies for building scenarios, this guide focuses on two widely used and practical techniques: the 2x2 Matrix Method and the Archetype Technique. Each approach has its strengths and is suited for different team needs and contexts. Below, we'll provide an overview of each method, including when to use them.
What It Is
The 2x2 Matrix Method is a structured scenario-building approach that explores future possibilities based on two critical uncertainties. By placing these uncertainties along two axes, the method creates four quadrants, each representing a distinct and plausible future.
When to Use the 2x2 Matrix
• When the team has limited time and needs a relatively quick way to generate scenarios.
• When two key uncertainties are particularly important in shaping the development landscape.
• When stakeholder input is needed, as the visual grid format is highly intuitive and easy to engage with.
What It Is
The Archetype Technique is a narrative-driven approach that builds scenarios using predefined archetypes to explore a wide range of future possibilities. These archetypes are recurring patterns that describe how the future could unfold.
When to Use the Archetype Technique
• When the team has more time and wants to explore systemic challenges across a broader range of possibilities.
• When creativity and narrative depth are priorities, enabling a rich exploration of complex, dynamic systems.
• When the goal is to explore extreme or unconventional futures, beyond current trends.
By selecting the approach that best suits their objectives, teams can build scenarios that not only reflect plausible futures but also uncover innovative development challenges across these contexts.
Read more about the 2X2 Matrix Method
Read more about the Archetype Technique