For years, minigrids sat on the sidelines of Africa’s energy conversation, seen as too small, too fragmented and too complex to scale. But at this year’s Africa Energy Forum, that story felt different.

The Minigrid Market Fundamentals workshop captured a clear change in tone. Where there was once hesitation, now there’s momentum. Doubts felt quieter, replaced by grounded, practical focus. Developers, policymakers and financiers weren’t debating whether minigrids could scale, they were working through how.

That shift stood out in a forum long defined by large-scale infrastructure deals, independent power producers, and utility-led ambitions. The message was clear. Grid extension alone won’t close Africa’s energy access gap. Distributed solutions are moving firmly into the mainstream as essential infrastructure: flexible, scalable, and central to meeting real-world energy needs.

From conventional to experimental, these are the key lessons that surfaced during the three-hour discussion:

Rethinking complexity—high-touch does not mean inefficient

Minigrids are not built like utility-scale projects. They require site-specific engagement, tailored design, and ongoing operational support. But what is often dismissed as “complexity” is, in fact, a feature, not a flaw. These systems succeed because they are high-touch: embedded in local realities, grounded in trust, and responsive to real-time needs. That’s not inefficiency; it’s what makes them work.

Applying utility-scale logic to distributed systems misses the point. Minigrids aren’t meant to be uniform, they’re meant to be modular, adaptable, and replicable. Efficiency lies in their ability to scale through variation, not sameness. 

Nowhere is this more evident than in Somalia. Tamarso, a company built on deep community engagement, has developed and sustained seven minigrids in one of Africa’s most complex operating environments. Their success stems from proximity, cultural fluency and trust, qualities that uncover possibility where others see only risk. In a place many consider unbankable, they’ve shown that creativity, not simplification, drives results.

The tools to support this model are catching up. Remote monitoring, mobile payments, and predictive maintenance are making even the most remote systems easier to manage. Centralized platforms now support distributed teams, proving that localized delivery and systematized scale can go hand in hand.

The sector doesn’t need to be less complex. It needs systems designed to work with complexity. 

Let’s be clear: This is bigger than minigrids

Focusing too narrowly on single technologies limits the sector’s potential. Minigrids aren’t standalone, they’re part of a broader, future-ready energy architecture that integrates solar home systems, mobile storage, digital platforms and other emerging technologies to meet people where they are, and adapt as their needs evolve.

We are moving toward a model where minigrids form the backbone of distributed renewable energy (DRE); flexible, integrated systems spanning off-grid, near-grid and grid-connected solutions. The opportunity isn’t in choosing one path, but in designing systems that adapt to households, communities, and markets.

Reframing scale: System impact, not just megawatts

A common critique of minigrids is that they’re too small, too fragmented. But scale, especially in the context of Mission 300, isn’t about megawatts. It’s about people connected, communities reached, and systems activated. On that front, minigrids are one of the few tools delivering fast, targeted results in the hardest-to-reach places. In fact, since 2020, and for the first time on the continent, minigrids and off-grid solar have connected more people to electricity than national grids.

If we’re serious about connecting 300 million people to electricity by 2030, we can’t afford to wait for grid expansion alone. It’s too slow, too costly, and often stuck in political inertia. Minigrids are scalable infrastructure, but they scale differently. Not through a single massive project, but through hundreds of modular, replicable systems that can be deployed simultaneously across countries.

Scaling minigrids is about better delivery. That means placing experts inside ministries and minigrid companies, creating shared data platforms, supporting early-stage project preparation, and helping governments and developers navigate real-world implementation, not just designing it on paper. But real progress requires a mindset change, seeing minigrids as essential infrastructure, not niche experiments. 

This is where technical assistance can evolve from advisory to catalytic – bridging gaps, unlocking bottlenecks, and backing those already delivering on the ground.

In a sector where every number counts, ignoring minigrids because they don’t move the utility needle misses the point entirely. Few areas of the energy sector offer the creativity, resilience, and momentum found in the minigrid space.

From risk to rules: Rethinking regulatory uncertainty

Regulatory uncertainty remains one of the sector’s most persistent barriers. Across many markets, unclear rules on licensing, tariffs, interconnection, and asset ownership create legal risk, especially with the threat of sudden grid arrival stranding minigrid assets.

But the response to that risk is becoming clearer. Countries are no longer guessing what fit-for-purpose regulation looks like – they’re building it. 

Zambia offers a promising example. Since the 2020 Energy Act, it has introduced flexible regulations by project size, exempting minigrids under 250 kW. Compensation frameworks are also growing. Nigeria now gives developers three options if the grid arrives: interconnect, sell assets and receive two years’ profits, or operate as a backup. Similarly, Sierra Leone links compensation to asset value and revenue history.

Minigrid companies don’t want more regulation, just better regulation: frameworks that provide predictability, certainty and enforceability. Through UNDP’s Africa Minigrids Program, funded by the Global Environment Facility and implemented together with RMI and AfDB, we show how transparent national planning, licensing fast tracks, and dedicated frameworks turn regulatory risk into investible opportunity. Standardized tools like the African Model Mini-Grid Regulations also help countries adapt faster to investor needs.

Bankability and revenue risk: Smarter models, not bigger guarantees

It’s a familiar concern. Minigrids serve low-income communities, raising fears about revenue stability and long-term viability. Early-stage development is also costly and risky, leading some to doubt whether minigrids can scale without heavy subsidies or guarantees.

But these concerns overlook what’s already working.

Minigrids grow from real demand, strengthened by reliable power and productive uses like cold storage, agro-processing, and digital services. Companies manage revenue risk through tiered tariffs, anchor clients, and diversified customer bases. Many now boost profitability through additional revenue from commercial clients and productive use applications, while tools like prepayment, mobile money, and smart metres make collections more predictable.

One persistent constraint, however, is limited visibility into consumption and performance data, which hinders financial modelling. While next-gen smart metres could help, their costs remain a barrier, especially for smaller developers.

Sector-wide efforts are improving data quality to support smarter planning, demand modelling and market intelligence— for example, AMDA’s Benchmarking Reports and tools like World Bank Group’s DRE Atlas, launched at the workshop, an open-access geospatial platform that identifies communities suited to DRE solutions. 

This is where donors and partners can unlock real value, by backing open standards, pooled procurement, and shared data platforms that lower costs and improve bankability.

More than new technology, the sector needs models grounded in real-world operations. Subsidies will remain, as they do for national grids, but must be targeted, transparent, and catalytic through results-based financing and performance-linked grants.

Minigrids are foundational infrastructure, not plug-and-play systems. They require a carefully sequenced capital stack, early-stage, risk-tolerant equity, combined with subsidies and longer-term debt, all supported by technical assistance to build viable pipelines and create conditions for commercial capital to follow.

Financing: Start with equity, then layer debt

One of the biggest barriers to scale isn’t a lack of capital, it’s a mismatch in timing and risk distribution. Too often, projects are expected to absorb debt before they’re investment-ready. In early-stage or fragile markets, that sequencing sets them up to fail.

What’s needed first is patient, risk-absorbing equity to build track record, validate the business case, build companies and prepare projects for scale. Only then does debt – whether concessional, blended, or commercial – become a meaningful tool for growth.

The good news? Momentum is building. The World Bank Group and the African Development Bank recently announced the launch of Zafiri, an IFC-led investment company that will provide up to US$300 million in patient equity to DRE companies, with the aim of scaling up to $1 billion in a second phase. New blended structures, refinancing tools, and performance-based models are also improving the sector’s risk-return profile.

We’re also seeing a shift from grant dependency toward blended finance and greater mobilization of commercial capital. The Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP) offers a clear example. By combining funding from the World Bank and African Development Bank with private sector investment, NEP has deployed of hundreds of minigrids across the country, demonstrating how properly structured finance can unlock large-scale results. 

New tools are also changing how governments approach risk. UNDP’s updated De-risking Renewable Energy Investment (DREI) Framework helps identify investment barriers, quantify their cost, and co-create solutions with the private sector, embedding a de-risking mindset into national planning and unlocking capital by design, not by chance.

Together, these shifts point to something bigger. Not just more capital, but smarter capital;  sequenced, aligned, and deployed where it can unlock real scale.

From fatigue to focus: The real work starts now

Donor fatigue isn’t a response to failure, it’s a response to repetition. The frustration comes not from too many pilots, but from too few lessons carried forward. For years, technical assistance has been overly focused on frameworks over follow-through, design over delivery, and plans without proximity.

That’s finally changing.

A new wave of support is emerging that listens more, embeds deeper, and stays longer. 

The Minigrid Market Fundamentals workshop showed us that the sector isn’t stuck. It’s building. Quietly, innovatively, and with real momentum.

Minigrids aren’t just about energy access. They’re about the creativity and ingenuity of the people building them, often with limited capital, significant uncertainty, and high stakes. If we’re looking for scalable solutions that meet real needs, this is the space to watch. 

Not because it’s easy. But because it’s already delivering.

The Minigrid Market Fundamentals workshop was co-hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), with support of the African Development Bank’s Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (AfDB/SEFA), the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF).