LocationsCountries in ‘constitutional limbo’ need more development support, not less
August 6, 2025
To protect the most vulnerable, the international community must rethink the strategy of pausing development assistance during times of constitutional crisis.
It’s a tale at once tragic and, in recent times, dispiritingly familiar. A country’s leadership is upended via irregular means – coup, insurrection, electoral interference, constitutional revision. Amidst the upheaval, everything, from trust in public institutions and the rule of law to essential services that keep the lights on, hospitals and clinics attending those in need of health treatment and kids in school, grinds to a halt. At the same time, the international community calls for ‘a pause’ of development support, waiting for the dust to settle before determining when and how to respond, even as this hesitancy often adds to the dust storm.
Counterintuitive as it might seem, our experience indicates that maintaining or even amplifying support during periods of constitutional limbo can speed stabilization and create a runway to a firmer development trajectory. The international community has now the opportunity to rethink this strategy in supporting the over 5 million severely impacted people in the recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar. Over 3,600 lives lost – and many more unaccounted for – on top a compounding and political crisis. In moments like this not less, but more development can make a big difference if it reaches all areas – irrespective under what authority control – and moves quickly from relief into early recovery and opening spaces for peace.
Aid alone is no panacea, to be sure. But if allocated strategically, it can help embed capabilities and systems to bolster resilience from the grassroots upwards. It can prevent a country’s most vulnerable people from spiralling into extreme poverty and protect hard-won development gains that might otherwise take decades to recover.
Maintaining or even increasing international support can help prevent a moment of political chaos from devolving into a prolonged cycle of economic and social regression.
Unconstitutional change of government
Over the past four years, at least ten countries have experienced such unconstitutional changes of government, or UCGs. These are often accompanied by civil uprisings, internal and external geopolitical tensions, and mass displacement, undermining democratic norms and jeopardizing the social contract.
Faced with such uncertainty, it is of little surprise that the political instinct of many international partners is to freeze or reduce operations. Often, the immediate reaction is to pull back aid, waiting for political solutions to emerge smoothly and fill the vacuum.
But this exacerbates the risk that a moment of political chaos may devolve into a prolonged vicious cycle of economic and social regression, marked by an erosion of human rights and of opportunity that impedes recovery.
Instead, evidence suggests that a pivot to protecting human development gains – to building back local economies, capabilities and resilience – may be the wiser approach.
Keeping local food markets running reduces undernutrition and the risk of famine. Ensuring access to basic education and healthcare prevents epidemics and health crises. Supporting ongoing skills development and livelihood creation allows local businesses to survive and grow. Investments in renewable energy and water systems keep people secure during a time when larger public utilities may no longer function optimally.
The consequences of an ‘aid freeze’ or inaction are devastating, plunging already vulnerable populations into deeper darkness and despair just when resources are acutely needed.
After the 2020 military overthrow of the Malian government, for instance, many international donors suspended development projects; by 2021, UNICEF was reporting that over 1.5 million children across Mali were out of school. Similarly, Myanmar's 2021 military coup led to an 18 percent economic contraction, with the poverty rate doubling and the middle class disappearing. And now, there is a near famine situation in parts of Rakhine.
Consider these setbacks with our experience in Afghanistan. Following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, UNDP focused on facilitating continuity in essential public services like clinics, resuscitating small irrigation and water works, and ramping up delivery through local NGOs and civil society organizations, strengthening local capabilities and systems in the process.
A rapid response mechanism was established in partnership with the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and Malaria and donors including the EU, Germany, Japan and others. This critical facility helped stabilize access to essential services, extend jobs, provide SME support, and rebuild community infrastructure and basic services, ultimately benefiting 24 million people over a three-year period up to September 2024. Additionally, 3.5 million Afghan citizens gained access to clean energy that could power clinics, waste management operations, schools and homes. The situation remains one of human development distress, and by no means are the people of Afghanistan out of the woods. However, early investments in basic household economic space and activity have helped weather some of the storm.
"Counterintuitive as it might seem, our experience indicates that maintaining or even amplifying support during periods of constitutional limbo can speed stabilization and create a runway to a firmer development trajectory."
While each UCG is unique and demands a targeted response, women and girls tend to bear the brunt of the instability. The case of Afghanistan was no exception. In response to the almost complete erasure of women from public life, UNDP has been marshalling opportunities to empower Afghan women in trade and business, one of the few spaces protected for women’s opportunities. To date, some 80,000 women-owned and run businesses have availed themselves of partnership-supported investments in financing, vocational training, access to markets, and digital technology. This effort has created close to 450,000 jobs, mostly for women and youth.
When an earthquake struck Herat in 2023, UNDP was able to enlist its extensive local network to rapidly set up cash-for-work programmes, build transitional shelters and put in place longer-term recovery packages for the benefit of whole villages – including some that had been fully destroyed. These initiatives are now being scaled.
Returning to Myanmar, we have an opportunity to shift gears as part of the Myanmar’s earthquake response and bring back support to an early recovery process that focuses on the rebuild of local economic opportunity, livelihoods and basic infrastructure.
Seizing the moment
One lesson to be gleaned from the Herat experience is the importance of leveraging influence as early as possible to advocate for long-term, community-driven responses. UCGs create a fleeting window of opportunity in which development partners can channel resources toward adaptive capacities in affected communities, relying on actors in the ground rather than on state structures. This window, however, closes rapidly as the aftermath of a UCG often leads to political volatility and waning international attention.
An earlier and continuous presence on the ground is invaluable for operating swiftly and effectively. Being present before, during and after a crisis allows for nimble, responsive interventions that can adjust to meet the moment, using local knowledge to mitigate the immediate effects of a crisis while laying the groundwork for longer term sustainable recovery.
Capacity-building plays a pivotal role in this context, enabling communities to adapt their skills and behaviours to changing circumstances, thereby reducing their dependence on prolonged humanitarian aid. By investing in strategies that deepen local resilience, such as in climate adaptation, water management, or energy security, development partners can help communities to build futures that can better withstand shocks.
Our experience in Afghanistan underscores the importance of maintaining a gender-sensitive approach that foregrounds the impact on women and girls. This requires a steadfast commitment to fostering gender equity and justice, particularly in contexts where cultural or systemic barriers undermine their space, voice and autonomy.
Finally, strengthening risk management and compliance mechanisms improves accountability and effectiveness, particularly where the standard systems for monitoring and reporting have been hampered. In volatile post-UCG environments, the risks of resource diversion and mismanagement escalate. Conducting regular spot checks, running targeted surveys, and using available digital, AI and satellite data become critical not only to protect the integrity of aid delivery, but also to build trust among donors and local stakeholders. Granted, these measures may require additional training across the board for those used to more traditional management systems. But if deployed correctly, they can lay the foundation for more hands-on and collaborative systems, co-managed by local communities and development partners.
Here, we should state the obvious: these interventions must be pursued in parallel with, not instead of, emergency aid, which, during the onset of a UCG can be essential to address immediate life-saving needs.
Following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, UNDP focused on livelihood support and ensuring continuity in essential services. Ramping up delivery through local NGOs and civil society organizations also helped to build local capabilities and systems.
Upending the traditional playbook
The looming global threat of more UCGs and their protracted impacts warrant a rethink of development continuity in moments of political upheaval. In the Asia-Pacific region, from which 90 percent of the next decade’s global middle-class growth is projected to originate, any geopolitical tremors will invariably reverberate, affecting everything from global economic trends to the dynamics of interconnected local markets. In adopting a pragmatic approach to UCGs, the international community can stem development losses, contain negative repercussions on regional and global cooperation and reinforce the foundations for future resilience. Even peace.
The recent earthquake to strike Myanmar wrought devastation across regions like Sagaing and Mandalay, leaving millions in urgent need of early to longer-term recovery support. It was also a stark reminder of the profound challenges of aiding a nation already fractured by political upheaval and ongoing conflict. The sheer magnitude of the disaster necessitates a swift and substantial international response to this recovery, yet the fractured governance landscape presents a formidable obstacle to doing so.
With control of territory contested and administrative legitimacy in question following the unconstitutional change of government of 2021, the very mechanisms for coordinating and delivering assistance, ensuring equitable access to all affected communities, and establishing clear channels for claims and support for rebuilding are fraught with uncertainty. In an era of tightening ODA budgets and a news cycle often diverted by other pressing crises, the conventional playbook for post-disaster aid may prove woefully insufficient if not inadequate. Vital early recovery efforts and sustained direct development support must reach all those impacted, if the rebuild is to ultimately foster a genuine path towards that elusive peace.
UNDP’s steadfast commitment to continue to deliver development in the face of shocks reflects our organization’s broad human development mandate and code. As we navigate an increasingly fraught global landscape, we see the protection of human development as worthy of a goal as that of constitutional integrity. We hope our international partners share this view and match bold action with flexible resources to invest directly in community capabilities and resilience when troubles arise. Together, we can help break the cycles of instability and vulnerability to advance human development, reducing the likelihood of future UCGs as we succeed.
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