LocationsBelarus has officially adopted its NDC 3.0 at the national level and submitted it to UNFCCC on 10 of November 2025. The plan’s new headline target is an unconditional economy-wide emissions reduction of 42% by 2035 from 1990 levels. The conditional target has increased to 47%.
Belarus Adopts NDC 3.0: Testing the Paris Agreement's Promise in Practice
November 20, 2025
Photo: UNDP in Belarus
Nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, are the heart of the Paris Agreement on climate change. They are the individual, national blueprints, outlining how each country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions and the timeline for reaching net-zero. In the run-up to the 2015 Paris summit, nations were wary of the top-down targets prescribed under the previous Kyoto protocol. Instead, they opted for a bottom-up system where each government would offer the emissions cuts it deemed feasible.
However, this flexibility came with a significant challenge: the initial set of NDCs, even if followed, would still lead to the dangerous global warming of more than 3°C. To fix this gap, the Paris Agreement contains a ‘ratchet mechanism’ – a process by which, every five years, countries must return to the negotiating table with stronger, more ambitious commitments, theoretically bringing the world closer to its main climate goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.
Prior to the world leaders gathering this week at the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, countries were expected to have already submitted their new, third-generation NDCs. As of now, 119 parties have formally presented their NDC 3.0.
Amid this global momentum, the journey of individual nations like Belarus provides an insight into how the Paris process can work in practice.
The Story of a Climate Ambition
Photo: UNDP in Belarus
Like all signatories, Belarus started with an initial pledge. Its first NDC (NDC 1.0) committed to a 28% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. When the first ratchet cycle came around (NDC 2.0), the country pushed that target to 35% unconditionally, with a conditional target of 40% if international financing came through.
None of this happened by accident. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has been working on the ground in countries like Belarus to help turn abstract pledges into concrete action. This support provides the foundation for climate policy: helping governments enhance their targets, accelerate implementation, and ensure the process is inclusive.
For the country's NDC 1.0, UNDP provided technical support, assisting with preparing the greenhouse gas inventory, conducting scenario modeling, and ensuring alignment with the Paris Agreement.
This partnership deepened for NDC 2.0. Working through the EU4Climate programme, UNDP helped conduct detailed sectoral analysis and scenario projections. Furthermore, this support strengthened national institutions through capacity-building for Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems. It also ensured a more inclusive approach by integrating adaptation priorities, gender and youth considerations, and broad stakeholder consultations into national climate planning.
By the time Belarus turned to its NDC 3.0, it could tap into UNDP's global Climate Promise initiative, operating in over 140 countries, helping them to make climate pledges more ambitious and implementable.
National expert on the development of NDC3.0 Alexander Grebenkov. A member of the UNDP-supported Interagency Working Group.
Photo: UNDP in Belarus
A key component of this assistance involved providing technical guidance and quality assurance tools, such as the NDC 3.0 Quality Assurance Checklist. This framework ensured the new pledge was robust across five critical dimensions: country ownership and inclusivity, ambition, a just transition, transparency, and feasibility.
This guidance also helped align the NDC targets with Belarus' broader development priorities, including its Long-term Low GHG Emission Development Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A UNDP-supported Interagency Working Group coordinated the whole effort, pulling in key ministries and scientific institutions.
NDC 3.0: A Deeper, More Inclusive Blueprint
Belarus has officially adopted its NDC 3.0 at the national level and submitted it to UNFCCC on 10 of November 2025. The plan’s new headline target is an unconditional economy-wide emissions reduction of 42% by 2035 from 1990 levels. The conditional target has increased to 47%.
Achieving these ambitious targets requires a detailed, multi-faceted approach that deep dives into the specific actions planned for each key sector of the economy.
Photo: UNDP in Belarus
The NDC 3.0 centers on the energy sector, the country’s largest source of emissions. It includes a significant push for fuel switching to natural gas and biomass, expanding wind and solar capacity, and electrification of industrial and residential heating systems. A focus is also placed on the transport sector with targets to increase the share of urban electric transport to 40% and expand the electric vehicle fleet to 693,000 units by 2035 under the most ambitious scenario.
The plan also addresses emissions from industry through technological modernization in cement and chemical production. In the waste sector, the plan integrates circular economy principles to boost recycling rates to 50% and capture landfill methane.
Photo: UNDP in Belarus
In agriculture, the focus is on sustainable practices like precision farming and biogas capture from livestock manure. This mitigation effort is complemented by leveraging the country's vast forests, which act as a major carbon sink, through enhanced afforestation and the restoration of degraded peatlands — a nature-based solution that benefits both emissions reduction and biodiversity.
However, the real story of Belarus' third-generation NDC isn't just the numbers or sectoral targets, but in its structure and depth. The upgraded plan represents far more than a simple emissions target.
First, it places inclusivity at its core. The plan explicitly aims to be gender and youth responsive.
Young people took an active part in developing NDC3.0 for Belarus
Photo: UNDP in Belarus
This is not just a box-ticking exercise; it is a recognition that climate change impacts individual demographics differently, and that effective policy requires their voices and participation. This NDC 3.0 framework formalizes a whole-of-society approach, ensuring that dialogue with civil society, the private sector, academia, and youth directly inform the co-creation of the country's climate pledges.
Tarpan horses in the Naliboksky Nature Reserve help maintain meadow ecosystems in their natural condition.
Photo: UNDP in Belarus.
Second, the plan places a new emphasis on Nature-Based Solutions (NbS). This is a shift towards a more holistic strategy that uses the power of ecosystems like forests and wetlands for both mitigation (they absorb carbon) and adaptation (they buffer communities from climate impacts). These solutions offer dual benefits: they are often more cost-effective while simultaneously enhancing biodiversity and human well-being.
Finally, the new NDC is being developed in parallel with a Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy to 2050. This provides the long-term vision necessary to ensure that today's actions are aligned with a credible path toward a net-zero future.
From Ambition to Action
Belarus' NDC 3.0 features detailed sectoral targets, focuses on inclusivity and long-term strategic alignment with national priorities. Such an approach represents a model of how the Paris Agreement's ratchet mechanism is supposed to function. The progression from 28% to 35% to 42% shows the ratchet turning.
With all eyes on developments in Belém, the third round of NDCs serves as a reminder that the success of any national effort will ultimately depend on whether the global community can make good on its collective promises. COP30 represents a critical opportunity to strengthen cooperation, ensure adequate support flows to advancing climate ambition, and prove that the Paris Agreement's promise of ambitious climate action can become a global reality.
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