Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen

Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen

February 22, 2020

Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen is motivated by a desire to better understand the impact of conflict in Yemen across multiple pathways of human development. We assess this by calibrating the International Futures (IFs) model to create four alternative scenarios. These scenarios reflect three potential pathways of conflict development (ending in 2019, 2022 and 2030), as well as a counterfactual world in which conflict did not escalate after 2014. With these scenarios we estimate the impact of conflict on development across multiple issue areas (demographic, economic, education, infrastructure, health, etc.). 

The first report, Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen, concludes that the ongoing conflict has further reduced the pace of development. The impacts of conflict in Yemen are devastating—with nearly a quarter of a million people killed by fighting and through lack of access to food, health services and infrastructure. Of the deaths, 60 per cent are children under the age of five.  This is the most destructive conflict since the end of the Cold War with long-term vast long-term impacts that have already set back human development in Yemen back by 21 years.

The second report, Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen on Achieving the SDGs, expands upon the first report by analyzing how the conflict is changing development across four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The four SDGs were chosen based upon core United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) priorities and are: SDG 1: No Poverty; SDG2: Zero Hunger; SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; and, SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities. Although Yemen was not on course to achieve the SDGs by 2030, with the persisting conflict, as of today Yemen will not achieve the SDGs until 2061 — a full 31 years after the deadline. 

The third report, Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen: Pathways for Recovery, explores post-conflict recovery and finds that war has continued to devastate the country. The conflict’s death toll has grown 60 per cent since 2019 and the nation continues to rank lowest on several global gender index rankings. The report makes a case for the critical role of women and youth in the recovery and reconstruction process in Yemen and predicts that, if a sustainable and implementable peace deal can be reached, there is still hope for a more inclusive and brighter future in Yemen

More resources

An executive summary on the first and second Impact of War reports