The transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future is not only a technical challenge, it is fundamentally a governance and political economy challenge. Understanding the political, institutional and socioeconomic dynamics shaping reform is critical to advancing green transitions that are just, inclusive and people-centred. If neglected, these dynamics can hinder and or entirely derail transition processes.

This UNDP Guidance Note provides a practical framework for integrating Political Economy Analysis (PEA) into programming for just green transitions and supports systems thinking. It helps advance UNDP’s Climate Promise and just transition programmes more broadly and can be applied flexibly across contexts and at different levels of intensity.

Building on existing guidance by UNDP and others, the framework is designed around six guiding questions:

• What: What is the most salient question to analyse?
• Who: Who are the stakeholders that influence policy-making?
• Why: What makes these actors tick?
• Where: Where is ‘the game being played’? What are key formal and informal institutions?
• How: What resources and capabilities do stakeholders have to influence policy?
• So What: How to use the results strategically to maintain or alter the status quo?

The analysis helps practitioners understand how actors, interests, incentives, institutions, and power dynamics interact and shape transition pathways, leaving some to benefit and others to bear the costs. Road-testing of the Guide shows it can help UNDP Country Offices and their national counterparts navigate political and institutional realities, foster inclusive coalitions, and identify opportunities and constraints for transition policies that are effective, inclusive and sustainable.