14 April 2026, Khartoum – Sudan could see extreme poverty rise above 60 percent, with an additional 34 million people pushed into deprivation, if the current conflict continues until 2030, according to a major new analysis released today, on the eve of the war’s third anniversary.

The report, Beyond the Conflict: Charting a Path to Sustainable Growth and Development in Sudan, published jointly by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), offers the most comprehensive long-term scenario analysis of Sudan’s development trajectory since fighting began in April 2023. It quantifies both the cost of the past three years of war and the scale of losses that continued conflict would entail.

Sudan lost an estimated US$6.4 billion in GDP in 2023 alone, with nearly 7 million people pushed into extreme poverty in a single year. Average incomes have dropped to a level last seen in 1992, while extreme poverty rates are worse than in the 1980s. More than 13 million people are displaced. If the war continues to 2030, the report projects that Sudan’s GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower than under a no-conflict scenario, with GDP per capita declining by approximately US$1,700. Extreme poverty would exceed 60 percent of the population – equivalent to 52 million people. That is 34 million more than would have been the case without war, an increase larger than the entire population of Ghana.

“Three years into this conflict, we are not just facing a crisis – we are witnessing the systematic erosion of a country’s future,” said Luca Renda, UNDP Resident Representative in Sudan. “These figures are not abstract. They reflect families torn apart, children out of school, livelihoods lost, and a generation whose prospects are steadily diminishing.”

Even under a more optimistic scenario in which the war ends in 2026, recovery would remain slow. The report projects average economic growth of just 1.2 percent through 2043 – well below the average for low-income African countries – with GDP per capita remaining below early-1990s levels well into the 2040s.

Using the International Futures modelling system, the report also outlines an alternative “Sudan Rising” scenario. If peace is restored and reforms are pursued across governance, agriculture, health, education, infrastructure, and trade, Sudan’s GDP could reach US$58.2 billion by 2043, with average growth accelerating to 5 percent. Under this scenario, 17.3 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty, and life expectancy would increase by 4.2 years.

Peace is a necessary condition for recovery, but it will not be sufficient. A political settlement must be followed by a sequenced programme of institutional and economic reform, supported by sustained international engagement. The report is unsparing in its analysis that the opportunity to realize these gains is shrinking fast.

“The data show that recovery remains possible, but every month of continued conflict makes it more difficult and more costly,” added Renda. “The choices made now will determine whether Sudan’s trajectory can still be reversed.”

For more information contact:

Hajer Suliman, UNDP Sudan, Head of Communications, hajer.suliman@undp.org 

Mobile and WhatsApp +249 918 008 819

About UNDP Sudan 

UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet. Learn more at www.undp.org/sudan or follow at:

Facebook: UNDP Sudan | X : @UNDP_Sudan | LinkedIn: UNDP Sudan | Instagram: UNDPSudan

About ISS

With offices in all key regions in Africa, the Institute for Security Studies partners to build knowledge and skills that secure Africa’s future. The African Futures & Innovation program in the Pretoria office of the Institute models Africa’s long-term development prospects. 
Learn more at: https://futures.issafrica.org