LocationsBridging the water gap: what a flood taught us about resilience in Kazakhstan
June 23, 2025
Chaglinskoye reservoir
Looking back at the past year in Kazakhstan, I’m struck by how nature can disrupt routines and how people when challenged, can respond with resolve.
When I began my assignment as UNDP’s Technical Advisor to the Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan was hit by the most devastating flood in its recent history. Ten regions were affected, damages ran into the hundreds of billions of tenge, and communities across the country faced disruption on an unprecedented scale.
The flood wasn’t caused by just one factor but rather a combination of several: frozen soil, deep snowpacks, rapidly rising spring temperatures, and ice-clogged rivers all played a role. In the north, especially near Petropavlovsk, river discharge rates surged to more than double their normal spring levels.
At the time, Kazakhstan lacked a reliable early warning system to predict flood peaks or provide communities with sufficient time to prepare. But the crisis triggered action. What started as a technical advisory role quickly became a mission to help build something new: a functioning, modern early warning system.
In just a few months, and thanks to strong collaboration between the Ministry, the Information Analytical Centre (IAC), UNDP, the Embassy of the Netherlands, and the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, we launched a pilot forecasting system for two river basins Yessil and Nura-Sarysu. It combined advanced modelling tools and local data systems to provide near real-time insights. Among the software of this forecasting system were TALSIM for hydrological modelling, Delft-FEWS as a data pre- and postprocessing tool, and QAZSU, developed by the Information Analytical Centre (IAC), as a web-based front-end information system.
This system was tested in March 2025, when it accurately forecasted flood hotspots along the Atbasar and Kalkutan rivers. In early April, the predictions came true. At Kalkutan, a village was surrounded by water and had to be evacuated. While the models performed well, the experience also revealed how much more we need to learn, especially when refining forecasts and translating them into clear, timely alerts for communities.
1) Balkashino hydropost 2) Kalkutan river 3) Atbasar city 4) Sergeyevskoye reservoir
To see things firsthand, we set off on a field trip in April. Together with colleagues from the Ministry, UNDP, and IAC, we visited key locations across the Yesil basin. Standing at the edge of the flooded plains, it became clear that no satellite image could replace the insights gained from being on the ground. Hydrologists can spot details such as changes in flow conditions, the shape of a riverbank, and overland flow that help make models more accurate and responsive.
One of our stops was Atbasar, a town regularly affected by floods. Despite dredging efforts, the riverbanks remain vulnerable due to poor materials and temporary fixes. Some residents have lived there for generations and are reluctant to move, even as climate change makes such floods more frequent. It’s a difficult conversation, but one we must have to find long-term, community-supported solutions.
We also visited dams, each with a story to tell. The Sergeevskoye dam, with its enormous spillway, gives a perfect snapshot to deal with huge fluctuations of flow. In contrast, the Petropavlovsk dam, overwhelmed during the 2024 floods, had to rely on emergency bypasses. At the Chaglinskoye dam, which supports water supply for Kokshetau, operators face the constant balancing act between storing water and keeping enough room for floods. Here, forecasting plays a crucial role: knowing when and how much water will arrive can help make smarter decisions.
The development of the flood early warning system within a few months was a success story. Still, the system is far away from being perfect and it will require more effort for sure. But a first step is made and the time has come to ramp up flood and drought early warning in Kazakhstan and to expand to other major river basins in the country.
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