Afghanistan’s crisis is structural, chronic, and demands urgent and coordinated action.

Afghanistan is facing a complex poly-crisis, driven by mass population returns, entrenched poverty, shrinking international assistance, climate shocks, and the systematic exclusion of women.

1. Mass returns are overwhelming already fragile systems and services.
Since 2023, nearly five million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan, including 2.7 million in 2025 alone. Many arrived abruptly, without assets, savings or legal documentation. Recent returnees are the most vulnerable group in the country, with more than nine in ten unable to meet their basic needs. The scale and speed of returns are placing immense pressure on jobs, services, housing, water systems and host communities, particularly in eastern and western border provinces.

2. Poverty remains widespread and deeply entrenched.
In 2025, three in four Afghans (74%) were unable to meet their basic subsistence needs, a level that has shown no meaningful improvement for three consecutive years. Deprivation remains severe across food security, water access, housing, healthcare, heating and clothing. There was also a worrying rise in the casualization of labour. Household coping strategies are reaching their limits, with rising debt, declining purchasing power and growing dependence on informal support networks.

3. Economic growth is not strong enough to improve living standards.
While Afghanistan recorded modest GDP growth of 1.9 percent in FY2024/25, this was far below what is needed to trigger economic recovery and is not translating into improved livelihoods. The mass influx of returnees has meant per capita incomes are in decline, with employment growth failing to absorb new job market entrants. The economy remains constrained by energy shortages, credit inaccessibility, uncertainty in trade and regulation, women’s exclusion and limited private sector investment. 

4. Women’s exclusion is a critical barrier to recovery.
Afghanistan remains the only country in the world where girls are banned from secondary and tertiary education. Restrictions on women’s employment, movement and access to services intensified in 2025, deepening a national human capabilities crisis. Women face rising barriers to accessing healthcare, shrinking education opportunities, and are excluded from accessing legal documentation. This is undermining household welfare, shrinking the labor force and damaging the country’s long‑term economic potential.

5. Climate shocks and aid reductions are compounding deprivations.
Drought affected nearly two thirds of households in 2025, triggering a nationwide water crisis and collapsing agricultural livelihoods. At the same time, total international assistance declined by 16.5 percent in 2025, despite rising needs. These cuts are impacting severely on the provision of basic services, pushing the health system in particular towards systemic failure. These overlapping shocks are driving long‑term vulnerability and insecurity.

A deepening crisis for Afghanistan’s women and girls

• As of 2025, girls’ school attendance has stagnated at around 42 percent, compared to 73 percent for boys, reflecting the continued ban on post‑primary education for girls and a widening gender gap in human capital. 
• Female literacy is dramatically lower than male literacy. Among household heads in provinces for which there was data, only 29 percent of women were literate in 2025, compared to 61 percent of men, indicating a deep and persistent gender gap in basic education and skills that constrains women’s economic participation and access to services. 
• In 2025, over 440 health facilities were suspended or closed due to funding shortfalls, while women faced additional barriers including mahram requirements, shortages of female medical staff, and mobility restrictions. As a result, one in three female‑headed households reported being unable to access needed healthcare. 
• Survey data cited in ASER shows that 56 percent of women left their homes less than once per day, and 21 percent less than once per week in 2025, reflecting intensified restrictions on women’s mobility and access to public life. These restrictions directly affect access to healthcare, education, markets and social support, and impact significantly upon women’s mental wellbeing. 
• A large share of women lack legal identity documentation. In 2025, only 38 percent of households reported that all female members possessed valid civil documentation, while 18 percent reported that no female household members had any valid ID at all. This severely restricts women’s access to healthcare, assistance, education, mobility and legal protection.

Key Recommendations 

Addressing Afghanistan’s deepening crisis requires sustained international engagement, inclusive economic approaches, and protection of fundamental rights – particularly for women and girls.

1. Continue lifesaving assistance while investing beyond subsistence.
Humanitarian and basic needs support remains essential for the 74 percent of Afghans unable to meet their subsistence needs. External assistance must be flexible and sustained as delayed investments in water systems, renewable energy, job creating businesses, and climate‑resilient infrastructure in the communities and areas of return will be costly.2. Restore women’s rights as an economic and social imperative.
Lifting restrictions on women’s and girls’ education, employment and freedom of movement is essential for recovery. Afghanistan cannot rebuild its economy or deliver essential services without women. Restoring post‑primary education for girls and abrogating bans on  women’s full participation in health, education and economic life are among the most urgent priorities.

3. Protect and expand livelihoods, especially for returnees.
Mass returns are straining labor markets and driving down wages. Livelihood support should focus on linking returnees’ skills to local markets, expanding vocational training, micro‑enterprise grants and access to finance, particularly for women, youth and informal workers. Strengthening microfinance and de‑risking credit for small businesses is critical.

4. Prioritize the most vulnerable groups and regions.
Recent returnees, female‑headed households, internally displaced people, and residents of drought‑affected regions require targeted, area‑based interventions. Integrated packages combining livelihoods, water access, shelter, energy and services are essential to prevent deepening deprivation, inequality and social tension.

5. Build foundational social protection mechanisms.
Incremental social protection systems – such as cash transfers, health insurance, and disaster risk financing – can reduce reliance on debt and informal coping strategies, improving household resilience over time. They can also provide a crucial platform for a comprehensive, long-term social protection system in the future. 

6. Strengthen climate and water resilience and invest in renewable energy.
Urgent investment is needed in climate‑resilient agriculture, water management, drought mitigation, and local infrastructure to address Afghanistan’s systemic environmental crisis and protect livelihoods. Energy is cricial: investment in renewable energy will support the delivery of essential services and provide a critical prerequisite for economic growth. 

7. Enable private sector led recovery.
Reviving the private sector requires regulatory predictability, a thriving banking sector, expanded access to energy, and improved trade connectivity. In the meantime, supporting women‑led and home‑based enterprises can generate inclusive growth even under restrictive conditions.

Without sustained support, inclusive growth and restored rights, Afghanistan’s crisis will continue to deepen – placing millions more at risk and undermining regional stability.