Every year, Pakistan adds between 3.5 and 4 million young people to working age, roughly the population of Croatia. We often describe this as a demographic dividend waiting to happen. Having grown up in Vietnam during its own demographic transition, I learned that dividends do not simply arrive. They are built through choices, and some of the most important are the choices women are allowed to make.

Whether Pakistan's growing population becomes its greatest asset or its greatest challenge is not a question for the future. It is being decided now, in classrooms girls never reach and clinics women cannot access.

The real challenge is not how many people Pakistan has, but how many can participate productively in its economy. When opportunity keeps pace with population growth, a young population becomes a source of growth and innovation. When it does not, potential turns into frustration, dependency, and strain that no economy can absorb indefinitely.

This makes timing critical. Home to around 259 million people, according to projections by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, and one of the youngest populations in the world, Pakistan is living through a demographic moment that might not come again. A demographic dividend is a temporary opportunity, not a permanent condition. The young population of today will grow older, and countries that fail to invest in their people now will spend decades supporting them later. A dividend deferred becomes a debt.

The strain is already visible. Public services struggle to keep pace with rising demand, while the gap widens between those who are dependent and those who earn. Behind this lies a fact often overlooked: Pakistan's fertility rate is the second highest in South Asia, behind only Afghanistan.  India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have all reached or moved close to replacement level. Pakistan has not. That difference is not simply demographic. It reflects the opportunities available to women and girls.

Women and Demographic Transition

Demographic transition is usually described through fertility rates and population curves. In reality, it is a story about who can learn, work, earn, and decide.

Consider a girl in rural Pakistan who leaves school early, marries young, and becomes a mother before reaching adulthood. Multiplied across millions of households, she is not an exception; she is the country's demographic reality. For many women, the number and timing of their children is not theirs to decide, and that is where fertility rates are ultimately set. When girls stay in school and gain greater control over their lives, they marry later, have fewer children, and contribute more. Women's agency does not follow demographic transition; it drives it.

Lessons from Asia

I witnessed this firsthand in Vietnam. Rapid population growth brought pressure on schools, household budgets, and public services. What changed the trajectory was not economic growth alone, but sustained investment in people, particularly women and girls. 

Pakistan has an even closer comparison in Bangladesh. Starting from conditions that were in many respects equally difficult, Bangladesh invested consistently in girls' education, family planning, maternal health, and women's economic participation. Over time, fertility declined, child wellbeing improved, and opportunities expanded.

Vietnam and Bangladesh followed different paths shaped by different histories, but both demonstrate a consistent lesson: demographic dividends emerge when countries invest in women and girls and expand their opportunities to learn, work, and make decisions about their own lives. When that happens, demographic change becomes an engine of development rather than a challenge to manage.

The Economic Case for Women's Agency

The case for women's empowerment is not only social. It is economic.

Female labour force participation in Pakistan stands at roughly 21 percent, among the lowest in the region. Millions of Pakistani women are educated, capable, and willing to contribute, yet remain excluded from the workforce by barriers that have little to do with talent and much to do with opportunity.

The economic costs are substantial. According to World Bank estimates, Pakistan loses more than PKR 500 billion annually to the gender wage gap alone. The wider losses from low female labour force participation are even greater, reflected in lower household incomes, reduced productivity, and slower economic growth.

The same investments that help women stay in school, access healthcare, delay early marriage, and enter the workforce are the ones that reduce fertility and strengthen human capital. Demographic transition and economic development are not separate agendas; they are deeply connected.