AI Early Warning Systems:

Tipping Point for Better Climate Adaption

 

By Malaika Orakzai | Reporting & Content Development Coordinator, UNDP Pakistan


 

The potential of early warning systems applying AI can be revolutionary as they can generate glacial lake outburst floods simulations and future-based scenarios with greater precision.

The sound of rushing water can be a death knell in the remote valleys of Northen Pakistan. The threat of sudden devastating floods looms over millions as over 10,000 out of almost 13,000 glaciers recede at an alarming rate due to rising temperatures as a result of climate change. 

These receding glaciers create the catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, commonly known as GLOFs.1 These outburst floods put 7.1 million people at risk of losing their homes and livelihoods.2 Climate induced disasters have become more unpredictable. Fortunately, AI has emerged as a powerful solution to address the uncertainty. AI enhanced early warning systems have been revolutionary as they generate GLOF simulations and future-based scenarios with greater precision. Countries such as Nepal and Switzerland have employed AI-powered early warning models to predict and mitigate GLOFs. 

Pakistan has also integrated AI-driven simulations and multilingual alert systems for better disaster preparedness. The GLOF-II project is a joint initiative of the UNDP and the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, supported by the Green Climate Fund. This initiative has installed 192 early warning systems in the 24 most climate vulnerable valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These high-tech systems have been installed in collaboration with the Pakistan Meteorological Department to generate data based on any weather changes sensed and transmitting timely alerts to the communities who are able to prepare and evacuate on time. The project has 421,232 people under its protective reach.

“If the water depth exceeds the predefined threshold, the system immediately transmits data with a warning to the intended server. The warning helps trigger an alarm for timely evacuation before disaster strikes a valley.”
Faisal Jahanzeb, Mechanical Engineer, GLOF-II
© UNDP Pakistan

The early warning systems consists of advanced automatic weather stations, rain gauges, water depth gauges, data loggers and warning posts designed to monitor and detect climate-induced hazards. The system generates real-time data that is transmitted through satellite and Global System for Mobile Communications networks to the primary server based in Islamabad. These systems capture data after every ten minutes for rainfall, irradiance, wind direction, snowfall, water level and discharge. 

AI has significantly enhanced the predictive capabilities of the systems as it maps climate trends and improved early detection of risks. It allows us to make lifesaving decisions in real-time. It can identify which valleys are most likely to be affected if a GLOF hits or optimizes speedy alert transmissions in multiple languages. An AI-powered approach can also simulate different emergency scenarios which can provide insights for better safety plans in communities. It can also strengthen climate resilience by providing authorities with significant insights to protect vulnerable communities from escalating climate catastrophes. 

AI is still evolving and comes with risks also. There are still issues of data accuracy which can trigger false alarms or disparities. Internet access and network issues may also compromise the system’s effectiveness. To mitigate these risks, hybrid models combining AI predictions with human verification can enhance reliability. Moreover, investing in local internet infrastructure will ensure uninterrupted communication of warnings, making the system more robust.

“Before the installation of the early warning systems we lived in constant fear, never knowing when a glacial lake outburst flood might strike. Now, with the alarm to warn us, we have the chance to evacuate in time and reach safety.”
Sitara, a member of Ghulkin Community-Based Disaster Risk Management
© UNDP Pakistan

Community engagement is at the heart of disaster precaution. The GLOF-II Project has supported communities with trainings in mock drills to respond to warnings and evacuate to seek refuge in the project’s safe havens or at the Community-Based Disaster Risk Management Centers (CBDRMC), set up by the initiative. Similarly, with the installation of these systems local communities feel more secure and protected against climate threats.

Integrating AI with early warnings systems and community driven approaches is leading Pakistan towards a blueprint of effective disaster preparedness. The current challenges of AI can be addressed while unlocking its full potential.  Therefore, paving the way for a future where technology, innovation and community resilience converge to build a stronger, resilient and sustainable shield against the threats of climate change


1.    The New Inventory of 13,032 glaciers in Pakistan: The Glaciers & Students Project, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) & United Nations Development Programme, 2024
2.    Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination