It’s getting hot in here: Productivity and climate change in LAC

February 16, 2026

Every year, the planet breaks a new temperature record. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2023, 2024 and 2025 were the top three warmest years on record, extending the past eleven years as the warmest on record observed from 2015. This global surge in temperatures has already increased the number of days people in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are exposed to heatwaves and dangerous heat episodes.

Heat stress episodes are periods when high temperatures and humidity overwhelm the body’s ability to cool itself. Sweat stops evaporating effectively, and the body can no longer release heat. As these episodes become more frequent and intense, worker’s productivity can decline since hotter conditions require greater physical effort. This is especially concerning in a region where productivity has long stagnated and lags behind other emerging economies, and where 19.4% of all workers are employed in manual labor sectors such as agriculture and construction. The increasing temperatures will eventually demand adaptation in production methods.

This #GraphForThought highlights how rising temperatures could affect labor productivity in LAC (1). The sustained rise in temperatures represents a slow-onset risk that, though less visible than extreme events, gradually degrades ecosystems, undermines human health, and reduces productivity, with cumulative impacts that intensify over time. Climate Central and World Weather Attribution track “dangerous heat days”, when temperatures exceed what was typical over the past 30 years. By comparing 2024 with the 1991–2020 average, they identify how many of these extra hot days are caused by climate change.

In 2024, at the global level, the average person experienced 41 additional dangerous heat days as result of climate change. Areas around the equator, including parts of LAC, were among the most affected, though impacts vary widely across the region. As shown in Figure 1, the average Caribbean country faced more additional dangerous heat days than the rest of LAC. Barbados, the most affected country, experienced 141 additional dangerous heat days, meaning that 45% of the year was hotter than usual. Even the least affected country in the Caribbean faced more dangerous heat days than the most exposed country in the Southern Cone, underscoring how unevenly climate change affects the region. Still, all LAC countries experienced more dangerous heat days in 2024 than they would have without climate change.

Figure 2 shows projected changes in labor productivity, comparing past productivity levels (1986-2006) with what is expected between 2030-2100 under rising temperatures. Considering past productivity as 100%, the percentage point changes show how much productivity is expected to change due to heat stress. Projections show that although the effects vary by country, productivity across all LAC countries will decline. By 2030, heat stress could lead to a 5.6 percentage points (pp) reduction in productivity in Central America, 5.4pp in the Andean countries, 4.2pp in the Caribbean, and 2.9pp in the Southern Cone. As temperatures continue to climb, these losses will deepen. By 2100, productivity in Central America and the Andes could drop by about 14 percentage points.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat but an imminent reality. A hotter climate is one of the emerging threats to human development that societies must be prepared to confront. Growing exposure to intense heat days calls for adaptation strategies that prioritize managing extreme temperatures. Early warning systems are essential to anticipate risks, protect exposed workers, and coordinate rapid responses in high-risk areas. Reducing ambient temperatures in cities and buildings must also become a policy priority. Green infrastructure, including bioclimatic corridors, urban parks, and shaded areas—combined with large-scale reforestation and urban tree-planting programs, can substantially contribute to lower local temperatures. Promoting bioclimatic building standards can also reduce dependence on air conditioning, which places heavy pressure on energy systems and contributes to carbon emissions. Anticipating the rising demand for cooling and its strain on energy systems is also important to prevent energy shortages and to expand efficient and affordable cooling solutions.

In a region that has struggled with low productivity for decades, preparing for and adapting to climate change is essential to continue advancing economic growth and human development. Working conditions in heat-exposed sectors are changing rapidly, and protecting people will require treating climate adaptation as an economic and development priority.

(1) A deeper analysis of how climate change is putting additional pressure on development in Latin America and the Caribbean can be found in Chapter 5 “Increasingly changing climate: Managing the risks of a crisis foretold”, part of the Regional Human Development Report 2025.