The Economic Impact of the War in Ukraine on Kenya's Economy

UNDP_Russia-Ukraine.jpg

The Economic Impact of the War in Ukraine on Kenya's Economy

pdf (1MB)

Download

The Economic Impact of the War in Ukraine on Kenya's Economy

July 13, 2022

This paper analyses the implications of the ongoing war in Ukraine on the Kenyan economy. It observes that this would come with disruptions in value chains for some critical inputs for Kenya’s manufacturing and agriculture sectors over and above exports destined to these countries. Disruption in value chains has resulted in price increases in; fuel and energy, wheat and fertilizer prices which are critical inputs for Kenya’s manufacturing and agriculture sector. Over and above this exchange rate depreciation has also been observed and will also feed to inflation causing an even slower economic recovery and reduction of poverty. The paper concludes by recommending the strengthening of the social protection system to protect fragile livelihoods following the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and seeking alternative export markets for Kenyan coffee and tea. Enhanced social security support can be guaranteed through an aggressive debt restructuring strategy that will keep debt service at constant levels within the short-term, suspension of fuel subsidy as well as reallocations into much needed social spending.