Targeted Scenario Analysis
Guatemala - Artisanal fisheries and tourism
In Guatemala, the results of Targeted Scenario Analysis demonstrated that under conditions of “sustainable use” and by the year 2025: capture fisheries benefits increase more than 10-fold; tourism benefits are more than GTQ 200 Million, and aquaculture's per hectare per year income – in contrast to Business as Usual – reaches a massive $40,000 more. The UNDP’s Flor Bolanos says that “The Guatemala case demonstrates how strategic advocacy can positively impact on a number of coastal and marine management initiatives: it has helped fill a critical community fishing data gap; introduced participatory strategies for sustainable use and management; sprung a programme for the prevention, reduction and control of pollution from land-based sources in Marine Protected Areas; among other changes”.
Ecuador – Artisanal and small-scale mining
In Ecuador, nearly 100,000 people directly depend on Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining (ASGM). Gold is the main export mineral, and ASGM produces at least 85% of Ecuadorian gold, which corresponds to more than USD 300,000,000 in annual income. Despite this importance, the sector lacks access to financing, which produces technological inefficiencies, and the persistent pollution from the use of mercury represents a cost of at least USD 80,000,000 per year. Read Ecuador´s Completed TSA and Policy Brief.
Kazakhstan – forestry/forest
To support the achievement of the goals set by the Government of Kazakhstan to increased forest cover, UNDP commissioned Wolfs Company and the VU University Amsterdam to perform a Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) for the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources (MEGNR) of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The TSA assesses the impact of two forest management scenarios that have been identified in consultation with stakeholders in Kazakhstan:
1. The Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU), in which current management practices are continued and historical trends in forest cover continue.
2. The Sustainable Ecosystem Management (SEM) scenario, in which investments are made to improve forest management and reach the forest cover target of 5% of the surface of Kazakhstan by 2030. Read Kazakhstan´s Completed TSA and Policy Brief.
Liberia - High value conservation forest/palm oil
The Government of Liberia has prioritized the development of agroforestry concessions, and interest from global companies confirms palm oil as a significant economic opportunity for the country; they have already invested on the order of US$500 million since 2008. Communities and smallholder producers in and around allocated concessions are eager for concessions to proceed, as employers and purchasers as well as funding sources for socioeconomic benefits such as improved roads and schools. Nevertheless, development of the oil palm sector has stalled.
This study compares economic gains and losses from different possible oil palm development paths in Liberia using Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA). The UNDP developed the TSA methodology to help decision makers incorporate the value of ecosystem services into public policy. This methodology involves five principal steps. Read Liberia´s Completed TSA and Policy Brief.
Paraguay - Livestock/high value conservation forest
Livestock plays an important role in the Paraguayan economy. In the last 5 years, livestock has contributed almost 10% of GDP, employed around 300,000 people and meat exports have injected an average of 1,100 million dollars annually (MF Economía, 2020). The Chaco region supports 47% of Paraguayan livestock and in turn is an ecosystem of national, regional and global importance due to its biodiversity and natural forests.
However, the growth of the sector is characterized by horizontal expansion and the change of land use to enable new productive plots. In total, it is estimated that only in the western region of the Chaco pastures went from covering six million hectares in 1991 to more than ten million in 2008 (PNC ONU-REDD + Py / SEAM / INFONA / FAPI, 2016). Since then there has been a continuous growth of the sector. To face these challenges, Paraguay has a set of policies and legal instruments related mainly to environmental aspects, such as Forestry Law 422/73 and Law 294/93 on Environmental Impact Assessment, among others. At the same time, many producers state that these laws are rigid and excessively bureaucratic and that they put the economic and environmental sustainability of the sector at risk. Read Paraguay´s Completed TSA and Policy Brief.
Peru – Cacao/palm oil
The Cacao and the Palm Oil TSA study compares the financial, economic and environmental effects of continuing with current practices in cocoa production and oil palm production, versus the adoption of alternative practices, which can generate higher profitability and at the same time are more environmentally sustainable. The main premise for the definition of alternative practices is to satisfy the demand levels projected to 2030 by reducing the pressure on forest ecosystems. To do this, the study analyzes the effects of increasing productive yields with an adjustment in technological management that allows cultivation on degraded lands. Read Peru´s Completed TSA Cacao (EN) (ES), Completed TSA Palm Oil and Policy Brief for both Cacao and Palm Oil.
Colombia – Livestock
Deforestation in the Amazon region presents great challenges for Colombia. As these valuable forest resources are lost, the connectivity of the landscape, the quality of its natural waters, biodiversity, soil fertility, the sequestration of greenhouse gases (GHG) are lost, among many other ecosystem services that characterize the region. Taking into account the regulatory and land use planning frameworks that are being developed for Colombian livestock and the goals and commitments that the country has proposed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and conserve protected areas, this study focuses on generating economic information to recommend concrete actions towards a more sustainable livestock in the region that converge with the reduction of deforestation in these valuable ecosystems. Read Colombia’s Completed TSA (ES) and Policy Brief (ES).
Thailand – Illegal Wildlife Trade
Wildlife crime is now considered to be at crisis level - driving biodiversity loss and imposing far-reaching impacts on livelihoods, economies and regional security. It is globally the fourth most lucrative type of transnational crime generating illegal revenue estimated at USD 5 billion to USD 23 billion per annum in 2017. Thailand is a source, transit and destination country for many different types of illegally-traded wildlife and wildlife products. Illegal international trades are mostly of exotic species such as rhino horn, elephant ivory and pangolin. This study aims to improve the decision makers’ awareness of the social, economic and environmental economic losses deriving from the IWT to Thailand and globally and the benefits associated with a reductio/elimination in wildlife trafficking. Read Thailand’s Completed TSA and Policy Brief.
Costa Rica – Sustainable pineapple
UNDP’s Kifa Sasa said that “In Costa Rica, the TSA analyzed the benefits of sustainable pineapple production and led to the development, endorsement and implementation of the Pineapple Action Plan through 4 Ministries. The TSA determined that, over the course of 5 years, implementing the Action Plan would cost approximately US$6.5 million while the increase in benefits could be valued at US$15 million”.
Mongolia – Protected areas and multiple sectors
In Mongolia, Dr. Ganzorig Gonchigsumlaa, co-author of a TSA study on protected areas, states “the TSA demonstrated its value as an effective tool for advocating for both immediate and longer-term changes by the Minister of Environment. The study helped to secure the existing funding for protected areas, based on the valuation of the ecosystem services they provide, and enabled the creation of a fund for the long term”.