Dear Achim Steiner, my former boss at UNDP

On behalf of WG2 and my international co-chair Sarah Cook, it is my great pleasure to give you a snapshot of the highlights from our report.

China's development progress over the last four decades has been extraordinary. It was the first of only six countries to move from low to high human development status since 1990.  Past development, however, came at the cost of considerable environmental degradation.

Recognizing these mounting challenges, the Chinese government has made a significant pivot, framed within its vision of Ecological Civilization.

Since its inception in 2007, Ecological Civilisation has steadily permeated China's development planning, culminating in its inclusion in the Party and State Constitutions. This paved the way for further wide-reaching policy reforms and institutional innovations that facilitate and accelerate the transition towards a green and inclusive economy.

Significant results, measured on both economic and environmental indicators, are evident:

• Since 2012, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP fell by more than 35 per cent, amid an average growth of more than 6 per cent, making significant strides towards growth and emissions decoupling.

• Last year’s national average PM2.5 concentration in cities fell to 28.0 micrograms per cubic meter, with critical implications on public health.

Momentum for further progress remains strong, but so do the increasing costs of climate change, and pressures arising from changing domestic and external conditions.

Against the evolving landscape, there are growing signs that the current approach to Ecological Civilization may reach its limits in achieving the intended goals of simultaneously enhancing human and planetary wellbeing. The emerging tensions between economic, social and environmental priorities become particularly significant in light of the multiple systemic transitions China faces all at once, including to an ageing society, along with the impact of frontier technologies such as AI.

Moving forward the question is how China can comprehensively align ecological sustainability, social inclusion and economic opportunity, as well as the policy and institutional shifts needed to translate this integrated vision into practice.

Our key recommendation is that China’s approach to green transition should factor in social elements more systematically, going beyond the strong emphasis on green growth and environmental protection, to accelerate an integrated, people-centered and widely supported trajectory to Ecological Civilisation.

Continued success will hinge on whose voices are heard, what is valued and aligning incentive structures.

Importantly, social considerations should be treated as a catalyst to the success of the green transition, rather than primarily as risks or costs.

Challenges such as demographic shifts, employment dislocation, ill health and inequality are structurally intertwined with environmental issues and must be addressed in tandem.

Integrating governance across sectors and levels will likewise be critical, aligning environmental, industrial, fiscal, social and employment objectives, while managing trade-offs and capturing co-benefits. This in fact points to the need for alternative frames and metrics that recognize the interdependencies between a healthy environment, an inclusive society and economic opportunity.

The report sets out four pathways.

• First, to integrate social concerns as investments necessary to achieve a just transition, addressing both the implication of distribution of the costs and the benefits of the transition.

• Second, to strengthen integrated cross-sectoral planning and coordination across all levels of government administration

• Third, to extend measures of progress beyond GDP with indicators comprehensively capturing wealth, planetary pressures-adjusted human development and wellbeing to strengthen incentives for long-term, inclusive and sustainable development.

• And fourth, in China's international engagement, to balance social, labour and environmental goals alongside domestic and international economic and security interests.

Experimentation around integrated approaches already exists with some early best practices emerging.  

However, tested solutions at scale are hard to come by, in China and globally. The contribution of the report is therefore to ask the right questions and to identify pathways, informing decision makers, as well as CCICED future research

The report explores the nexus between health and planet; the opportunities to harness demographic change driven by China’s aging society in support of the green transition; as well as the pathways to reconcile rising living standards with ecological limits including through greening consumption patterns, and aligning incentives, finance and institutional frameworks with long-term societal goals.

The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan will be a critical window to accelerate the operationalization of the vision of Ecological Civilization setting China on a continued modernization path that is inclusive, carbon neutral, and nature positive.

On behalf of the Working Group 2 co-leads, it has been an honor to have been a part of the High-Level Task Force (on China’s Environmental and Development Outlook). Thank you also for inviting UNDP to be a supporting partner to the Thematic Forum.

We look forward to continuing working closely with the Government of China, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, CCICED and its members, to take forward the insights from the High Level Task Force.

Thank you.