LocationsAuthors: Philip Schellekens (Chief Economist), Linghui Zhu (Data Economist), and Raymond Gasper (Policy Research Specialist) UNDP Bangkok Regional Hub
Is human development progress stagnating in Asia-Pacific? The response in three graphics
May 15, 2025
The latest Human Development Report has arrived, bringing with it a wealth of data and analysis crucial for understanding the state of human development. This year’s report, entitled A matter of choice: People and possibilities in the age of AI, brings troubling news. According to the data presented in the report’s accompanying Human Development Index (HDI), progress has slowed to a 35-year low. Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic years, the meagre rise in global human development projected in this year’s report is the smallest increase since 1990.
What does this mean for Asia and the Pacific? In this post, we distill the report's findings for the region into three telling figures.
But first a note on what the HDI means. The HDI offers a composite measure of progress in three fundamental dimensions: a long and healthy life, knowledge acquisition, and a decent standard of living. Despite persistent disparities, the region has witnessed remarkable progress. From 1990 to 2023, East Asia and the Pacific surged to an HDI of 0.775, and South Asia reached 0.672, both registering gains exceeding 50%.
1. Asia-Pacific's human development through the pandemic has been much slower than ideal, but better than all other regions
Over the four years straddling the pandemic (2019–2023), human development in Asia-Pacific grew by 2.6%—a modest pace, but well above the global average of 1.5% (Figure 1). But recent momentum has stalled. Between 2022 and 2023, the region’s HDI growth matched the global average at just 0.5%. A closer look reveals wide variation within the region: South Asia led the recovery, while the Pacific lagged behind.
Figure 1. HDI actual performance by region and Asia-Pacific subregion
2. The region is still falling short of its development potential, and the gap is widening
Like the rest of the world, Asia-Pacific has yet to close the human development gap opened by the pandemic (Figure 2). While 2022 saw promising signs of recovery, 2023 fell short, further widening the gap relative to where the region was projected to have been without the pandemic. Note that pre-pandemic trends in Asia-Pacific were among the world’s strongest, so comparison with a counterfactual continuation of such trends admittedly sets a high bar.
Figure 2. HDI performance relative to pre-pandemic counterfactual - by region
3. The biggest gaps are in subregions that were once leading the way
The largest human development gaps (relative to counterfactual) are found in Southeast Asia, followed by East Asia, South Asia, and then the Pacific (Figure 3). Paradoxically, the largest counterfactual gaps are in the regions with the highest HDI levels. This reflects both a sharper slowdown and higher pre-pandemic momentum.
- Southeast Asia: A steep decline during the pandemic, partial rebound in 2022, then stagnation in 2023.
- East Asia: Smaller initial dip, but weak post-pandemic growth likely driven by China’s GDP slowdown.
- South Asia: Striking V-shaped recovery after a deep pandemic dip.
- Pacific: Modest performance overall with more limited pandemic disruption and slower long-run HDI progress.
Figure 3. HDI performance relative to pre-pandemic counterfactual - by subregions across Asia-Pacific
What’s next and how AI can influence this trajectory?
The report argues that the future of development depends less on what AI can do, and more on how we choose to use it to reshape our societies and economies. The possibilities are endless—but that also may mean that development pathways are becoming wider, and perhaps less predictable.
AI-augmented development will require three things:
- Building a "complementarity economy", in which people and AI collaborate rather than compete and AI augments rather than subtracts human potential;
- Driving "innovation with intent", by focusing AI on solving real-world development challenges as quoted by the American writer Stewart Brand, "the present day used to be the unimaginable future"; and
- Investing in "capabilities that count", by lifting people's capabilities equitably in areas such as education and healthcare, so all people are empowered to thrive in the age of AI.
Despite the grim overall figures, the report's framing remains positive. It reminds us we have agency. With the right choices, the report says, we can shape a future where technology serves everyone.
But we should also be clear-eyed. AI could just as easily deepen global inequality. Within-country gaps could widen if we don’t prioritize equitable access. More worrying still is the risk—less studied so far—that between-country inequality may rise. If AI’s benefits accrue mostly to faster-moving, wealthier nations while its disruptions hit poorer, less prepared countries harder, the divide may widen to an irreversible degree.
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