This policy paper examines the deeper forces shaping unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) across Africa, moving beyond events to unpack the structural, proximate and trigger factors that drive political crises. Drawing on recent developments in Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau and Benin, the analysis reveals how governance deficits, socio-economic pressures, electoral tensions and security dynamics interact to produce instability.

Grounded in data from the Africa Transition Insights (ATI) platform and aligned with the findings of UNDP’s Soldiers and Citizens report, the publication highlights the critical role of inclusive governance, effective institutions and resilient social contracts in preventing crises. It underscores that political transitions are not only moments of risk, but also opportunities to reset governance and strengthen democratic resilience.

The paper offers actionable recommendations for policymakers and development partners to address root causes, mitigate emerging risks and support credible, inclusive pathways back to constitutional order.