Africa’s critical minerals are in high demand. Cobalt, lithium, graphite and rare earth elements are at the core of global energy transitions and digital transformation. With demand for these resources projected to triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, Africa's position as a major supplier presents a strategic moment for economic transformation. 

Accompanying this immense opportunity is a plethora of geo-economic options presented to African countries. Depending on the policy choices and leadership demonstrated by African governments, these options stand either to unlock potential and accelerate progress or increase the stakes and pose risks. Whether it is the debate about minerals-for-health in Zambia or Kinshasa’s peace-for-mineral deal, Africa is navigating a deepened scramble for the continent’s mineral resources.

More than ever, Africa’s collective leadership is required to make its minerals work for its citizens. However, the critical question is not how much Africa can extract — but how can mineral wealth catalyse broader industrialization and sustainable development.

The dominant discourse often assumes that resource-rich countries should prioritize value addition through mineral processing. This view may overlook fundamental realities. Not all countries possess the technical capacity, infrastructure or economic conditions that make direct processing viable. Africa currently holds only 0.5% of global patents, and manufacturing in sub-Saharan Africa has declined from 15% to 11% of GDP — and only 6% in resource-dependent countries. Only 15% of mineral value is currently retained on the continent.

UNDP's new Regional Programme Document (RPD) for Africa (2026–2029) draws on the continent's asset — including a growing youthful population, digital potential, natural resources and regional institutions — to catalyse transformational change. Building on this vision, UNDP Africa is developing a continental flagship initiative on Africa’s Critical Minerals that addresses the fundamental question: how should African countries make realistic, context-specific decisions about leveraging mineral wealth for economic transformation?

This webinar serves a dual purpose: to present preliminary research findings, and to gather stakeholder insights that will inform the final policy papers and programme development. A cross-cutting focus on data and analytics will explore how digital technologies, AI-driven tools and predictive modelling can improve transparency, traceability and evidence-based decision-making across Africa's critical mineral value chains.

OBJECTIVES

• Present key findings and recommendations from the policy briefs.
• Facilitate dialogue on realistic strategies for the governance and political economy of natural resources.
• Surface practical insights on governance reforms and coordination mechanisms that address real constraints.
• Identify opportunities for data-driven decision-making and regional partnerships.
• Gather stakeholder feedback to strengthen final policy outputs.

Learn more: Avoiding the Asymmetry of Leverage | How Africa's Critical Minerals can Catalyse Development