Under Somalia’s National Reconciliation Framework (NRF) and the National Transformation Plan (NTP), the initiative represents a deliberate move away from fragmented reporting and ad-hoc assessments toward a more systematic, data-driven approach. For Somalia, where conflict dynamics shift rapidly across districts, clans, and livelihood systems, this evolution is critical. Decision makers cannot rely solely on reactive crisis response; they need forward-looking insight that can steer policy, guide mediation, and help allocate scarce resources strategically. The Conflict Navigator fills that gap by providing government institutions, UN agencies and donors with tools to analyse trends, map local disputes, and generate predictive insights that support proactive conflict management.

At its core, the system integrates community-based and participatory conflict mapping, structured analysis, triangulation, and validation within a single national framework. The pilot phase in 2023 marked a major milestone. During this initial rollout, 72 trained inter-ministerial enumerators, 18 mayors in Baidoa, and 14 district commissioners in Mogadishu collaborated to produce Somalia’s first empirically grounded conflict baseline. This was not just a technical exercise, it represented a shared commitment to standardizing how evidence is collected, interpreted, and used for decision-making.

Using a combination of mixed method with key informant interviews, focus group discussions, structured observation, and literature reviews, the team documented 134 conflict incidents across the pilot locations. Strikingly, 73% of these incidents related to land and water disputes. This finding was significant for two reasons. First, it demonstrated the extent to which local conflict in Somalia is shaped by natural resource competition, particularly access to grazing land, strategic water points, or fertile agricultural plots. Second, it highlighted the intensifying climate–conflict nexus: as droughts worsen, rainfall patterns become unpredictable, and displacement increases, the competition over increasingly scarce resources is accelerating tensions among communities. For policymakers, these insights underscore the importance of linking conflict prevention to climate resilience, natural resource management, national security, and environmental governance.

The momentum generated by the pilot has carried forward into national scale-up. More than 120 trained enumerators have now been deployed across all Federal Member States (FMS). Large-scale data collection is currently underway in Southwest State and Puntland, with teams in Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle preparing for deployment. This decentralized model is one of the Conflict Navigator’s greatest strengths. Rather than relying on national-level assumptions or external reports, it ensures that analytical outputs are grounded in local realities, community voices, and context-specific dynamics.

The effects of this approach are already visible. Analysis from the Conflict Navigator will inform the development of District Nexus Action Plans in both Southwest State and Puntland. These plans, for the first time, will use empirical evidence to prioritize mediation efforts, identify geographic hotspots, and propose interventions targeting structural drivers such as resource competition, marginalization of minority clans, youth violence, and climate vulnerability.

Digitizing the Conflict Navigator

Looking ahead, the initiative is entering a new phase characterized by digital transformation. A cloud-based Conflict Navigator platform is currently under design, with a projected launch in early 2026. Once operational, it will consolidate a national, continuously updated and validated database of conflict incidents. It will also generate descriptive, prescriptive, and predictive analytics, drawing on statistical modelling, scenario-building techniques, and geospatial visualizations. The platform will serve multiple actors — humanitarian agencies seeking early-warning signals, development planners designing resilience programmes, peacebuilders prioritizing mediation hotspots, and government institutions coordinating stabilization responses. By aligning methodologies and streamlining information flows, the platform will help reduce duplication, improve interoperability, and strengthen collective action across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace (HDP) nexus.

As the system deepens its outreach, the next phase of the Conflict Navigator focuses on district-level deep dives, which represent a major conceptual and operational advance. By generating granular, localized analysis at the district scale, the initiative will enable the development of District Nexus Action Plans: practical decision-making tools that connect humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding objectives to concrete policy and programmatic interventions. These action plans will help local authorities identify priority conflicts, allocate resources strategically, and sequence interventions in a manner that strengthens the reconciliatory governance architecture Somalia is working to build. In this way, the Conflict Navigator goes far beyond functioning as a mere diagnostic or mapping tool. It is evolving into a decision support system: one designed to guide the state’s efforts to reduce violence, reinforce social cohesion, and align district-level priorities with national peacebuilding and development strategies.

Challenges ahead

The road ahead is not without challenges. Sustaining momentum requires predictable funding, continuous training, and institutional arrangements that preserve knowledge despite frequent staff turnover within ministries. Field data collection in fragile or contested areas poses logistical and security risks, requiring flexible planning and close coordination with local authorities. Ensuring neutrality and community trust is equally essential, as data collection processes must remain shielded from political interference or clan-based biases. Yet, these challenges are not insurmountable. The project’s decentralized structure: anchored in state-level ministries, local administrations, and community actors has already enhanced legitimacy and improved the accuracy of analysis. The more ownership is built at the subnational and district level the more resilient and adaptable the system will become.

Opportunities ahead

There is also growing recognition among policymakers and international partners that the Conflict Navigator offers more than a dataset — it is building a culture of foresight within the government. Enumerators trained in conflict analysis and early-warning methodologies become long-term assets for their institutions. Ministries using structured analytical outputs begin to institutionalize evidence-based policymaking. And communities, seeing their concerns reflected in official reports and reconciliation plans, gain confidence in state-led mediation processes. These shifts, while gradual, contribute to a broader transformation in how Somalia understands and manages conflict.

As Somalia accelerates state-building, prepares for universal suffrage, and navigates climate-induced shocks, the ability to anticipate conflict will become even more vital. The Conflict Navigator is not a silver bullet, but it is a strategic investment in systems that prevent violence rather than merely respond to it. By mid-2026, when the system reaches full national scale and the digital platform matures, it will evolve into a cornerstone of Somalia’s national foresight ecosystem. In doing so, it will provide the analytical backbone needed to strengthen social cohesion, support reconciliation, and sustain long-term peace.

In a landscape where conflict is often seen as cyclical and inevitable, the Somalia Conflict Navigator offers a different vision: one where foresight, evidence, and community voices guide the journey toward a more peaceful and resilient future.

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Amjad Bhatti is Chief Technical Specialist for UNDP’s Statebuilding and Reconciliation Support Programme (SRSP) funded by the Somalia Joint Fund. The article was prepared with input from Abdisalam Farah, Mohamed Ali Farah and Rahmo Hassan from UNDP Somalia