LocationsNavigating Uncertainty: Foresight and the Resilient Pacific
June 29, 2026
UNDP and Public Service Commission of Samoa staff join forces to operationalize Governance for Resilient Futures
26 June 2026
In an increasingly uncertain world, we must be ready for whatever currents may come. But readiness alone is not enough. Like our ancestors who mastered the art of wayfinding across the open Pacific, we must first be clear about where we want to go. And then, once we have set our course, we must learn to read the stars, the swells, and the winds, just as Polynesian navigators did, to guide us there.
This is the essence of UNDP's recent online preparation session on foresight training — a session that drew upon the Polynesian voyaging spirit in a very deliberate way. Co-organised with the Public Service Commission of the Government of Samoa, the training brought together policymakers from Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa, and Tokelau as part of the lead-up to an in-person training scheduled for 14-15 July in Apia, which will in turn precede the Policy Dialogue on Governance for Resilient Futures on 16-17 July.
Foresight as a Pacific Practice
Pacific peoples have always navigated from a position of deep relational knowledge — not by satellite or radar, but by reading the world around them with intimacy and care. Foresight, in this sense, is not a foreign concept imposed from outside. It is a living extension of how Pacific communities have always prepared for change: with humility about what is unknown, and with collective wisdom about what endures.
In a world where polycrisis — the overlapping of multiple disruptions — is becoming the new normal, this kind of anticipatory thinking is not a luxury. It is a necessity. UNDP has supported governments around the world to embed foresight into their policymaking processes, and this series brings that work home to Polynesia.
What We Heard in the Webinar
This second preparation session focused on a particularly important element of foresight practice: mapping and influence. As our facilitator put it, foresight helps us move beyond both fear and uncritical adoption — the two extremes that often greet new ideas. Instead, it creates structured space to ask: what signals are already visible? What futures are possible? And how do we shape the conditions that bring about the futures we want?
UNDP and Public Service Commission of Samoa staff join forces to operationalize Governance for Resilient Futures
Tools like horizon scanning— covering Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values dimensions — allow us to surface early signals of change even before they arrive at our shores. For our small island contexts, where official statistics sometimes miss what communities already know, foresight draws on participatory knowledge: the insights of elders, of youth, of those whose understanding of the place runs deeper than any dataset.
An insight from the session was that foresight does not require abundant data. The real barrier, as one participant observed, is rarely the absence of information — it is the absence of systems and incentives that prioritise long-term adaptive thinking over short-term delivery. Foresight helps surface these gaps and creates space for more robust, agile policymaking, even when data appears sparse.
Participants also reflected on a question that sits at the heart of Governance for Resilient Futures: how can foresight be embedded in government decision-making when policymakers and government officials are stretched? The answer offered was instructive — foresight will only take root if it helps decision-makers navigate the issues they already care about. Rather than creating a separate, standalone foresight function, the goal is to weave anticipatory thinking into existing cycles: budget preparations, national development plan reviews, sector strategies, and monitoring, evaluation and learning processes. This is precisely what this training series is designed to do — building internal capability so that foresight becomes a normal part of how policy is made, not an additional burden.
Building on What Already Exists
One of the most affirming discoveries of the session was that foresight thinking is already present in Pacific policymaking — whether in sector plans, in the Pathways for the Development of Samoa 2026–2031 (PDS2), or in the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Framework. The work ahead is not to replace these foundations but to give them the agile mindset we need: the capacity to anticipate disruption, respond to weak signals, and adapt national plans as conditions shift.
The first session drew on a case study of Samoa's Workforce Plan 2040, exploring how it might be strengthened through a foresight lens. During today’s session, participants heard from voices in the new Ministry of Sport and Recreation. The Public Service Commissioner of Cook Islands offered perspectives that brought the conversation from the abstract to the concrete, and reminded the room that foresight, like all meaningful navigation, is most powerful when it is grounded in lived experience.
The Va’a is Being Prepared
To safely navigate the open seas of our future, we must utilise our va’a — our canoe — as a vessel that carries both inspiration and guidance from our past. The decisions being made now, about what kind of futures we want and what kind of leaders we are becoming, will echo for generations.
We are excited by the lively discussion that has already begun, and we look forward to carrying this momentum into the in-person Foresight Training on 13–14 July in Apia, followed by the Policy Dialogue on Governance and Resilient Futures on 16–17 July.
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