Kabul/New York. Poverty in Afghanistan continues to deepen, with three in four Afghans – around 28 million people – unable to meet their most basic needs in 2025, as modest economic growth fails to keep pace with rapid population growth, declining international aid, worsening climate shocks, and ongoing restrictions on women’s rights, according to a new report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The return of 2.9 million Afghans in 2025 alone is further straining already overstretched services and livelihoods.

This edition of UNDP’s Afghanistan Socioeconomic Review finds that while the share of Afghans living in subsistence insecurity remained unchanged, it is a story of returnees with an estimated 1.4 million additional people affected as more people returned to the country in 2025. Millions of families are facing growing hardships, lacking access to basic needs such as water, food, healthcare, housing, heating, and clothing. More than 80 percent of households are in debt, and nearly three quarters rely on negative coping strategies to manage getting through the day.

“Taking stock of Afghanistan’s socioeconomic reality, this year’s report reveals a country under growing strain, with the high number of returnees and further economic and climatic setbacks intensifying in 2025, as pressures layer one upon another,” said Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. “This underscores why progress on basic human development remains central to stability in Afghanistan and across its borders, especially for the most vulnerable communities living in extremely fragile eco zones.”

The scale of returns is unprecedented, reshaping needs and raising risks. Nearly 5 million Afghans returned between 2023 and 2025, with recent returnees facing extreme vulnerability - 92% subsistence insecurity vs the 74% nationally. In high-return provinces, only 3% have formal jobs and 78% rely on casual day labour.

Afghanistan’s economy recorded modest growth for a second consecutive year, with real GDP growth slowing from 2.3 percent in 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025. However, population growth of 6.5 percent outpaced economic expansion, resulting in an estimated 2.1 percent decline in real GDP per capita, leaving incomes well below 2020 levels. This continued decline in per capita income puts Afghanistan among the poorest countries globally by this measure.

Afghanistan’s trade deficit widened to a record US$11.3 billion in 2025, equal to about 60 percent of nominal GDP, driven by surging imports and stagnant exports. Agriculture was affected by the climate shocks that intensified in 2025. Drought prevalence nearly doubled, affecting 64 percent of the country. Access to adequate drinking water fell 44 percent nationally, down from 59 percent in 2024. 

Restrictions on women’s and girls’ rights continue to shrink Afghanistan’s labour force and undermine the country’s economic potential. Nearly 100 edicts issued since 2021 remain in effect in 2025, limiting women’s employment, education, and freedom of movement. Girls’ school attendance remained at 42 percent, compared to 73 percent for boys.

Total international assistance to Afghanistan declined by 16.5 percent in 2025, even as needs continued to rise. More than 440 clinics had to close or reduce services due to funding cuts, increasing the share of people unable to access healthcare from 16 percent in 2024 to 23 percent in 2025.

“Across Afghanistan, communities need more than short-term relief. They need a pathway to progress,” said Stephen Rodriques, UNDP Resident Representative in Afghanistan. “Investing in jobs, services and local markets will help boost household economies and will be essential to give people a real chance to rebuild their lives and regain control over their future.”. 

Media contacts:

In Kabul: Matthew Duncan: matthew.duncan@undp.org

In New York City: Raul de Mora: raul.de.mora@undp.org