Access to weather information, more specifically, a tailor-made agro-meteorological advisory is crucial, among others, for proper agricultural planning by local communities in the context of climate change and variability. 

UNDP’s ongoing ‘Climate Change Adaptation in the Lowland Ecosystems’ project, financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), has supported this cause across 12 high climate risk districts in Ethiopia. Access to weather forecasts and advisory services was made available to 79,327 (52% female) people across these target districts. 

A timely provision of localized weather information has supported communities in preparing ‘community climate adaptive plans’ across these areas.

In an age of escalating natural and anthropogenic disasters, early warning systems are no longer optional—they are a matter of survival. Across the world, communities are grappling with droughts, floods, and other climate-induced crises. Ethiopia, a country acutely vulnerable to multiple disasters, including extreme weather events, is making strides in developing a robust Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS). But is it enough?

The global urgency is clear. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) has set an ambitious goal: universal access to MHEWS by 2030. More recently, the UN’s ‘Early Warnings for All’ initiative (EW4ALL) (2022–2027) seeks to ensure that every individual on the planet is protected by early warning systems within just a few years.

Africa’s Response to the Crisis
Ethiopia isn’t alone in this fight. The Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System (AMHEWAS), launched in 2022 by the African Union Commission (AUC), underscores a continent-wide push for effective preparedness and risk reduction. Ethiopia, however, stands out for its commitment to building a system tailored to its unique risks and challenges.

Ethiopia’s Gamble: Can Early Warning Systems Outpace the Complex Threats Posed by Disasters?

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Ethiopia’s susceptibility to climate-related and geophysical hazards—droughts, floods, landslides, pest infestations, earthquakes, and volcanic activity—demands an urgent and well-coordinated response. Drought remains the country’s most devastating climate stressor, often exacerbated by El Niño events. Meanwhile, floods affect approximately 250,000 people annually, causing widespread damage to infrastructure and agriculture (UNDRR, 2024).

To tackle this, Ethiopia introduced its Impact-Based Multi-Hazard Early Warning Early Action Systems (IB-MH-EWEAS) Roadmap (2023–2030), aiming to build disaster-resilient communities by 2030. The roadmap prioritizes forecasting hazards and ensuring that warnings translate into early action on the ground.

UNDP’s Role in Bolstering Ethiopia’s Early Warning Infrastructure

Building an effective early warning system is a complex task that requires investment in technology, knowledge, and local capacity. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has been at the forefront of Ethiopia’s efforts, focusing on three key areas:

1. Enhancing Observation, Monitoring, and Forecasting Accurate forecasting begins with data – and the data in the first place, through observation. Mainly financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), UNDP has supported increasing coverage and advancement of Ethiopia’s hydrometeorological observation infrastructure through:

• Installation of over 300 automated weather stations (AWS).

• Rehabilitation of 184 manual meteorological stations.

• Establishment of 60 hydrological telemetry stations.

• Provision of 450 plastic rain gauges.

• Supporting Ethiopia’s compliance with Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) standards - ensuring Ethiopia has 29 surface weather stations and 5 upper-air stations operational under the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) initiative.

2. Towards Actionable Risk Knowledge An early warning system is only as effective as the risk knowledge behind it. UNDP, in partnership with the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) and other actors, has strengthened disaster risk knowledge by:

• Supporting development of over 40 Woreda disaster risk profiles along with preparation of the respective Woreda Disaster Risk Mitigation/Adaptation and Contingency Plans.

• Enhancing distribution of seasonal downscaled weather forecasts to over 60,000 people via digital platforms
  Supporting the establishment of a government-owned, comprehensive, multi-hazard, and localized disaster loss and damage tracking system.

• Financing and coordinating the mapping and assessment of gender-sensitive exposure, vulnerability, risks, causes, and impacts of landslides following the 2024 landslides in Geze Gofa.

• Supporting urban risk profiling and multi-year resilience investment planning for Hawassa City.

3. Building a Culture of Preparedness Early warning should drive early action – and this takes strong institutional and community capacities. UNDP’s efforts towards building preparedness and response capabilities focus on:

• Advancing impact-based forecasting and climate information services tailored for communities

• Promoting community-level climate adaptive management through localized and agile climate action plans

• Strengthening national and local DRM coordination capacities

• Training Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) staff on AWS operation and maintenance

Leaving No One Behind: Embedding Equity in Early Warnings

Disasters do not affect everyone equally. Women, people with disabilities, pastoralists, and youth often face disproportionate impacts and have fewer resources to cope. That’s why UNDP’s approach to early warnings prioritises equity and inclusion. By supporting gender-sensitive disaster risk profiling and promoting participatory community climate action plans, UNDP ensures that the voices of women and marginalised groups shape disaster preparedness.

In 2024, following the deadly landslides in Geze Gofa, UNDP led the first gender-sensitive risk assessment, informing both humanitarian response and long-term landslides planning. 200 women-headed household have been prioritized for livelihood support following the landslide.

Funding the Future of Early Warning in Ethiopia

Scaling up MHEWS requires sustained investment. As a Green Climate Fund (GCF)-accredited entity, UNDP has successfully supported Ethiopia to secure $13 million in GCF funding to expand the country’s early warning capabilities. This is part of a $150 million global multi-country GCF project approved to accelerate the EW4ALL initiative in Ethiopia.

Bringing Early Warnings to the Last Mile

Rural communities—particularly smallholder farmers and pastoralists—are among the most vulnerable to climate shocks. To bridge the gap, UNDP is championing a community-first approach, ensuring that early warnings reach the people who need them most through real-time weather data and locally adapted forecasting tools.

One of the Missing Links: Addressing Geohazard Risks

While Ethiopia has made progress in climate-related early warnings, geohazards—such as landslides and earthquakes—remain a blind spot. The devastating 2024 landslides, which claimed over 300 lives across the country, have underscored the urgent need to advance early warnings for geohazards.

The Road Ahead: Can Ethiopia Lead the Way in Disaster Resilience?

Despite Ethiopia’s progress, embedding early warning systems into everyday disaster management requires consistent effort. UNDP envisions a future where early warnings seamlessly translate into early action, guided by what can be called the ‘5C’s approach’: Conscious, Consistent, Collective, Coherent, and Coordinated action.
 

To achieve this, Ethiopia must:

Expand geohazard assessment and early warning capabilities
Strengthen human and technological capacity at the sub-national level
Improve last-mile communication systems to ensure vulnerable communities receive timely warnings
Foster multi-stakeholder partnerships to sustain MHEWS development

A Call to Action: Investing in MHEWS for Resilience

The cost of inaction is far greater than the cost of preparedness. As Ethiopia moves towards Agenda 2030, the Sendai Framework, Africa MHEWAS, and EW4ALL commitments, its ability to sustain investment in early warning systems will define its resilience in the face of future disasters.

With the right investments, Ethiopia could not only shield its communities from harm but also emerge as a regional leader in climate resilience—a beacon of how early warning can become the difference between catastrophe and resilience.

 *This blog is written by Teketel Daniel, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, UNDP-Ethiopia.  

Read more about UNDP's work to help Ethiopia build its climate resilience and environmental sustainability here.