Responding to the spectre of floods with resilience, knowledge and action

Community-based early warning systems - as part of climate resilient flood risk management - transform life in Bosnia and Herzegovina

May 11, 2026

In Trnovo municipality, just south Bosnia and Herzegovina’s capital city Sarajevo, people learn to read the sky early. They watch the river, the colour of the clouds over the hills, and the speed of snowmelt in late winter. In this mountain municipality, weather has always shaped the rhythm of life. Families plan around it. Farmers live by it. And when it turns, it can take an entire season’s work with it.

The landscape is beautiful, but it is also unforgiving. Quickly-swelling rivers cut through narrow valleys. Winters can be intensely cold. Heavy rain moves swiftly down the slopes into streams and riverbeds, raising water levels before there is sufficient time to prepare. Across Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), climate change is driving more frequent and more intense floods, with rural communities among the most exposed. The Green Climate Fund project, “Scaling up climate resilient flood risk management in Bosnia and Herzegovina” was initiated to respond to the spectre of major flood events, which have accelerated in recent decades. By 2050, more than 900,000 people in the country could be affected by adverse climate impacts.

Yellow excavator on a muddy construction site beside a flooded trench in a forest, with workers. — Flooding in the Vrbas River Basin, BiH.

UNDP in BiH

For people in places like Trnovo, flood risk is not an abstract forecast. The consequences are felt as water flooding basements, severing roads, drowning pastures, engulfing fields, and leaving behind mud, debris and months of financial strain. In municipalities where many households depend on agriculture, livestock and seasonal work, recovery can mean an entire season’s harvest is missed. A bad flood does not end when the water retreats; its effects can linger as lost income, damaged equipment, missed planting windows, and repairs that overextend families’ savings.

The GCF CRFM project was created from the recognition that preventing flood damage has numerous positive downstream effects.

The BiH flood management system is being strengthened through better climate information, improved forecasting, early warning systems, institutional training and long-term flood protection planning. The project aims to reach nearly 800,000 direct beneficiaries and will include community-based early warning systems that will connect local action to the wider forecasting architecture.

Photograph of a weather station with anemometer cups and sensor on a pole in a yard. — Weather station, Municipality of Trnovo.

UNDP in BiH

In Trnovo, the project is most visible in the municipal’s mobile meteorological station, which allows for real-time, hyperlocal meteorological data that can feed into the wider hydrometeorological system and support faster, more accurate alerts. Municipal authorities are now better able to track local conditions, emergency services gain valuable lead time, and residents can receive warnings specific to local conditions.

The GCF CRFM project is built around the principle of decreasing response times and increasing warning intervals. The project not only expands flood forecasting and early warning at the state level, but will also help communities to build the skills, routines and local networks needed to act on warnings once they arrive. This will include training first responders, municipal staff, NGOs, community-based organizations and residents in community-based risk assessment, warning dissemination and community-based early warning systems. It will also include tailored guidelines for specific groups combined with targeted outreach strategies to ensure vulnerable populations are reached more effectively.

The community dimension is particularly salient in places like Trnovo, where geography can work against rapid, coordinated responses. A centralized warning system may issue an alert, but the last mile: who receives the warning, who takes action on it, who knows what to do next, all depend on local capacity.

Mobile meteorological station, Municipality of Trnovo.

UNDP in BiH

Along the Željeznica River, another chapter of the story is taking shape. The river, a tributary of the Bosna, carries ecological value through Trnovo, but also has a history of destructive flooding. In Kijevo settlement, one of the municipality’s vulnerable areas, the GCF CRFM project supported the preparation of preliminary and detailed designs for river regulation, bank stabilization and protective infrastructure along roughly two kilometres of unregulated river section. The work will reduce the future flood risks and will give the municipality a viable path toward long-term protection.

Seen together, these interventions tell a larger story about rural BiH. Climate resilience is often discussed in strategies, technical reports and investment plans. In Trnovo, this means the municipality gains tools it has long needed, warnings are issued longer before the river rises, and local people becoming partners in resilience.

For more information, visit the project profile here.