Follow the Leader? Public Health Messaging and Containment of Mobility During a Pandemic

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Follow the Leader? Public Health Messaging and Containment of Mobility During a Pandemic

February 21, 2022

The effectiveness of widespread policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic hinges upon compliance with ordinances. This study explores how leaders’ discourse relates to compliance with stay-at-home orders to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Mexico. It uses municipality level mobility data from geolocation events of smartphone users and daily briefings from the President and the coronavirus czar.

Quantile regressions, sentiment analysis and topic modelling are used to shed light on the dynamics between political discourse and containment of mobility. Discrepancies were found between the content and tone of the President and those of the coronavirus czar. These contrasts translate into differences in the association between the content of the speeches and mobility patterns.

The discourse’s association to mobility is mediated by awareness of COVID-19-related topics and by individuals’ political affiliation.