Locations
Why this evaluation matters
Reliable, affordable energy is essential for human development, but many communities remain beyond the reach of national grids. UNDP has long supported off grid energy solutions to expand access and improve people’s lives.
This joint evaluation by UNDP’s Independent Evaluation Office and the GEF Evaluation Office will assess UNDP’s contribution to energy access, enabling environment transformation, and energy financing through its off-grid energy support. The findings will provide lessons for future programming in contexts critical for achieving SDG7 (ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all).
What the evaluation will explore
The evaluation will examine how UNDP’s main approaches to off‑grid energy (ranging from community‑level energy systems to national policies and investment initiatives) work together to expand access and development benefits.
It will assess the contribution of UNDP support in two broad areas:
- Enabling households, businesses and services to obtain reliable, affordable energy through mini‑grids and individual systems.
- Strengthening the policy, regulatory and institutional environment to reduce investment risks and support market growth.
The evaluation will assess whether UNDP support is expanding equitable opportunities for women, youth, and marginalized groups. It will also examine how UNDP’s approaches interact with those of other development partners. Additionally, the evaluation will identify contextual factors that enable or constrain results. Ultimately, it will identify lessons relevant for UNDP’s dual aim of promoting energy‑for‑development and increasing investment in off‑grid energy.
Key questions guiding the evaluation
The evaluation will be structured around a set of core questions:
- What UNDP approaches work best to deliver reliable, affordable and sustainable off grid energy, and in which contexts? Who benefits most or least from these efforts, and why?
- Which UNDP approaches have been most effective in catalysing public and private investment in off grid energy, and in which contexts? What role did UNDP’s policy, regulatory and institutional support play?
- What lessons can guide future UNDP support to promote energy-for-development and greater investment in off-grid energy?
Approaches being examined
The evaluation will cover all major UNDP approaches to off grid energy access, including:
- Energy systems and infrastructure: mini grids, individual systems, productive use equipment, and support for SMEs.
- Governance and capacity: policies, regulations, licensing, tariff setting, institutional capacities, and community level governance.
- Investment support: feasibility work, de risking instruments, subsidies, blended finance, pipeline development, and market infrastructure tools.
- Convening and knowledge: multi stakeholder engagement and evidence generation.
How the evaluation will be carried out
The evaluation will use a theory based, mixed methods approach, combining:
- Impact assessment of energy access, development benefits, enabling environment, and investment outcomes
- Community surveys using the Multi Tier Framework
- Site visits to energy systems and connected services
- GIS data to assess contextual and development indicators
- Focus groups and interviews with users, women’s groups, developers, investors, and government actors
- Realist interviews to understand how investors respond to UNDP de risking support
- Desk reviews of programme documentation, baselines, evaluations, and global evidence
Where the evaluation will focus
Primary data collection will take place in selected African countries, reflecting the region’s central role in global energy access challenges and the concentration of UNDP programming.
The evaluation will select from UNDP support implemented between 2012-2025, a period in which the technical viability of renewable and off-grid energy increased, and UNDP placed greater emphasis on its potential for development. Countries with longer, more consistent programming will be purposefully sampled to allow for the time required to establish sustainable energy options in low-income countries.
Each selected country will include all relevant UNDP off grid approaches, regardless of programme or funding stream, and will consider differences across population groups, including gender, age, socioeconomic position, disability, and geographic location.
What happens next
The evaluation will be carried out in 2026 and presented to the UNDP Executive Board in June 2027 and the GEF Council in 2027/28.
Along the way, the IEO will engage UNDP colleagues and partners to ensure the evaluation supports learning and reflection, alongside accountability.
Updates, publications and related materials will be shared here as the evaluation progresses.
