LocationsThe Next Great Divergence
Why AI may widen inequality between countries
Artificial Intelligence has reached 1.2 billion users in only 3 years, with nearly 70% of them in developing countries. In some high-income economies 2 in 3 people already use AI tools, while in many low-income countries usage remains close to 5%. A new flagship report from UNDP warns that unequal readiness and uneven adoption of AI could set in motion a “Next Great Divergence” in the form of rising inequality between countries.
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What is the Next Great Divergence?
AI can lift growth, expand opportunities, improve public services, and strengthen resilience. The same technologies, however, can accelerate exclusion, undermine governance, and raise human insecurity. Countries with strong connectivity, skills, compute, and regulation are poised to capture a larger share of the AI dividend. Others will face higher vulnerability to job disruption, data exclusion, misinformation, and the indirect effects of rising energy and water needs.
This combination of slower adoption and higher vulnerability shapes what the report calls the Next Great Divergence, a potential period of rising inequality between countries. Decisions taken in the coming years will influence whether AI narrows or widens development gaps for the next generation.
People
AI can improve health diagnostics, personalise learning, strengthen food systems, and support financial inclusion. Bhutan is piloting AI tutors in schools, Mongolia’s AI-driven credit scoring has delivered more than 70 million dollars in micro-loans to nearly 4,000 businesses, and digital tools in Viet Nam reach about 39 million farmers with real-time data and traceability. Flood-forecasting systems in northeast India have doubled prediction accuracy and extend warning times.
These gains emerge in a context where about 1.6 billion people in Asia-Pacific cannot afford a healthy diet and 27 million youth remain illiterate. Women in South Asia are up to 40% less likely than men to own a smartphone, and rural and minority groups often remain invisible in the data that train AI systems.
Economy
Once scaled, AI could lift annual GDP growth by around 2 percentage points and raise productivity by up to 5% in sectors such as finance and healthcare. ASEAN alone could gain close to 1 trillion dollars in additional GDP over the next decade. At the same time, labor markets face significant disruption, with 75% of surveyed firms expecting job losses alongside new roles. Female employment is nearly twice as exposed to AI as male employment, and informality remains high, including an estimated 88% of jobs in India and close to 60% in Indonesia.
Governance
AI can speed up service delivery, improve planning, and strengthen responses to climate and disaster risks. Bangkok’s Traffy Fondue platform has handled nearly 600,000 citizen reports, while Singapore’s Moments of Life has cut paperwork for new parents from about 120 minutes to 15 minutes. Digital twins in Beijing are used to model floods and urban growth in real time.
However, safeguards have not kept pace. Only a limited number of countries have comprehensive AI regulation, many systems operate as opaque black boxes, and by 2027 more than 40% of global AI-related data breaches may stem from misuse of generative AI.
Key messages
- AI offers transformative potential, but without inclusive foundations it is likely to deepen divides between countries.
- Countries’ starting points in skills, connectivity, compute, and regulation shape who captures value and who faces risks.
- Asia-Pacific contains multiple realities, with fast adopters and countries still at the starting line, illustrating how AI can widen gaps within and between nations.
- Divergence is not inevitable. With investment in people, responsible governance, and inclusive digital infrastructure, countries can turn fragmentation into shared progress.
UNDP’s call to action
UNDP urges governments, partners, and the private sector to act now, strengthen connectivity, skills, and safeguards, invest in sustainable compute, and build inclusive AI strategies tailored to national capacity. Regional and global cooperation on standards, safety, and open models will be essential so that AI functions as a shared public good rather than a concentrated advantage.
