LocationsWhy Afghanistan’s Development Strategy Will Miss its Aspirations?
Perspectives from the Economists
January 30, 2026
Asia and pacific
For the first time since assuming de facto control in August 2021, the Taliban authorities have introduced a grand development strategy, the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS, 2025-2030). Despite arriving late, the ANDS fills a longstanding vacuum in the country’s development vision. It now provides de facto line ministries across the economic and social sectors with a guiding framework to allocate constrained domestic resources, amid zero external grants, towards development priorities and goals for the next five years. The ANDS establishes planning, execution, and reporting structures to guide effective implementation.
Production, diversification, regional connectivity, and inclusive human development. With ANDS, the country targets annual export growth of 10% while limiting import growth to 5%, in a bid to narrow the trade deficit, which is now equivalent to 58% of GDP. The Strategy also prioritizes attracting at least $5 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2030 (or 29.4% of nominal GDP), primarily in infrastructure, energy, and extractives. Overall, the de-facto authorities aspire to see a broad-based economic expansion of between 3% and 5% annually.
A multi-pronged growth model underpins the ANDS. It seeks to leverage Afghanistan’s strengths, including its vast natural resources, large youth population, and opportunities for domestic Oversight and coordination mechanisms are also outlined in the Strategy. The Office of the de facto Prime Minister or the de facto Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs provide high-level supervision, including addressing implementation bottlenecks at national and subnational levels. The de facto Ministry of Finance is responsible for inter-ministerial coordination. Meanwhile, UN agencies, international organizations, and IFIs with active portfolios are expected to align ltheir programmes with the sectoral priorities identified in ANDS.
Afghanistan faces overlapping crises, from the lack of international recognition of the de facto government and the alarming humanitarian situation to influx of returnees from neighboring countries and acute climatic adversities. These pressures constrain development progress.
Two constraints, however, are especially urgent which could greatly impede the ANDS from delivering its promises over the next five years: severe gender restrictions and acute energy insecurity.
Bans on Women’s Rights.
Since 2021, Afghanistan has experienced a crippling rollback in women’s rights. Girls are barred from secondary and higher education, and women are restricted from public sector employment, mobility without an accompanying male relative, and, most recently, from working with the UN, international organizations, IFIs, and their implementing partners.
These restrictions have curtailed female labor force participation. Employment among female household members plummeted to 7% in 2024, down from 12% in 2022, compared with 84% for men, up from 75% in 2022. Unless the restrictions on women’s contributions to economic activity and human development efforts are entirely abrogated, the country’s growth ambition and prospects for shared prosperity cannot be realized. The de facto authorities have so far been strictly inflexible with respect to reversing their restrictive policies on women’s rights despite persistent international pressures and domestic condemnation.
Photo: UNDP Afghanistan
Energy Deficit.
Afghanistan requires about 5 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, yet current supply stands at only 0.7 GW. Domestic generation covers about 15% of national consumption, necessitating the country to import over 6 million megawatt hours of electricity at a cost of approximately $250 million per year, which is equivalent to 13% of export earnings. This massive electricity deficit renders unattainable aspirations for industrialization, increased domestic production, export expansion, and broader economic diversification, cornerstones of ANDS. The country’s estimated potential for renewable energy generation of 312 Gigawatts, which is 62.4 times more than domestic demand, could position Afghanistan as a major future electricity exporter in the region. Realizing this potential, however, will require long-term stability, strategic investment, and, most importantly, a visionary leadership capable of delivering promises.
Photo: UNDP Afghanistan
Unless the de facto authorities reverse restrictions on women and efficiently channel domestic and foreign investment toward closing the energy gap, the ANDS will likely remain aspirational rather than transformative.