Syria's private sector has been decimated by fourteen years of conflict: private manufacturing output has contracted from SYP 428.4 billion in 2010 to SYP 261 billion in 2024, while the private service sector has shrunk to roughly one-third of its pre-conflict size. Yet the political transition of December 2024 has opened new opportunities to revive local economies and rebuild long-term resilience. This report argues that value chain development offers a critical pathway to that recovery.

Drawing on a combination of secondary data, literature review, and primary fieldwork, the report applies a set of selection criteria tailored to the Syrian context; economic feasibility, job creation potential, added value, reduced external dependency, cross-regional relevance, and feasibility under current conditions, to identify priority sectors for in-depth analysis. Three value chains emerge as strategic priorities: canned food, dairy products, and leather products. These sectors were selected for their reliance on local raw materials and existing skills bases, strong domestic demand, and export potential, positioning them as realistic near-term levers for economic recovery. For each sector, the report maps current dynamics across the full value chain, identifies key challenges, and outlines practical recommendations for revitalization. 

The report frames value chain revival not merely as a livelihoods intervention but as a stabilization strategy: reclaiming domestic markets from imports, generating fiscal returns, strengthening the Syrian pound, and reducing structural import dependency. Strengthening agri-food and leather value chains, the analysis concludes, is central to Syria's broader prospects for economic stabilization and social recovery.

This report was produced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Syria in partnership with the LSE Conflict and Civicness Research Group, and supported by the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform (PeaceRep), funded by UK International Development from the UK government.