Chapter 4 - Introduction | United Nations Development Programme

The Programme and Risk Management section of the Country Programme Document (CPD) is critical for ensuring the success of UNDP’s interventions. This section requires country offices to identify potential risks, both internal and external, that could hinder the achievement of development results. It also emphasizes the need for robust risk management mechanisms to address these challenges while enhancing the programme’s resilience and effectiveness.

Foresight tools like anti-vision with backcasting and windtunneling with pre-developed scenarios directly support this section by providing structured methodologies to identify, classify, and address risks in a future-oriented manner. By integrating these tools, teams can ensure that their risk management plans are not only grounded in the present but also responsive to emerging uncertainties.

The importance for the CPD

By linking foresight tools to the CPD, country offices can strengthen their risk management strategies and demonstrate a commitment to adaptive, future-informed programming. The structured insights generated from these exercises will directly feed into the CPD, ensuring that risks are clearly articulated and robust mitigation plans are in place.

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Two options

This toolkit offers two foresight-driven methods for identifying risks: anti-visioning and wind tunneling with scenarios.

Each method allows teams to explore vulnerabilities in programme design, but its applicability depends on the team's resources and context. Both approaches aim to equip teams with actionable insights to mitigate risks while ensuring that programmes are robust enough to adapt to unforeseen challenges.

Teams can choose the method that best suits their context and resources. In some cases, combining both methods may provide a more comprehensive understanding of risks, with antivisioning focusing on internal vulnerabilities and wind tunneling addressing external uncertainties.