LocationsSignals of Transformation for Brazil
Foresight Through Signals
February 10, 2026
Foresight through Signals
Signals of Transformation for Brazil
The Context
Inspired by UNDP’s 2024 Signals Spotlight, in January 2024, the Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services (MGI) for the Federal Government of Brazil approached the UNDP Strategy and Futures Team to support the creation of a Brazilian version of the Signals Spotlight. MGI was also interested in developing robust institutional foresight capability to make the government and civil service more anticipatory, proactive, and resilient.
This initiative with the United Nations is part of a learning process...we have an expectation that this can reverberate and bring the country a bit into reflection, to think, to propose things related to the future. Sometimes we have the feeling we’re in a time loop, like that day that repeats with variations, and we think, “no, it’s important for us to start building the future right now.Francisco Gaetani , Extraordinary Secretary for State Transformation
The Process
The UNDP Strategy and Futures Team started by training over 50 stakeholders in the Brazilian government and its key partners in the fundamentals of foresight, following the Next Gen Foresight Framework developed by UNDP in conjunction with the University of Houston. Thereafter a core project team of 9 people from UNDP’s Strategy and Futures Team, the UNDP Brazil Country Office and MGI followed a 10 month, 6-step process, involving Framing, Scanning, Sense-making, Writing, Production and Communication, to produce the Futures of Brazil: Signals of Transformation, launched in January 2026.
The initial Framing step of the project focused on the future of Brazil 5 to 10 years ahead, identifying 16 themes critical to the future governance of Brazil. To give the process additional structure, the themes were grouped into three clusters: Hope for Fair Futures, Courage for Responsible Futures and Agency for Adaptable Futures.
Once the themes and clusters were agreed by the core stakeholders, the Scanning phase of the project involved extensive desktop research and intensive interviews with thematic experts to identify the most important “TIPPOs” (Trends, Issues, Plans, Projections and Obstacles) inherent in Brazil. Two surveys, one sent to the general public, the other to a curated policy and domain expert list, gathered further and wider insight into Brazil’s most pressing challenges and opportunities. The research was supplemented with a Signals Sprint, drawing on UNDP’s 500+ strong Signal Scanner network and its Future Trends and Signals Scanning System, and a series of Signals Studios to identity and analyse hundreds of signals of change that could affect Brazil’s future.
<em>The Spotlight team surveyed 500+ Brazilians about their attitudes toward the future of their country.</em>
I thought the most valuable part of this process was the collective sensemaking. Working side by side with different experts to interpret signals, question assumptions, and shape plausible futures created a shared understanding that enriched the entire Spotlight.Mayra Almeida, Senior Project Manager, UNDP Brazil
After the Scanning phase had defined the landscape, the Sense Making phase focused on stakeholder engagement and community inclusion. To this end, 8 workshops were held with stakeholders representing youths, public and private sector institutions, community and religious leaders, regional interests and academia. Their purpose was to uncover citizens’ hopes, fears and frustrations about the present and future, and to illuminate possible policy priorities and strategic options for meeting those needs.
The Sense Making phase concluded with a Scenario workshop, which explored four different possible futures for Brazil, each grounded in the metaphor of a future Brazilian lunch
<em>The Signals of Transformation serves up four scenarios to help Brazilians think about what the future of the country might look like, through the lens of a Brazilian lunch.</em>
The concept of a “future lunch” grounds abstract futures in everyday reality. This question of what will be on our plates in 10 years? Who will cultivate these foods? Do we have enough to eat? This becomes a relevant future for all citizens. It is provocation as a tool. The objective of imaginary futures is to provoke a discussion that current political polarization often stifles. By imagining different scenarios, we break the cognitive blockage that makes us believe the future is already written and inevitable.Cláudio Providas, UNDP Resident Representative in Brazil
After the Sense Making phase, the lead writer consolidated the preceding 6 months’ learnings into a draft, including not just analysis, but also strategic questions for policy makers and citizens to consider acting on as they co-create their futures. The draft was then refined through several rounds of peer reviews and feedback from Brazilian partners.
Outcomes and impacts
The Signals of Transformation publication is intended to inspire Brazilians about the positive possibilities for their shared future, to instill agency and a collective commitment towards productive change - and to highlight how foresight process and practice can support these goals.
The Signals of Transformation spotlight proposes an important conceptual shift, which is to think of the future as a function of the State. The future – and it’s important to repeat – is not trying to guess what happens, it’s not escaping the present, it’s not doing futurology, it’s not speculation. We have to think of the future as a legitimate function. A necessary function of the State, and even more, as an imperative of the State.Andrea Bolzon, Program Specialist of the Governance and Justice for Development Unit of UNDP Brazil
To date, the Signals of Transformation has sparked interest among its Brazilian partners in the value of foresight and of collective efforts to imagine the future. However, the true test of its worth will be revealed only in the future, when we see what actions and changes the Signals of Transformation inspires.
Learnings and advice
- Creating a Spotlight (or other futures report) is not the outcome, but rather, an impetus to policy and collective action. Instead of thinking of the Spotlight as a report to be read and filed away, its value lies in igniting a new, dynamic process that invites more and better questions -- a tool that can facilitate strategic decision-making. To this end, a toolkit for civic engagement and an interactive game, were developed for communities and policy makers to explore the signals, scenarios and strategic questions illuminated in the spotlight.
- Meet people “where they’re at” in sharing their thoughts about the future. The process of developing the Signals of Transformation involved creating spaces, both in-person and online, where people could share their thoughts about the future of their country. Some people preferred to share ideas in a workshop setting, while others would rather speak one-on-one, respond to a survey, or draft an essay to express their thoughts. The use of a game or brain-storming exercises elicited other responses. Having people share personal stories made the exercise of gathering insights tangible, real and thought-provoking.
- When facilitating workshops, be flexible. What worked for one workshop may not work for the next. It is important to be able to quickly adapt to an exercise for each group and not be too precious with what was planned.
- Including diverse voices is an active exercise. It is important to not only invite people from diverse backgrounds and experiences to the conversation, but to make the spaces safe and comfortable for them to share.
- Go wide and deep. The Signals of Transformation relies upon more than 500 vetted signals, 14 expert interviews, the participation of dozens of people in eight workshops, and dozens of responses to surveys. Every signal or thought was valuable, offering different perspectives that, when combined, allowed the team to start seeing patterns that hint at possible futures for Brazil. However, the real value of the Spotlight is not just the curation of the signals, but how the signals are connected to tell a bigger story for the future.
I observed how powerful it is to bring together diverse perspectives – from government partners, UNDP teams and local actors – to interpret signals of change collaboratively. The iterative nature of the process also revealed how each round of discussion added new layers of insight and strengthened the final narrative.Mayra Almeida, Senior Project Manager, UNDP Brazil
Next steps
The development of the Signals of Transformation spotlight represents the first step in developing a lasting and resilient foresight capability in the Brazilian government and civil service, helping to anticipate change and take steps to navigate it. Following the Spotlight’s launch, UNDP will be supporting MGI to:
- Develop a second Signals Spotlight in 2026, produced by the government of Brazil
- Build a signals scanning capability and community within the government and with key partner institutions
- Continue to develop foresight capability within all levels of government and the civil service through further trainings and tools