In this step, outcomes of the prioritized drivers are assessed based on impact and certainty to determine their relevance for further exploration. Both high-impact, high-uncertainty outcomes and high-impact, high-certainty outcomes must be prioritized because they contribute to different dimensions of planning:

High-Impact, High-Uncertainty Outcomes: These outcomes are less predictable but could cause significant disruption or transformation. Exploring their implications helps identify potential challenges that may arise under different future conditions.

High-Impact, High-Certainty Outcomes: These outcomes are predictable and likely to occur. Understanding these helps frame specific and relatively certain development challenges that UNDP must prepare to address proactively.

To prioritize effectively, teams must assess outcomes based on Impact and Certainty. Each parameter has its own nuances, and understanding these will help teams navigate this step with clarity and purpose. 

Here's how to define and evaluate Impact & Uncertainty of driver outcomes:

    Defining Impact

    ‘Impact’ refers to the significance or magnitude of an outcome’s effect on the development landscape. An outcome with high impact is one that could create widespread, long-lasting change—whether positive or negative.

    To determine the impact of a driver outcome, teams should assess its potential to:

    • Affect large populations or critical systems.
    • Trigger cascading changes in other areas (e.g., political, economic, social, environmental, or technological systems).
    • Challenge or reinforce existing development priorities.
    • Introduce new opportunities or vulnerabilities that may not be part of current strategies.

    Prompting Questions to Determine Impact:

    • Who or what will be affected by this outcome? For example, If rural-to-urban migration accelerates, will it primarily impact urban infrastructure, public services, or marginalized communities?
    • How widespread could the effects of this outcome be? Will it affect only urban centers, or will it ripple out to rural areas through reduced labor supply or changes in agricultural productivity?
    • Will the outcome create systemic change? For example, Could rapid urbanization lead to long-term socioeconomic shifts, such as smaller families, a larger burden on income earners or women, etc.?

    Key Tip

    Focus on the breadth and depth of the outcome’s impact. Outcomes that could influence multiple sectors, affect large groups of people, or lead to far-reaching systemic changes should be rated as high impact.

     

     

    Defining Uncertainty

    Certainty is not about predicting the likelihood of an outcome occurring—as you know already, no one has a crystal ball. Instead, certainty is about the degree of agreement among team members regarding the plausibility of the outcome. If there is significant disagreement, this indicates high uncertainty.

    Prompting Questions for Certainty

    • Is there consensus among the team about this outcome being plausible?
    • What data or evidence supports this outcome? Are there trends or signals pointing to this outcome, or is it largely speculative?
    • What factors contribute to uncertainty about this outcome?
    • What assumptions underlie this outcome, and are they contested.

    Outcomes with high certainty are those that:

    • Align closely with current data or trends.
    • Are seen as plausible and uncontroversial by most team members.
    • Have been observed in similar contexts or are well-documented in research.

    In contrast, outcomes with low certainty:

    • Are characterized by disagreement or debate among team members.
    • Reflect situations where data is ambiguous or trends are highly volatile.
    • Are influenced by complex or poorly understood dynamics.

    Key Tip: 

    Treat disagreement within the team as a sign of high uncertainty. If some members strongly believe an outcome is plausible while others are skeptical, this indicates that the outcome’s uncertainty is high and warrants closer attention.

     

    By carefully assessing impact and certainty, teams can prioritize outcomes to balance foresight and practicality, ensuring that critical challenges are neither overlooked nor underestimated. This framework helps ensure that planning efforts are comprehensive, proactive, and adaptive to future uncertainties.

    The 2X2 Impact-Certainty matrix

    Once impact and certainty are assessed for each outcome, teams can place outcomes into the following categories to guide prioritization.

    The two main categories of interest that we will take to the next step:

    High—impact, High—Certainty Outcomes represent the outcomes that we expect in the future and that we need to plan for. The development challenges that arise out of these outcomes would be the ones we we would have likely identified with or without foresight exercises and we would have plenty of data to support them.

    High-Uncertainty Outcomes These are the outcomes that would have emerged due to the analysis we have done in the previous steps. These outcomes may not have strong data to support it but they have a few signals of change that offer qualitative evidence regarding the possibility of occuring. The developmental challenges that emerge from these outcomes, when incorporated into the planning process, will enable teams to be better prepared for ‘surprises’.

     

    Move onto Step 3: Identifying Implications