Introduction to the Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a foresight tool designed to map the cascading implications of a specific event, trend, or driver outcome. Developed by Jerome Glenn, it helps teams visualize the ripple effects that might emerge from a driver outcome, revealing both direct and indirect consequences.

By organizing these implications into concentric layers, the Futures Wheel provides a structured way to think about the broader impacts of change.

In this step, the Futures Wheel will be applied to the prioritized driver outcomes identified earlier.

Each prioritized outcome will serve as the central focus, and the team will collaboratively explore its implications. The goal is to generate a comprehensive understanding of how the outcome might shape the development context, ultimately helping the team identify potential development challenges.

The Futures Wheel is an essential step in foresight, helping teams systematically explore the
broader impacts of prioritized outcomes.

Mapping implications visually and collaboratively ensures that all dimensions of a driver outcome are considered, leading to richer insights and more robust development challenge identification. This structured process not only uncovers risks but also highlights opportunities, enabling teams to build proactive and future-ready strategies.

How to use a Futures Wheel in a workshop

 

 

 

Mind map diagram with teal and green circles connected to a central node.

 

 

Example of a Futures wheel

Below is a slightly edited version of a Futures Wheel created in a ‘Strategy Check-In’ session conducted by the UNDP Strategy and Futures Team for a high-impact, low-certainty possibility.

 

In the carousel below, we have highlighted some important features of using the Futures Wheel. Click through to see them all.

Pastel circular spiral infographic with bubble notes radiating around a central quote.
Colorful mind-map with sticky-note blocks around a central dark box and pink edge circles.

Tips and Tricks for Using the Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a versatile tool enabling teams to systematically map the cascading implications of prioritized driver outcomes. Here are some important tips and tricks to maximize its effectiveness:

    Tip 1

    Assume Each Implication Happens and Build Forward

    Begin by assuming the first implication is true, then ask: “What happens as a direct result of this?” This mindset ensures the exercise builds logically from one layer of implications to the next. For example, the Driver Outcome: Urban migration accelerates would lead to > 1st Order

    Implication: Overcrowding in housing, which would lead to > 2nd Order Implication: Growth of informal settlements, which, in turn, would lead to > 3rd Order Implication: Increased inequality and health crises.

    Tip 2

    Think of both Positive and Negative Implications

    Aim to identify at least one positive implication and one negative implication for every layer. This balance prevents participants from focusing solely on risks or benefits and ensures a nuanced view.

    For example, a positive third-order implication could be that informal settlements might create vibrant, self-sufficient communities with innovative micro-economies. A negative Implication could be that these settlements might exacerbate social exclusion and strain public resources.

    Tip 3

    Be Specific and Concrete

    Use precise language when articulating implications. Avoid vague terms like “affects”, “changes”, or “impacts.” Abstract or general implications will trigger even more abstract & general implications, resulting in a fuzzy, indistinct final product lacking clear insights. Instead, specify what changes, how, and for whom.

    For example, a vague implication would be, "Overcrowding affects education”. Instead, a better, more specific implication would be “Overcrowding in informal settlements reduces school attendance rates due to long travel distances and lack of resources”.

    Tip 4

    Repetition and Contradictions are Okay

    Repetition: If the same implication arises from multiple outcomes, this could indicate a systemic challenge that warrants extra attention. This is good and it means you might ne narrowing in on a development challenge. 

    Contradictions: Conflicting implications can coexist, highlighting areas of uncertainty or potential tipping points.

    For example, you might have one first-order implication as “Urban migration reduces rural labor
    supply,” while another first-order implication could be “Rural innovation attracts reverse migration.”
    Both implications could be useful to consider when looking at the development challenges and
    opportunities of the future.

     

    Clustering Implications

    After completing the Futures Wheel, document all implications. Using a participatory process, group similar or related implications into clusters or thematic groups. When clustering, it is usually a good idea to work with second—or third-order implications. Identify patterns, overlaps, or recurring themes to uncover potential development challenges.

    For the Rural-Urban Migration example, some clusters that could emerge are Urban Resilience: Challenges related to infrastructure, service delivery, and environmental sustainability or Social Equity: Risks of exclusion, marginalization, and inequality.

     

    Move onto Step 4: Defining Development Challenges