Identifying Development Challenges

One of the central tenets of foresight is that the future is not fixed; it is shaped by a range of forces, many of which are uncertain or unpredictable.

Through foresight techniques, we try to structurally imagine the possible, anticipate the unpredictable, and reduce the element of surprise.

The process of identifying development challenges is a critical step in the foresight journey. It builds on insights from identifying drivers of change and imagining possible futures, enabling teams to articulate the key challenges that will shape the development landscape over time. This step, while intellectually demanding, is one of the most important phases of the process because it provides the foundation for actionable strategies, policies, and programming. It requires teams to think beyond current issues, leveraging a forward-looking perspective to anticipate and prepare for challenges that might emerge in the years to come.

Traditional planning processes often focus on current challenges or use forecasting based on historical data to predict future needs. While valuable, these methods are inherently limited—they tend to assume that the future will unfold as an extension of the past. This can lead to a narrow understanding of the challenges ahead, leaving teams unprepared for disruptions or emerging trends.

By engaging in this process, teams develop a future-resilient mindset, which is crucial for navigating uncertainty and ensuring that development strategies remain relevant and impactful in a changing world.

Why should you think about multiple futures when identifying future development challenges?

Identifying Development Challenges

Once the prioritized drivers of change have been identified, the next step is to use them to uncover potential development challenges that may emerge in the future. Depending on the team’s resources, expertise, and comfort level with creative thinking, this can be approached in two ways.

Option 1: Analytical Approach— Driver Outcomes & Futures Wheel

This approach is suitable for teams with limited time, resources, or expertise in scenario building. It directly leverages the prioritized drivers to explore their potential implications and identify challenges.

Choose Option 1 if:

You have limited time, prefer a structured and direct approach, and need actionable outputs without delving into complex storytelling.

Pros of this option:

1. Time-Efficient: This approach requires fewer steps and can be completed in a shorter timeframe, making it ideal for teams withlimited resources or tight deadlines.
2. Accessible for All Team Members: It does not require story-telling or qualitative creativity, making it more comfortable for participants who are less experienced with foresight.

The trade-offs you will make in this approach:

1. Lack of Systems Perspective: This approach may miss the complex dynamic relationships between drivers, which often emerge in narrative-based methods.
2. Less Engaging for Stakeholders: The lack of storytelling or creative narratives may make it harder to engage stakeholders who prefer visual or imaginative outputs.

Option 2: Creative Approach— Scenario Development

This approach focuses on developing scenarios to explore how drivers of change might shape the future. It allows teams to create narratives that can inform strategic planning with depth and imagination.

Choose Option 2 if:

You value the ability to engage stakeholders through rich narratives and have the time & resources to examine the interplay of drivers and uncertainties fully. 

Pros of this option:

1. Systems Thinking Lens: By developing scenarios, this approach brings out the complex interdependencies between drivers, providing a holistic view of possible futures.
2. Rich Insights: Storytelling and scenario development often uncover hidden risks and opportunities that may not emerge through analytical methods. 

The trade-offs you will make in this approach:

1. Requires Creativity and Facilitation. Expertise: This approach may be challenging for teams unfamiliar with qualitative methods or lacking facilitation experience.
2. Potential Stakeholder Resistance: Highly technical stakeholders may find storytelling less credible or rigorous compared to more data-driven methods. 

Identifying Development Challenges: The two options at-a-glance

Option 1: Analytical Approach— Driver Outcomes & Futures Wheel

Option 2: Creative Approach— Scenario Development