Identifying Development Challenges: Option 1

If you’ve decided on Option 1, you will follow a three-step process that will lead to a ‘long list’ of development challenges that could potentially emerge in the future based on the signals of change you’ve collected in your horizon scanning and the drivers of change you’ve developed from them.

Identify & Prioritize Driver Outcomes

The first step is to explore the different ways a driver might manifest in the future and prioritize those that are most critical for further analysis. Drivers of change are dynamic forces, and their evolution can lead to a variety of ou comes depending on contextual factors, societal choices, and external disruptions. This step helps the team artic late these possible outcomes and focus on the ones with the most potential impact.

During this step, it is crucial to avoid self-censorship and think freely, even about outcomes that might seem likely or unconventional. This is a common pitfall in foresight exercises—teams may focus only on “realistic” scenarios or those that align with current trends, inadvertently reinforcing internal blind spots. Encourage the team to consider “wild card” possibilities or surprising outcomes, as these can reveal biases and help uncover hidden vulnerabilities or opportunities.

For example:

• A team focused on urban migration might overlook the possibility of reverse migration to rural areas due to unexpected breakthroughs in rural development technologies or policies.
• A driver like “emerging technologies in governance” could yield an unexpected outcome , such as AI-driven decentralization, which could completely reshape political systems. 

Thinking beyond what seems immediately likely ensures a broader exploration of possibilities and prepares the team for a wider range of futures. This openness can help mitigate bias and bring previously overlooked but important dynamics into the conversation.

Thinking Through Driver Outcomes

To explore driver outcomes, consider asking the following questions for every driver:

• What happens if this driver evolves exactly as we expect?
• What happens if this driver evolves in the opposite way than we expect?
• What other directions might this driver take?

 

 

This step may be the most challenging for many team members. However, avoiding self-censorship is critical to achieving the true value of this exercise.

In the next step, each of these outcomes will be evaluated to determine whether it truly represents a risk to development and whether any of them should be dismissed.

Prioritizing & Categorizing High-impact Driver Outcomes Select High-Impact Outcomes

In this step, outcomes of the prioritized drivers are assessed based on impact and certainty to determine their relevance for further exploration. Both high-impact, high-uncertainty outcomes and high-impact, high-certainty outcomes must be prioritized because they contribute to different dimensions of planning:

High-Impact, High-Uncertainty Outcomes: These outcomes are less predictable but could cause significant disruption or transformation. Exploring their implications helps identify potential challenges that may arise under different future conditions.

High-Impact, High-Certainty Outcomes: These outcomes are predictable and likely to occur. Understanding these helps frame specific and relatively certain development challenges that UNDP must prepare to address proactively.

How to Prioritize Driver Outcomes: Impact X Uncertainty

To prioritize effectively, teams must assess outcomes based on Impact and Certainty. Each parameter has its own nuances, and understanding these will help teams navigate this step with clarity and purpose.

Defining Impact

‘Impact’ refers to the significance or magnitude of an outcome’s effect on the development landscape. An outcome with high impact is one that could create widespread, long-lasting change—whether positive or negative.

To determine the impact of a driver outcome, teams should assess its potential to:

• Affect large populations or critical systems.
• Trigger cascading changes in other areas (e.g., political, economic, social, environmental, or technological systems).
• Challenge or reinforce existing development priorities.
• Introduce new opportunities or vulnerabilities that may not be part of current strategies.

Prompting Questions to Determine Impact:

• Who or what will be affected by this outcome? For example, If rural-to-urban migration accelerates, will it primarily impact urban infrastructure, public services, or marginalized communities?
• How widespread could the effects of this outcome be? Will it affect only urban centers, or will it ripple out to rural areas through reduced labor supply or changes in agricultural productivity?
• Will the outcome create systemic change? For example, Could rapid urbanization lead to long-term socioeconomic shifts, such as smaller families, a larger burden on income earners or women, etc.?

Prioritizing & Categorizing Driver Outcomes

Understanding Certainty

Certainty is not about predicting the likelihood of an outcome occurring—as you know already, no one has a crystal ball. Instead, certainty is about the degree of agreement among team members regarding the plausibility of the outcome. If there is significant disagreement, this indicates high uncertainty.

Prompting Questions for Certainty

• Is there consensus among the team about this outcome being plausible?
• What data or evidence supports this outcome? Are there trends or signals pointing to this outcome, or is it largely speculative?
• What factors contribute to uncertainty about this outcome?
• What assumptions underlie this outcome, and are they contested.

Outcomes with high certainty are those that:

• Align closely with current data or trends.
• Are seen as plausible and uncontroversial by most team members.
• Have been observed in similar contexts or are well-documented in research.

In contrast, outcomes with low certainty:

• Are characterized by disagreement or debate among team members.
• Reflect situations where data is ambiguous or trends are highly volatile.
• Are influenced by complex or poorly understood dynamics.

By carefully assessing impact and certainty, teams can prioritize outcomes to balance foresight and practicality, ensuring that critical challenges are neither overlooked nor underestimated. This framework helps ensure that planning efforts are comprehensive, proactive, and adaptive to future uncertainties.

Prioritizing & Categorizing Driver Outcomes

Once impact and certainty are assessed for each outcome, teams can place outcomes into the following categories to guide prioritization.

 

The two main categories of interest that we will take to the next step:

High—impact, High—Certainty Outcomes represent the outcomes that we expect in the future and that we need to plan for. The development challenges that arise out of these outcomes would be the ones we we would have likely identified with or without foresight exercises and we would have plenty of data to support them.

High-Uncertainty Outcomes These are the outcomes that would have emerged due to the analysis we have done in the previous steps. These outcomes may not have strong data to support it but they have a few signals of change that offer qualitative evidence regarding the possibility of occuring. The developmental challenges that emerge from these outcomes, when incorporated into the planning process, will enable teams to be better prepared for ‘surprises’.

Identify Implications

Introduction to the Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a foresight tool designed to map the cascading implications of a specific event, trend, or driver outcome. Developed by Jerome Glenn, it helps teams visualize the ripple effects that might emerge from a driver outcome, revealing both direct and indirect consequences.

By organizing these implications into concentric layers, the Futures Wheel provides a structured way to think about the broader impacts of change.

In this step, the Futures Wheel will be applied to the prioritized driver outcomes identified earlier.

Each prioritized outcome will serve as the central focus, and the team will collaboratively explore its implications. The goal is to generate a comprehensive understanding of how the outcome might shape the development context, ultimately helping the team identify potential development challenges.

The Futures Wheel is an essential step in foresight, helping teams systematically explore the
broader impacts of prioritized outcomes.

Mapping implications visually and collaboratively ensures that all dimensions of a driver outcome are considered, leading to richer insights and more robust development challenge identification. This structured process not only uncovers risks but also highlights opportunities, enabling teams to build proactive and future-ready strategies.

Identify Implications

Step 1

Place the Driver Outcome in the Center: Start by writing the prioritized driver outcome in the center of the Futures Wheel. For example, let’s say you’ve chosen to start with the high impact, high certainty outcome: “In ten years, the population in urban areas will double”. Place this in the centre of the Futures wheel.

Step 2

Ask participants to brainstorm the direct consequences of the driver outcome. These are the first order implications, which result immediately from the driver.

Prompting Questions:

• What happens directly as a result of this outcome?
• Who or what is affected immediately?

Step 3

From the first-order implications, brainstorm their second-order impacts, or what happens as a result of the first layer of change.

Prompting Questions:

What happens because of this first-order implication?

Step 4

If possible, extend the exercise to third order implications, which explore more systemic or long-term effects.

Prompting Question: What are the ripple effects of second-order implications?

Example of a Futures wheel

Below is a slightly edited version of a Futures Wheel created in a ‘Strategy Check-In’ session conducted by the UNDP Strategy and Futures Team for a high-impact, low-certainty possibility.

 

 

 

 

 

Identify Implications

Tips and Tricks for Using the Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a versatile tool enabling teams to systematically map the cascading implications of prioritized driver outcomes. Here are some important tips and tricks to maximize its effectiveness:

Assume Each Implication Happens and Build Forward

Begin by assuming the first implication is true, then ask: “What happens as a direct result of this?” This mindset ensures the exercise builds logically from one layer of implications to the next. For example, the Driver Outcome: Urban migration accelerates would lead to > 1st Order

Implication: Overcrowding in housing, which would lead to > 2nd Order Implication: Growth of informal settlements, which, in turn, would lead to > 3rd Order Implication: Increased inequality and health crises.

Think of both Positive and Negative Implications

Aim to identify at least one positive implication and one negative implication for every layer. This balance prevents participants from focusing solely on risks or benefits and ensures a nuanced view.

For example, a positive third-order implication could be that informal settlements might create vibrant, self-sufficient communities with innovative micro-economies. A negative Implication could be that these settlements might exacerbate social exclusion and strain public resources.

Be Specific and Concrete

Use precise language when articulating implications. Avoid vague terms like “affects”, “changes”, or “impacts.” Abstract or general implications will trigger even more abstract & general implications, resulting in a fuzzy, indistinct final product lacking clear insights. Instead, specify what changes, how, and for whom.

For example, a vague implication would be, "Overcrowding affects education”. Instead, a better, more specific implication would be “Overcrowding in informal settlements reduces school attendance rates due to long travel distances and lack of resources”.

Repetition and Contradictions are Okay

Repetition: If the same implication arises from multiple outcomes, this could indicate a systemic challenge that warrants extra attention. This is good and it means you might ne narrowing in on a development challenge. 

Contradictions: Conflicting implications can coexist, highlighting areas of uncertainty or potential tipping points.

For example, you might have one first-order implication as “Urban migration reduces rural labor
supply,” while another first-order implication could be “Rural innovation attracts reverse migration.”
Both implications could be useful to consider when looking at the development challenges and
opportunities of the future.

Cluster implications and Define Development challenges

After completing the Futures Wheel, document all implications. Using a participatory process, group similar or related implications into clusters or thematic groups. When clustering, it is usually a good idea to work with second—or third-order implications.

Identify patterns, overlaps, or recurring themes to uncover potential development challenges.

For the Rural-Urban Migration example, some clusters that could emerge are Urban Resilience: Challenges related to infrastructure, service delivery, and environmental sustainability or Social Equity: Risks of exclusion, marginalization, and inequality.

Draft Development Challenges

Use the clustered implications to articulate development challenges in clear, actionable terms. Translate the clusters into actionable development challenges. When framing a development challenge, it is important to provide clarity on:

• What the challenge is (concise name)
• Why it matters (connection to drivers and outcomes)
• How it affects the development context (implications)

A Working-Template to Frame and Name the Development Challenge

Development Challenge Framing Example

 

Key Takeaways

By using the Futures Wheel, teams can:

1. Systematically map the ripple effects of driver outcomes.
2. Uncover systemic risks and opportunities that may not be immediately apparent.
3. Generate actionable insights that can be synthesized into development challenges.

This structured approach ensures a thorough exploration of each driver outcome, creating a robust foundation for identifying challenges and informing strategic planning.

Example of a Development Challenge from the Futures wheel

In the process of ‘implication synthesis’, the team might see that food insecurity repeatedly emerges as a second- and third-order implication.

It’s interesting to note that irrespective of whether the driver outcome (an all out conflict, in this case) manifests in
the future, this exercise could highlight the poor state of agricultural productivity or the vulnerability of trade routes in the region.

Identifying Development Challenges Workshops

We suggest going through these steps with your team in two workshops, with a break between them to give participants time to reflect on the drivers and their possible outcomes. Below is a detailed outline of the possible workflows for each workshop.

Pre-Read for Participants

Prepare a brief, accessible document or presentation covering:

• What are drivers of change?
• How were these drivers identified?
• What is the purpose of the workshop?

Share the drivers in advance and encourage participants to consider: What outcomes might result if this driver develops in different ways?

Clarify the Objectives

1. Workshop 1: Focus on brainstorming the outcomes of prioritized drivers and classifying them as high-impact, high-certainty, or high-impact, low-certainty outcomes.
2. Workshop 2: Explore the implications of prioritized outcomes using the Futures Wheel.

Set Up Tools

Digital tools (if virtual): Miro, MURAL, or Jamboard for real-time collaboration. Physical setup (if in-person): Provide sticky notes, flip charts, and markers

Between Workshop 1 & Workshop 2 Preparation

• Synthesize Driver Outcomes. Review the workshop's output and combine any 'related' outcomes or remove overlaps, preparing the different outcomes for the next workshop.
• Synthesize Driver Prioritization Rationale. The discussion generated during the prioritization exercise is critical to capture as it will serve as an essential component of the CPD's content. The potential impact of the different driver outcomes could represent the rationale behind why UNDP chose to tackle one specific development challenge rather than another.
• Share the Synthesized Output. For the next workshop, it is important for participants to acclimatize themselves to the different outcomes discussed in Workshop 1, especially if certain outcomes were more contentious.

Set Up Tools for Workshop 2 Digital tools (if virtual): Miro, MURAL, or Jamboard for real-time collaboration
Physical setup (if in-person): Provide sticky notes, flip charts, and markers.

Example Workshop 1 Agenda

Please look at the example agenda we have provided below and modify it for your own purposes.

Welcome and Introductions (20 min)

Explain the objectives and outline the agenda.

Context Setting (20 min)

Present the drivers of change and explain how they were developed. Clarify what the participants will be doing. Also, encourage participants to avoid self-censoring and explore seemingly 'outlandish' driver outcomes.

Breakout Sessions: Brainstorm Driver Outcomes Part 1 (40 min)

In small groups, identify the possible outcomes for each driver. Each group could work on 2-4 drivers.

Break (10 min)

Breakout Sessions: Brainstorm Driver Outcomes Part 2 (40 min)

Rotate groups to review and add to the outcomes brainstormed by others.

Prioritize Outcomes (60-75 min)

In the plenary session, rank driver outcomes on Impact and Certainty.

Next Steps & Closing (15 min)

Explain next steps and prime participants to consider implications for different driver outcomes.

• Make sure to offer plenty of examples of what a 'driver outcome' looks like

• Have the facilitator play the role of the challenger and push participants to think about extreme outcomes based on the relevant signals of change

• Remember to offer clear guidance on assessing Impact and Certainty - you might have to offer a reminder at regular intervals in the exercise.

Example Workshop 2 Agenda

If possible, allow for at least 3–5 days between Workshop 1 and Workshop 2. This gives participants time to process the outcomes and reflect on potential implications.

Welcome and Recap (20 min)

Recap Workshop 1 and review the prioritized driver outcomes.

Introduction to the Futures Wheel (20 min)

Explain the Futures Wheel, how to use it.

Breakout Sessions: Futures Wheel Part 1 (60-75 min)

Divide participants into small groups and assign 5-6 driver outcomes to each group.

Break (10 min)

Breakout Sessions: Futures Wheel Part 2 (60 min)

Rotate groups to review and add to the implications brainstormed by others.

Clustering Implications into Development Challenges (60 min)

In the plenary session, cluster the second and third-order implications into themes that coalesce into specific development challenges.

Next Steps & Closing (15 min)

Clarify that the outcome of this workshop will be shared for additional input for finalization.

If you opted for Option 1, you can now move to the next chapter…

Outputs from this process offer a comprehensive view of the complexities and opportunities of the future. These challenges reflect risks and invitations to innovate, collaborate, and strategically position UNDP’s work in an uncertain world.

However, not all challenges can be addressed at once. The next step in this process is to prioritize these challenges, ensuring that the focus is aligned with UNDP’s mandate, comparative advantage, and the strategic needs of the country context.

With a long list of development challenges now identified, the focus shifts to determining which ones UNDP should prioritize.

In Chapter 4, we’ll explore tools, frameworks, and methodologies to systematically prioritize these challenges, ensuring that UNDP’s contributions are both impactful and future-ready.